Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 260829
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...WRN
SD/ND AND ERN MT...SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH VALENTINE AND
ONEILL AREAS THIS MORNING PRODUCING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
SOME ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND
SOUTH.

A SECOND DISTURBANCE ACROSS WRN MT WILL BE AFFECTING WRN NEB TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. THE MODELS ARE VERY BULLISH WITH THE PCPN
ENCOMPASSING A LARGE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA GIVEN THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 6-7 WEEKS. BUT WE WILL RUN A MODEL BLEND FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. LESS THAN 1/10 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AFFECTED AREAS.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MOVE SOUTH TODAY TO NEAR
WINNIPEG AND THEN INTO SRN ONTARIO BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO BACK INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FROM VALENTINE TO ONEILL.
50S TO NEAR 60 ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. MODEL PLUMES SHOW STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS SWRN NEB...20 TO 30
MPH WINDS.

A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS WRN NEB AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO ONTARIO. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 ARE EXPECTED WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER HOLDING UP THE RADIATIONAL COOLING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

FRIDAY MORNING BEGINS WITH INHERITED POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS
PERIOD. AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF COVERAGE OR QPF
AS MOISTURE IS PRETTY SCARCE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. ANY PRECIP
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL VARY GREATLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS ALOFT AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. BEHIND
THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE WEST/NORTHWEST AND UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS WILL PROMOTE DEEP MIXING AND HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DESPITE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
FURTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER
AS H85 REMAIN AROUND 0C TO 5C.

A ROBUST PV MAX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON SATURDAY AND
FLATTENS THE RIDGE. THE ATTENDANT SFC LOW REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. HOWEVER IT WILL PUSH A DRYLINE INTO THE CWA AS HEIGHTS FALL
AND WINDS BECOME WEST/SOUTHWEST...ADVECTING A DRIER AIR MASS OFF THE
FRONT RANGE. THE DRYLINE LOOKS TO SET UP NEAR HWY 83 DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRY LINE THAN THE OTHER
MODELS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL
GO AHEAD AND FAVOR A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION. THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE DRYLINE IS IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS ON LOCAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE SATURDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES THROUGH
THE CWA. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BL WELL
MIXED AND RELATIVELY MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE GFS EVEN
HAS SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LI/S. A FEW MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF OVER
WESTERN NEBRASKA...HOWEVER STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT ANY POPS IN
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MOISTURE STARVED SETUP.

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE TUESDAY AS H85 TEMPS INCREASE TO 18C TO
20C IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PV MAX EJECTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA.
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...SO HIGH FIRE
DANGER WILL BE A CONCERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

VISUAL FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
FOR THURSDAY MORNING...A FRONT COMING INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA WILL
BRING SOME LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH LIGHT RAINSHOWERS...
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...WIND 250-280 WILL INCREASE TO
12-14G19-22KT BY 16Z IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA. BEHIND
THE FRONT...WIND WILL BECOME 320-360 AT 16-20G26-30KT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA. IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...THE WIND
SHIFT WILL OCCUR 20-23Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

SATURDAY COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. A DRY LINE BULGE SHOULD SWEEP EAST IN THE
AFTN SENDING RH VALUES INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WINDS ALOFT AT 700 MB
INCREASE TO 30 KTS IN THE NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR
30 MPH. ERRORS IN MODEL TIMING...THE MODELS COULD BE TOO FAST...
MAKE THIS FORECAST UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. A POWERFUL COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE DROPPING THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTN WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THE STRONG WEST WINDS ACROSS WRN NEB SATURDAY AFTN.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...SPRINGER
FIRE WEATHER...CDC







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