Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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204 FXUS64 KAMA 101703 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1203 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Saturday night) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Latest 08Z satellite analysis shows the main H500 cut off low centered near Zion National Park. A residual perturbation from earlier this morning has produced a few showers across the western and central Panhandles, but should dissipate by sunrise. As the aforementioned low slowly begin to drift towards the Four Corners Region by later tonight, coupled with easterly sfc upslope flow throughout the day today aided by decent moisture advection lee off the Sangre de Cristos, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop for portions of the western Panhandles later this afternoon into the evening hours. As the H850 & H500 jet becomes somewhat more distinguished later tonight, more showers and thunderstorms should spread into the Panhandles from New Mexico. The best chances of rainfall overall for the Panhandles will be overnight tonight into the first half of the coming weekend tomorrow. The main H500 low will finally begin to re-enter the main steering flow as the better lift and dynamics moves across the Panhandles. Some areas may get repeated rounds of beneficial rain and perhaps some thunderstorms. Instability for thunderstorms is somewhat limited throughout the short term forecast period. But it is May, and with any established updraft in an environment with very cold H500 temps, could see some small hail in the more robust storms that develop. High temperatures today and tomorrow will range from the mid 60s in the west to upper 70s in the east. Meccariello && .LONG TERM ... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Rain may be ongoing Sunday morning for a portion of the Panhandles. Latest GFS and ECMWF suggest that some clearing may occur in the western/northwestern combined Panhandles as a surface low pressure develops in the vicinity of the western TX Panhandle. The cyclonic flow would act to create downsloping westerly surface winds through the western TX Panhandle with southerly surface winds in the east, creating a surface trough. Additional showers and possible thunderstorms are favored to develop Sunday afternoon as additional lobes of vorticity swing through the base of the upper-level trough. If enough clearing can occur in the eastern Panhandles and the cap is able to be breached, a strong to severe thunderstorm would be possible. There is low confidence in that occurring though. In all, from Sunday morning to Monday morning, the greatest precipitation totals are favored to be in the eastern combined Panhandles with a 30-40% chance of exceeding 0.50" of rain, and probabilities decrease with westward extent with Amarillo having a roughly 5% chance of exceeding 0.50" in that 24 hour period. All that said, NAM develops a weak surface low in southeastern Colorado which keeps the Panhandles in southerly flow throughout the day. This solution would still favor rain and possible thunderstorms, but would result in persistent cloud cover throughout the day and temperatures staying in the 60s with little to no threat for severe thunderstorms. Nonetheless, a cold front moves through Sunday night as the trough begins to depart. Temperatures begin to warm back into the 70s on Monday and 80s on Tuesday. An upper-level trough approaches the Panhandles later on Tuesday and surface winds turn southerly, drawing low-level moisture back into the Panhandles. Wednesday will be the next chance for rain for the area and it is that time of year where a strong to severe thunderstorm threat can`t be ruled out, but it`s too early to discuss details. Significant differences in the deterministic models and their respective ensemble means appear quickly after Wednesday`s weather system. Vanden Bosch && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Rain showers and even isolated thunderstorms push into the western panhandles this afternoon and evening. While this is not expected to impact any terminal today there is a very small chance that KDHT can be impacted. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of today and early morning hours. By mid morning of Saturday rain showers and thunderstorms will spread across the panhandles and become more numerous. All terminals will have a chance for rain and thunderstorms through this time. Conditions have a high chance to become MVFR as low clouds settle across the panhandles starting during the mid morning impacting all terminals. While the chances are very low strong storms with hail and damaging winds cannot be fully ruled out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 51 68 51 72 / 10 60 70 80 Beaver OK 50 78 52 74 / 10 20 50 80 Boise City OK 47 66 47 71 / 20 70 60 70 Borger TX 52 74 54 76 / 10 50 60 80 Boys Ranch TX 50 70 51 76 / 20 70 70 70 Canyon TX 51 67 50 72 / 20 60 70 70 Clarendon TX 53 69 53 69 / 10 50 60 90 Dalhart TX 46 67 46 73 / 20 70 70 60 Guymon OK 48 73 50 73 / 10 40 60 80 Hereford TX 51 69 51 76 / 20 70 70 60 Lipscomb TX 52 77 53 72 / 10 10 60 80 Pampa TX 51 72 53 71 / 10 30 60 80 Shamrock TX 53 73 53 69 / 10 20 60 90 Wellington TX 54 72 53 69 / 10 30 50 90 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...98