Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 201454
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
854 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Updated the forecast to increase sky cover in our far southeast as
stratus has crept farther northwest than originally anticipated.
It might stick around for much of the day in our far southeast.
May have to adjust temperatures down a bit in that area as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Today...Should be a little cooler with a light north wind, but
still not bad with highs above normal in the 40s around the Tri-
Cities to the lower 50s over north central Kansas.

Tonight...A major winter storm system will start to take shape
over the Rocky Mountains, which will draw moisture northward
through the plains. Expect low clouds to move in and thicken after
midnight with fog and freezing drizzle likely forming in some of
our eastern and southeastern counties prior to dawn. This will
spread into the remainder of our forecast area as we head through
Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 404 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Summary of upcoming storm system...
The storm system will likely have a rather sizable 6-10 inch
swath of snow. There has been a slight shift northwestward in the
storm track over the past 12 to 18 hrs confining the heaviest snow
band to our far northwestern counties and areas even further
northwest of our forecast area. The watch was upgraded to a winter
storm warning where confidence is highest in the 6 plus inch
snowfall amounts across our northwestern zones. Uncertainty in
snowfall amounts is higher further southeast and thus the watch
continues for now in these areas. Could see a few more of these
counties upgraded to a warning especially the further northwest
you go, while the southeastern most counties in the watch may end
up getting a winter weather advisory. Will allow the day shift to
review the new forecast model runs to see if there is any
correction in the track back to the southeast today or if this
more northwesterly track holds.

Discussed the possibility of issuing a blizzard warning with
neighboring offices to our west for counties along our western
forecast area border. There will likely be a lot of wind with
this system at 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. This could
certainly turn into an outright blizzard if this snow band and
wind come together as expected. Just didn`t feel confident enough
to go with a blizzard warning yet and thus the decision was to
upgrade to a winter storm warning with the possibility of a
future upgrade to a blizzard warning if forecast models remain
consistent over the next few runs. The track will be vary
important and there are still a good number of ensemble members
that take the heaviest snow band a little further southeast
through the Tri- Cities, so we really need to see how things
evolve in these final hours as the system strengthens over the
Rockies.

Monday morning...
This storm system becomes very strong and deep by Monday morning
and this is when much of our forecast area will see the strongest
winds. Could see this system slowing down a bit more with
snow possibly not ending until Monday afternoon in some areas,
especially across northeastern zones. Am also concerned that the
snow might be a little heavier Monday morning than currently
indicated by model QPF given the expected location of the upper
low and the overall expected strength of this very wrapped up
system. Bottom line is that this system may be very impactful to
the start of the school/work week. The key will be the storm track
and staying up to date with the latest information.

Freezing drizzle...
Should also mention that the freezing drizzle is a pretty
legitimate threat on Sunday that could result in a lot of
problems. The big question on Sunday will be the high
temperatures. The raw NAM temperatures are cold and below
freezing for most of our forecast area and thus would be more
problematic. The superblend temperatures seem too warm and we went
a little cooler than the blend, but maybe should have gone colder
yet. The drizzle/freezing drizzle line will be critical and
confidence on this line is a little weak. If anything I question
if we will see as much warming as we are currently indicating.

Tuesday through Friday...Did not spend much time on this portion
of the forecast given the more pressing storm system. Overall
expect we should melt some snow during this period with the next
storm system slated for the Friday night or Saturday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 539 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

VFR conditions will continue through around midnight with rapidly
deteriorating weather conditions after midnight as we near dawn
Sunday morning. Ceilings will likely fall into the LIFR range with
freezing drizzle possible during this same time period.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
     for NEZ041-048-049-062>064-074>077-083>086.

     Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to noon CST Monday for
     NEZ039-040-046-047-060-061-072-073-082.

KS...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning
     for KSZ005-006-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heinlein
SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...Wesely



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