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000
FXUS62 KJAX 181824
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
224 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING INTO NRN PORTION OF SE GA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ATLC SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AND SKIES CLEARING NEAR THE
COAST. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW A N-S LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND ALSO A
WIDER SWATH OVER SE GA WHERE THE EARLIER OUTFLOWS INTERACT WITH
THE SBRZ. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THIS EVENING AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE
ADDED UPPER SUPPORT AND INCREASED MOISTURE. SHOWERS WILL THEN
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL...IN THE MID 60S INLAND ANE NEAR 70 COAST.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...PWATS (PRECIP WATER) AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BEGIN AROUND NOON ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE INLAND AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SBRZ ADVANCE INLAND. HAVE POPS IN 40% RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO
GO HIGHER IF FORECAST MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND
AND LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF INTO THE TN VALLEY. AN IMPULSE ROLLING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE MAY ALSO ENHANCE STORMS ON MON AND HAVE SCTD POPS. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TUE/WED AND WILL KEEP ISOLD
TO SCTD STORMS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST THIS PERIOD.

THU-SAT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AOA
NORMAL THU/FRI...THEN POSSIBLY A FEW DEG COOLER SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE SCENE.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING AS SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. VCTS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL SITES 22Z-03Z WHEN HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THINGS WILL BE QUIESCENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT A BRIEF
WIND SURGE EACH NIGHT BRINGING WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  88  66  89 /  40  40  30  30
SSI  71  82  71  83 /  30  30  20  20
JAX  67  86  68  86 /  40  40  30  30
SGJ  69  83  70  82 /  20  30  20  20
GNV  65  89  65  88 /  50  40  30  40
OCF  66  90  67  88 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

TRABERT/SANDRIK/GUILLET