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000
FXUS63 KLBF 101745
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1245 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming windy by this afternoon with widely scattered
  showers. Windy conditions continue tonight through Thursday.

- Quite warm with temperatures rising well above seasonal
  normals by the end of the week and through the weekend.
  Potential for readings into the 80s Saturday and Sunday.

- Increasing concern for elevated to near critical fire weather
  conditions through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Conditions are quiet across central and western Nebraska early this
morning with just some mid and high clouds overhead. However a
weak cold front will be move through Nebraska this afternoon.
Winds aloft will be increasing and once diurnal heating is able
to mix the boundary layer winds will become quite gusty through
this afternoon with potential for gusts of 25 to 35mph by late
in the day. Low level moisture is quite limited but mid level
moisture and forcing is sufficient to support some isolated to
widely scattered showers across central and western Nebraska
mainly along and west of Hwy 83. Low and mid level lapse rates
are steep and the boundary layer will be deeply mixed, though
instability is lacking with ensemble mean CAPE values generally
at or below 150 J/kg. So while there is only an outside chance
for thunder at 10% or less, any showers that form will have
potential to produce accelerating downdrafts with efficient
downward momentum transfer yielding potential for localized
gusts to 45mph of more. A good surge of wind comes in behind the
front with a short wave tonight, especially along and east of
Hwy 8, with strong gusty winds persisting through Thursday,
especially along and east of Hwy 83.

Temperatures today will vary a good bit west to east across the
region. Highs will range from the middle 50s from the sandhills
into the panhandle to the middle and upper 60s further to the
southeast. A bit cooler behind the front tomorrow with highs
generally in the mid to upper 50s and some lower 60s south of
I-80. Lows will generally be in the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Confidence in the forecast through the end of the week and into
the weekend is high as ensemble guidance remains in good
agreement and there has been little change in trends over the
last several days. A ridge will strengthen over the western US,
then move through the Rockies and into the Plains by the weekend.
This will bring us dry conditions with a notable warm-up for
the end of the week and through the weekend. Temperatures aloft
will rise into 90th percentile by Saturday and EFI/SoT guidance
shows a good signal for warmth through the weekend. The end
result will be high temperatures by Friday rising into the 70s
for much of central and western Nebraska, followed by fairly
widespread readings into the 80s for the weekend. It will also
be just a bit breezy with the warm-up as probabilistic guidance
shows 50th percentile gusts of generally 20 to 30 mph. The
combination of temperatures well above normal, dry weather, and
breezy winds will lead to increasing fire concerns with potential
for near critical conditions from the end of the week and through
the weekend.

By Monday a large closed low will move out of the southwestern
US and into the southern Rockies. This will push the warm upper
ridge axis to our east and bring an increasing chance for
showers and thunderstorms from Sunday night and into the first
part of next week. There will be a convective nature to the
precipitation and much will depend on exactly where the center
of the low tracks, though specifics in the track are uncertain
at this time. Expect the forecast regarding precipitation
potential for the first part of next week to change in the days
ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Main aviation
concern will be strong synoptic winds developing this afternoon
and increasing this evening behind a frontal passage. Gusts
around 35 knots are possible this evening through early morning
Thursday.

Secondary concern will be convective showers leading to sporadic
wind gusts. At this time, coverage should remain isolated and
therefore may miss either terminal completely. Will continue to
monitor and amend as necessary. Should a shower impact a
terminal, gusts up to 45 knots cannot be ruled out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Despite widely scattered showers and minimum humidity values this
afternoon generally at or above 30 percent, there is potential for
near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon primarily driven
by strong gusty winds behind a cold front of 30 to 40 mph by late in
the day.

Strong gusty winds will continue tonight through Thursday and gradually
become more focused east of Hwy 83. Humidity will also be dropping with
minimum values generally 15 to 20 percent, though a bit higher further
to the northwest. With the continued gusty winds and lower humidity,
there is potential for critical fire weather conditions. A Fire Weather
Watch has been issued for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening for
fire zones 206, 208, 209, and 219, with the highest confidence in critical
conditions being across zones 209 and 219.

There is potential for elevated to near critical fire conditions from
the end of the week and through the weekend. Temperatures will be much
warmer with many locations rising at or above 80F. Humidity will be
a bit drier, especially on Saturday, though winds will be a bit lighter
with afternoon gusts of 20 to 30 mph.

Chances for wetting rainfall start to increase by Sunday night and into
the first part of next week.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for NEZ206-208-209-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...NMJ
FIRE WEATHER...MBS