Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 242319
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
619 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF
THE CURRENT SYSTEM DEPARTING TO THE EAST. COULD SEE PATCHY FOG FOR
LOW-LYING AND/OR SHELTERED AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITH MOIST
SOILS DUE TO RECENT RAIN...ALTHOUGH THESE PATCHY VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 MILES...SO IT WOULD BE MAINLY AN AVIATION
CONCERN. STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGHING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY. INCREASING 800-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN KS AFTER
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING SATURDAY.
INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBO SUGGESTS STRONGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DIME SIZE HAIL.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SATURDAY-
SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING...LOCATION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE EJECTING NEGATIVELY-TILTED
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH THE
HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT. AS PREVIOUS FORECASTER
MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE IN A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/NIGHT REMAINS IN QUESTION FOR A FEW
REASONS: 1) HIGH PLAINS DRYLINE MAY NOT SHARPEN UNTIL WELL AFTER
DARK GIVEN BRUNT OF UPPER ENERGY STILL WELL OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS/OK
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. 2) LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN...THOUGH ADEQUATE...SHOULD REMAIN MODEST WITH LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S PER
MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS MODEST MOISTURE RETURN IN CONCERT WITH
SATURDAY HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90F SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGH CLOUD BASES...LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...ALL THAT
BEING SAID...IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS CAN INITIATE...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR MAGNITUDE/ORIENTATION WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WELL THROUGH
THE EVENING GENERALLY WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES WITH THE
HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND BETTER DRYLINE CONVERGENCE. BY LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY TEND
TO INCREASE...AS BETTER LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND DRYLINE ADVANCES EAST...ALTHOUGH HIGH-END SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WOULD PROBABLY BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAT LATE AT
NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR SUNDAY
GENERALLY EAST OF I-135...AS DRYLINE ADVANCES EAST AND NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODEST TO STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT AFTERNOON SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH STRONG FORCING POSSIBLY LIMITING TORNADO
THREAT...AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO REMAIN LESS DISCRETE
AND MORE LINEAR.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS MUCH/ALL OF NEXT
WEEK...AS AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY. COULD SEE PERIODIC CHANCES OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND COULD REMAIN IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
TO 40S.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY 02-03Z. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS IMPACTING KCNU WILL ALSO RAPIDLY DIMINISH
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20KT
GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT AT TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

MWM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SEVERAL ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER DAYS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE FIRST COUPLE WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE
TO WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND STRONG SOUTH
WINDS...WHEN THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO
MARGINALLY EXTREME FOR GRASSES AT LEAST 90 PERCENT CURED. SUNDAY
COULD BE THE MOST CRITICAL DAY GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE FLINT
HILLS...DUE TO WARM AND DRYING CONDITIONS AND STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS. DESPITE COOLER TEMPERATURES VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TUESDAY- THURSDAY FOR GRASSES AT LEAST 90
PERCENT CURED DUE TO STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  83  58  87 /   0   0  10  20
HUTCHINSON      44  84  56  87 /   0   0  10  20
NEWTON          44  82  57  86 /   0   0  10  20
ELDORADO        44  81  57  86 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   44  82  58  87 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         44  82  54  88 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      43  82  55  87 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          44  82  56  87 /   0   0  10  20
MCPHERSON       44  83  56  87 /   0   0  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     43  81  56  84 /  30   0  30  20
CHANUTE         43  80  55  84 /  50   0  30  20
IOLA            43  80  54  84 /  50   0  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    43  80  56  84 /  50   0  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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