Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231133
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
633 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

A shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley area early this
morning is progged to dig south-southeast into the Middle
Mississippi Valley area today.  The mid level cold pool will pivot
south across the Central Plains states with enough instability for
scattered afternoon showers and isolated non-severe storms.

Wed-Thu...a mid/upper ridge over the PACNW this morning is progged
to translate eastward across the Central Plains on Wed-Thu bringing
dry weather conditions and moderating temperatures. After another
day with below normal temperatures on Wed, highs on Thu will climb
into the upper 70s/around 80 for most locations. Maintained pops
across Central KS Thu evening as left exit region of H25 jet
approaches late in the period. We may see the cap weaken in the
vicinity of the dry line/cold front across Central KS and with
MLCAPE around 1900 J/KG and 0-6km bulk shear of 40-50 kt, there may
be a brief window for a severe storm or two across portions of
Central KS Thu evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Another round of strong and severe storms may arrive on
Friday across Southern KS within a moist easterly upslope flow
regime. A couple of additional shortwave troughs are progged to
impact the area friday night through at least Sunday bringing
additional chances for deep moist convection. Unsettled weather may
linger into early next week with near or below normal temperatures
prevailing through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

A few post-frontal showers will affect southeast Kansas this
morning. Otherwise, shallow instability under the deepening
upper trof across far eastern Kansas into Missouri today will
result in diurnally driven moderate cumulus and scattered
showers/isolated TSRA for the eastern half of Kansas this
afternoon. While VFR condition are expected to prevail thru the
forecast valid period, a brief period of MVFR VSBY/CIGS will be
possible, though probability and coverage was too low to mention
in the terminals and will amend as needed.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  46  68  49 /  20   0   0   0
Hutchinson      64  44  68  48 /  30   0   0   0
Newton          65  44  66  47 /  30   0   0   0
ElDorado        66  45  66  48 /  20  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   67  47  68  49 /  20   0   0   0
Russell         64  42  68  48 /  30  10   0   0
Great Bend      64  43  68  49 /  30  10   0   0
Salina          64  44  68  48 /  30  10   0   0
McPherson       65  43  67  47 /  30  10   0   0
Coffeyville     67  45  67  46 /  20  10  10   0
Chanute         67  47  66  46 /  30  10  10   0
Iola            66  47  65  46 /  30  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    67  47  66  46 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED


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