160
FXUS64 KBRO 081939
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
239 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Key Message:

-Hot and unseasonably warm temperature are expected through the
short term.

-A Heat Advisory is in effect today until 7 PM for inland Cameron,
inland Willacy, inland Kenedy, Hidalgo and Brooks counties.

-A Heat Advisory has been issued for Thursday from 1 PM to 7 PM for
inland Cameron, inland Willacy, inland Kenedy counties.

The going forecast remains on track with the main story for the
short term remains the unseasonably warm temperatures across Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Continued zonal to slightly
southwesterly flow aloft will maintain subsidence aloft, and keep
higher moisture content near the surface.

Temperatures are expected to be even warmer on Thursday, with highs
in the triple digits, away from the coast. The combination of high
temperatures and dewpoints will make "real feel" temperatures on
Thursday to rise to between 105 degrees and 113 degrees. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for inland Cameron, inland Willacy and
inland Kenedy counties for Thursday afternoon. Models continue to
indicate a dryline inching eastward tomorrow afternoon will drop
dewpoint levels enough that a Heat Advisory will not be needed
further west. Overnight temperatures will once again remain in the
mid to upper 70s.

Outsize of the heat, hazy conditions will continue, mainly along the
eastern half of the CWA, as southerly winds continue to bring in
smoke from the fires in Mexico and Central America.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

A cold front is expected to approach Deep South Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley Friday morning. Once the front pushes through,
temperatures are expected to be more seasonable in the upper 80s and
lower 90s for the region. While the surface winds will shift behind
the front towards the northeast, they will quickly shift back
towards the east by Saturday and then southeast by Sunday. This will
allow for temperatures to heat up again as the frontal boundary
retreats backwards as a warm front. As such, temperatures will be
back to being above normal with highs mostly in the mid to upper 90s
and some places in the triple digits by Monday and lasting through
the rest of the long term forecast period. Meanwhile, the overnight
low temperatures are expected to be in the 70s.


Plenty of low-level moisture along with a bit of forcing and
instability could support the development of showers and
thunderstorms during the passage of the cold front on Friday. A bit
of a weak overrunning will support isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the weekend. The return of the onshore flow on
Sunday could also help a bit with the development of showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Clouds are beginning to break up across the aerodromes with MVFR
conditions prevailing at HRL and VFR at BRO and MFE through this
afternoon. Though HRL could also see some brief periods of VFR,
if visibilities improve. MVFR ceiling will return later this
evening into the overnight, with IFR expected at BRO.
Southerly to southeasterly winds will remain moderate with gust of
around 20 to 25 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Tonight through Thursday Night...Moderate southeast winds and
moderate seas will prevail through the forecast period. Tonight,
we could see some patchy fog/hazy conditions on the Gulf waters.
Brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be
possible in the afternoon, especially across the Laguna Madre due
to elevated winds.

Friday through Next Wednesday...Stronger northeasterly winds are
expected to prevail in the wake of the cold front that will move
over the Lower Texas Coast on Friday into Saturday. Small Craft
Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisories are possible for Friday
afternoon. Winds are then expected to weaken on Saturday, with light
to moderate winds and moderate seas prevailing along the Lower Texas
Coast through the rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78 102  77  92 /   0   0   0  10
HARLINGEN               77 106  75  91 /   0   0   0  10
MCALLEN                 78 107  77  95 /   0   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         77 109  76  95 /   0   0   0  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      79  88  78  83 /   0   0   0  10
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     78  99  76  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250-251-253>255-
     353.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ251-254-255.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...68-McGinnis