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000
FXUS62 KJAX 161740
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

...WARMER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS INLAND STARTING FRI...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN/EVENING...PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAM CREATED MOSTLY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTN. HIGH TEMPS WILL
TOP OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST WHERE THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL SOON BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND. A DRY
FORECAST STILL EXPECTED DUE TO DEPARTING MEAN LAYER SUBSIDENCE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT...PASSING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR A MILD NIGHT
AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW 60S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S COAST. A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF
COAST REGION

FRI/FRI NIGHT...A PASSING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING
MORNING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK UPPER RIDGING
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE AFTN...BUT THINK THAT THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH DIURNAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY FROM THE SEA
BREEZES TO POSSIBLY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORM OVER
INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HOURS...AND HAVE THUS
CONTINUED WITH 20% RAIN CHANCES. HIGHS WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 INLAND
TO LOW/MID 80S COAST UNDER A PREVAILING ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOSTLY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES

SAT/SAT NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL POSITION OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE WHILE ALOFT A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH POSITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRESENCE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZES WILL
BRING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED. THE NAM12 IS MORE MOIST THAN THE GFS40 FOR CONVECTION
SAT...AND WILL HEDGE IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE AND ADVERTISE 30%
RAIN CHANCES INLAND DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. WITH COOL TEMPS AT
500 MB OF -12 DEG C AND INCREASING SHEAR IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE
INTO THE AFTN...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR IN ISOLD STRONG
STORMS SAT AFTN WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER SE GA. CONVECTION WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET SAT EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...WITH
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH MINS SAT NIGHT IN THE 60S INLAND/70
COAST.

.LONG TERM...SUN THROUGH THU...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 INLAND UNDER A
PREVAILING LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AND EVENING ALONG THE SEA
BREEZES AND RESULTANT OUTFLOWS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW
SUN/MON WILL FOCUS THE SEA BREEZE MERGER BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND
INTERSTATE 75 THEN STEERING FLOW SHIFTS MORE ESE TUE-THU AS THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS POSITIONS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS REGIME
WILL FOCUS THE SEA BREEZE MERGER FARTHER INLAND TOWARD THE
INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
CONTINUED WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30% RANGE GIVEN FAIRLY WEAK
FORCING SINCE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING WILL BE KEPT NORTH OF THE
REGION AND LOW/MODEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.25-1.75
INCHES PER THE GFS40. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S EACH NIGHT
INLAND TO NEAR 70 TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR WITH HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE REPORTING MAINLY S TO SW WINDS AT THIS HOUR. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WATERS WILL MAINTAIN STATUS QUO WITH WINDS S-SE 15KT
OR LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING SWELLS CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK.
DECREASING SWELLS ON FRIDAY WILL POSSIBLY LOWER THE RISK.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  89  63  89 /  10  20  20  30
SSI  67  81  69  81 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  63  86  65  87 /   0   0  10  30
SGJ  65  82  68  84 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  61  89  63  89 /   0  20  20  30
OCF  62  90  64  89 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/TRABERT/CHASE