Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 230010 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
710 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The RAP, HRRR and HRRR exp are generating a diurnally driven area of
showers and thunderstorms across the Panhandle late this afternoon
which drifts into Wrn Neb this evening. POPs are limited to isolated
chances because the upper level forcing is weak.

Otherwise the ongoing area of showers and isolated thunderstorms
across ncntl Neb should move off east this evening. The
aforementioned models were the basis for this forecast.

The forecast is dry late tonight and Sunday a weak area of "cooler"
air moves into wrn/ncntl Neb. The temperature forecast tonight uses
blended bias corrected MET/MAV guidance for lows in the upper 50s to
around 60. Highs Sunday are a blend of guidance from the GFS, NAM
and ECM plus bias correction. This marked highs up a bit and picks
up on a "hot spot" around Valentine for highs in the mid 90s. The
area around Valentine has missed out on much of the rainfall this
summer.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Heat wave conditions appear to set up Monday across Wrn Neb. Sfc low
pressure will be tucked up across Wrn SD and this would normally
focus the warmest h700mb temperatures and deeper mixing along and
west of highway 61. However, the drought has cured the Sandhills
and bias corrected model data suggests 90s to around 100 will focus
farther east, along highway 83.

Sfc low pressure moves into ern SD Tuesday fanning the warm air
advection throughout Wrn and Ncntl Neb. H700mb temperatures rise to
around 15C which could support 105F in some areas. The forecast is
more modest for now with highs in the 90s to low 100s as suggested
by the models.

A strong Pacific cold front moves through Wednesday and rain chances
are in place, 30-40 percent. Actually, the atmosphere may blow apart
across Nrn Neb Tuesday afternoon where CAPE values could be 3000-
5000 J/KG. The shear will be weak with h500mb winds around 20 kt.

Generally cool weather is indicated Thursday through Saturday with
mostly isolated rain chances. In the wake of the cold front
Wednesday, moisture appears to be piling up on Colorado Front Range
and Laramie range which could spark thunderstorm activity across
Swrn Neb and the Panhandle.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Isolated thunderstorms will continue over the Nebraska Panhandle
between KIEN and KSNY. Storms should dissipate with the heating of
the day. Skies will clear from northwest to southeast tonight as
surface high pressure builds in to western Nebraska. Winds will be
light and variable through Sunday.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power


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