Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 182333 AAA
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
533 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Active weather arrives tonight across portions of northern Nebraska
as a cold front drops south out of the northern Plains. This front
will impact first impact northern Nebraska tonight, before slowly
dropping south and impacting portions of central and south central
Nebraska.

For tonight...Precipitation will start across the northern border by
early evening and will likely start off as a wintry mix with a
slight chance of some freezing drizzle or light freezing rain while
temperatures remain above freezing. As temperatures drop by mid to
late evening, precipitation will change over to all snow. Overnight,
snow totals across Sheridan and western Cherry counties could total
between 1 to 3 inches. Even though amounts are minimal, northerly
winds are expected to increase overnight with gusts up to 25 to 30
mph. This will cause additional travel hazards as blowing snow will
cause visibility reductions. Caution should be exercised if
traveling across northern Sheridan county tonight.

For Monday...Snow chances will very slowly shift southward
throughout the day Monday. The best chance for accumulating snow
will be north of a line from Oshkosh to Thedford to O`Neill. Another
1 to 2 inches is expected across the northern portions of Sheridan
and western Cherry counties. Amounts decrease as one heads
southward. Have opted to keep in a few pockets of light freezing
rain/freezing drizzle across portions of the eastern Panhandle.
Models provide enough of a warm layer to support a mention, however,
confidence is not very high in development. Winds will decrease
slightly on Monday, however, they will remain out of the north. Wind
gusts on Monday afternoon will rise to near 18 to 22 mph across the
forecast area. Although winds will be lighter than on Sunday night,
visibility restrictions will still be possible, especially across
the north, as snow continues to fall throughout the day. Roads are
expected to be snow covered and slippery as well, adding to the
hazardous travel conditions. Snow will eventually reach the North
Platte area late Monday afternoon. No accumulations are expected
along or south of the I-80 corridor before Monday evening as the
majority of the snow will fall across the southern region after
6pm.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Arctic high pressure, currently over the Canadian Northwest
Territory is moving south and the leading edge of this airmass
entered northwest Neb this morning.

The models appear to have settled on a solution for the impending
winter weather and impressive cold spell. A heavy snowband is
underway across northeast WY which will affect Wrn SD and Nwrn Neb
this afternoon and overnight. A second heavy snowband is expected to
form Monday across Nwrn Neb which will affect ncntl Neb Monday night
and Tuesday morning.

This morning`s model consensus shows h850mb temperatures have fallen
again to less than -20C across nrn Neb which would produce single
digit highs across Nrn Neb Monday and Tuesday. Lows fall well below
zero Tuesday and Wednesday morning. The result will be wind chill
readings of -10F to -35F Monday through Wednesday morning with snow
falling Monday into Tuesday morning.

The midlevel frontogenesis in the GFS, SREF and ECM continue to be
strong. Despite the very warm temperatures this afternoon, the
models suggest the arctic air may not be very shallow Monday but
still moist and favorable for snow growth until Tuesday morning.
The GFS, ECM and Canadian GEM regional models suggest the potential
for inch an hour accumulations Monday night and the plume derived
median QPF across Sheridan county has increased to about 0.5 inches
of liquid; about a tenth higher than yesterday. The same plume at
Valentine indicates a wide spread, low predictability and a median
of around 0.3 inches.

The NAM and SREF are the drier solutions and these models move dry
air into nrn Neb which limits snow accumulations.

There is little change in the snow forecast. The blend of models and
very high snow-water ratios produces 6 to 10 inches of snow across
Sheridan County and wrn Cherry County which is close to the WPC
forecast. The Winter Storm Watch for Cherry county has been
downgraded to a winter weather advisory. A Winter Weather advisory
is in place for Monday night and Tuesday morning across parts of wrn
and ncntl Neb. This is the period when the models show a significant
snow band developing.

A few models and datasets are showing heavy snow south of what is
currently forecast. The Gridded MOS, which is a statistical product
derived from the GFS, continues to indicate heavy snow in Valentine
predicting 10 inches at this location. If this is correct, then
later model runs of the deterministic models will catch up to the
guidance which would necessitate the Winter Storm Warning in this
areas and perhaps elsewhere farther east across ncntl Neb. The GFS
ensemble also suggests a more expansive area of heavy snow across
ncntl Neb and the Canadian regional model indicates a narrow band of
6 to 12 inches snow setting up Monday night across a large area
stretching from Hayes Center to Butte. So the forecast across ncntl
Neb still remains somewhat uncertain.

The arctic high will move slowly across the nrn Plains and ridge
through the cntl Plains this week. Thus, the cold weather will last
in Thursday with modest warming Friday and Saturday. A broad
longwave trof will be forming across the Wrn U.S. this week and this
unsettled pattern is expected to send a series of weak disturbances
capable of light snow through wrn/ncntl Neb.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Stratus with MVFR cigs and areas of light snow are over
northwestern Nebraska. These cigs will move to the southeast over
night into southern Nebraska. Strong north winds will continue
over western Nebraska through tonight.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for
NEZ004-094.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Monday to noon
CST /11 AM MST/ Tuesday for NEZ005>010-022>025.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kulik
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...Power



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