Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 221054
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
554 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWESTELRY FLOW HAS BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT THIS LIGHT RAIN SHIELD TO PUSH
ACROSS THE LOCAL COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LIGHT...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA BEING
PAINTED WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP...WITH AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST TOTALS. EVEN
SO...BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF AN INCH OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY
ALL THAT WILL ACCUMULATE IN THE WETTEST SPOTS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH
WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE BY THIS EVENING.

AS WE THEN MAKE OUR WAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. AS A RESULT...THE
MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE
IN MOST SPOTS. IN ADDITION...CIGS SHOULD LOWER AS CONTINUED
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
OUR DIRECTION...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG FORMATION NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. SREF PROBS ARE INDICATING THAT WE SHOULD HAVE AN
ELEVATED CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION...AND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION...THIS SEEMS LOGICAL...SO MAINTAINED A LIGHT FOG MENTION
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE MODIFIES SOME
OVERNIGHT...WE CAN EXPECT SOME MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO
BUILD...WHICH IF A FORCING MECHANISM CAN BE REALIZED...WE COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT DOES JUSTIFY AT LEAST A MENTION OF AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT...SO ALSO MAINTAINED THIS IN THE
FORECAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING AS BOTH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES/TYPES APPEAR TO REMAIN ON TRACK.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.

LOOKING AT THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY...OVERALL THERE HASNT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST. WHILE NOT EXPECTING NON STOP PRECIPITATION...THE CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING DETAILS OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH.

THIS TIME FRAME STARTS OUT SATURDAY MORNING WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING SWRLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING
EXTENDS N/NW FROM THE GULF COAST REGION...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INCREASED
LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION VIA A
BROAD SRLY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN PRECIPITATION TO BE ONGOING
ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING IT
POTENTIALLY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. TO THE S/SW OF THE
CWA...A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW WILL
BE GRADUALLY MAKING ITS WAY N/NE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THIS LOOKS TO
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAVING MOVED
FURTHER INTO COLORADO. LATEST RUN HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY HAVE MORE OF A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION...ESP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH AND A DRY SLOT
PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME CHANCE THAT ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING MAY JUST BE DRIZZLE...BUT WILL SEE IF
THAT MODEL TREND CONTINUES. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY...ANOTHER
ROUND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SPREADING A BIT AS WE GET INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THE ECMWF OPENS THE PATTERN UP...PUSHING THE WAVE
GRADUALLY EAST...THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED AND MOVES NORTH INTO
THE WRN DAKOTAS. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF HAS A BIT MORE QPF ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT HARD TO BUY FULL INTO ANY PARTICULAR MODEL RUN AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTION AS ISOLATED SAT/SAT
NIGHT...BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR BETTER INSTABILITY TO
START WORKING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND BEYOND. NOT TALKING ABOUT
OVERLY HIGH VALUES OF INSTABILITY...AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS
GENERALLY ON THE LOWER SIDE...SO WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD BOUTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP SUNDAY A BIT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A BETTER CHANCE OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIP.
SATURDAY HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SUN/MON IN THE LOWER/MID
70S.

GETTING INTO THE MID WORK WEEK TIME FRAME...THE UNSETTLED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE STICKING AROUND. WHILE ONE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA...OTHERS TO THE W AND SW ARE
THERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. POPS ARE ON THE LOWER SIDE...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF THESE WAVES/PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WARMER...IN THE MID 70S TO POSSIBLY LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS AS LIGHT
RAINFALL AND LOWER CIGS OVERTAKE THE REGION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AS LIGHT RAIN OVERTAKES THE REGION
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL ONLY DETERIORATE
THEREAFTER..AS CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER LATE IN THE DAY WITH
LIGHT RAINFALL CHANGING OVER TO LIGHT DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE AN OUTSIDE
SHOT OF A THUNDERSTORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE...KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE 12Z TAFS FOR THE
TIME BEING. OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING...AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
EVENING...BETWEEN 12-15KTS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ROSSI


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