Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 232323 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
623 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

H5 analysis from this morning, had a closed low over
southern Minnesota with shortwaves located over northern Kansas,
southwestern Colorado and western South Dakota. Ht. falls in
association with this low were most pronounced across northeastern
Kansas into eastern Iowa. As of midday, based on satellite imagery,
the low was located near Jackson Minnesota. At the surface, a decent
pressure gradient was located across the central and northern plains
this afternoon and this resulted in gusty northerly winds. Winds
were gusting in the 25 to 35 MPH range this afternoon. Skies were
mostly cloudy as surface heating and steep lapse rates have been
favorable for cloud development this afternoon. Across northeastern
portions of the forecast area, a shield of clouds was noted as it is
in much closer in proximity to the upper level low. Temperatures
were early April like with readings in the upper 50s to around 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Tonight and Wednesday...In the short term, temperatures
and frost potential tonight are the main forecasting concerns. For
tonight: Gusty northerly winds will diminish quickly by mid evening
as temperatures cool and mixing subsides. Overnight, high pressure
will build south from the Dakotas into central Nebraska. Clear skies
and light winds will allow temperatures to fall into the 30s tonight
across western and north central Nebraska. The latest temperature
guidance this morning came in 1 to 2 degrees cooler than the
inherited forecast. With light westerly winds expected overnight,
trended lows toward the cooler guidance which tends to verify
better. That being said, with the cooler temps, am expecting areas
of frost to develop in the northeastern panhandle and northwestern
Sandhills overnight. Am planning on issuing a frost advisory for
Sheridan and Western Cherry county. Elsewhere, patchy frost is
expected across portions of the western Sandhills, portions of north
central Nebraska and along the Platte River Valley. Temperatures in
these areas will bottom out in the mid 30s with lower 30s expected
in the northeastern panhandle and northwestern Sandhills.
Temperatures will rebound quickly Wednesday morning. Winds will
swing around to the south in the afternoon and with full sun, highs
will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Mid range...Wednesday night through Friday night...An upper level
low will track across southern Canada, forcing a surface trough
through the forecast area late Wednesday night into Thursday. Low
level moisture will be lacking with this system and should be a
dry trough passage for the most part. There is a slim chance for a
stray shower in the east Thursday afternoon and have held onto
slight chances in these areas. Further west, for Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night, a shortwave trough will lift across
the southern Rockies. As this feature crosses into eastern
Colorado, the threat for thunderstorms will increase Thursday
afternoon into Thursday night. The main threat is mainly across
the southern half of the forecast area as it will be in closest
proximity to a warm frontal boundary across central Kansas. At
this time, the threat for severe storms is fairly low with the
exception of far southwestern Nebraska where a marginal risk
encompass Chase, Hayes and Frontier counties. A secondary
shortwave will slide into Kansas and far southern Nebraska on
Friday into Friday night with the greatest threat for rain across
the southern half of the forecast area.

Saturday through Tuesday...On Saturday, one final disturbance will
track across the central plains. This will generate another round of
showers and thunderstorms across Kansas and far southern Nebraska.
Like yesterday, am favoring the drier EC solution as it has the
surface warm front over far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma.
This would favor the heaviest precipitation over Kansas. Further
north, drier air will push into the forecast area from the northwest
and should limit precipitation chances. Northwest flow aloft will
continue into end of the weekend and into the early part of next
week. This will favor mainly dry and cool conditions across the area
for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

VFR is expected all areas overnight through 00z Wednesday evening.

The area of VFR cigs across Ncntl Neb are expected to gradually
dissipate this evening. Some models suggest they may last through
12z Wednesday morning but not the model`s have been over-
forecasting MVFR which never materialized. Thus, the CIGS are
likely the result of daytime heating and should diminish after
sunset.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 4 AM CDT /3 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/
Wednesday for NEZ004-005-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Buttler
SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Buttler
AVIATION...CDC


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