Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 250541
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1241 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Tonight and Wednesday...the models are in good agreement lifting a
h700mb warm front into Srn Neb tonight. Satellite suggests the front
is lifting through Nern Colo and Nwrn KS this aftn. The threat of
severe weather this evening hinges on storm development over Nern
Colo. The HRRR and RAP models suggest an isolated severe storm could
move east through Colo and into Swrn Neb. Perhaps of bigger concern
is the NAM is developing discrete convection across Swrn Neb this
aftn and this evening which could easily become severe if dew points
rise into the 60s...perhaps a stretch but a storm or two could
develop with dew points in the upper 50s.

Presumably...other convection will fire across the Panhandle this
evening and move east as advertised by the models. This activity
should move east and coalesce with the ongoing storm development
across Swrn Neb to form a tstm complex which sweeps east overnight.
The severity of this complex is uncertain as it could become outflow
dominant and more ordinary.

WPC has outlooked Swrn Neb for excessive rainfall tonight. This
would result from HP supercell development which is advertised by
the HRRR and NAM. It is also noted that the shear is expected to
weaken late this evening which would cause storms to
backbuild...split and cause multicell development. PWATs increase to
1.5 inches along and east of highway 83 in both the NAM and RAP
models. This about 200 percent of normal.

Quiet weather is expected Wednesday in the wake of the storm
activity tonight. Highs rise 75 to 85 and a weak area of Pacific
high pressure builds into the fcst area. This should produce light
northwest winds.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Thursday through Tuesday will remain active as shortwave
disturbances continue to be ejected northeast across the region.
meanwhile, a longwave trough will persist across the west coast,
as energy dives southeast from the Gulf of Alaska.

The highest chances will occur Thursday night, Friday and Friday
night. This will be due to an upper trough and closed low passing
Colorado Thursday night, then western Nebraska Friday and Friday
night. An additional threat for severe weather Thursday afternoon
and evening, as a surface low and warm front extends from nwrn
Kansas across central Nebraska. Another disturbance is forecast to
cross the region Memorial Day and Monday night for increased
chances for thunderstorms.

High temperatures Thursday in the mid 70s cool into the lower 70s
by Friday before rebounding back into the lower 80s Sunday. Low
temperatures remain fairly steady in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed May 25 2016

There will be a lingering threat for thunderstorms through 09z at
both the KLBF and KVTN terminals. Skies will clear overnight with
only scattered high clouds possible on Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

North Platte river...additional releases of 500 to 1000 cfs
from lake McConaughy are planned. This is a result of higher than
expected snow melt in the mountains feeding the North Platte river
and the Wyoming reservoir system. The MBRFC is preparing new
forecasts for the North Platte river. Higher river levels are
expected.

High river flows will continue on the South Platte river. The
combined flow of the North and South Platte rivers will continue to
produce flooding on the Platte river near Brady.

&&

.LBF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler
HYDROLOGY...CDC



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