Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 162329
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ADVANCE
EASTWARD TONIGHT...DROPPING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG/GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THEN SWITCH TO
RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL PUSH EAST...EJECTING
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO INDUCE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS. QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES. LEE TROUGHING
AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FRIDAY...WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY RETURN WILL BE BETTER
FOR THIS WAVE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE WEAK. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER
ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
MONDAY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING
EXPECTED BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH/FRONT WITH A PACIFIC AIRMASS
BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. MAIN CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER
EASTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY...WITH SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT WEDNESDAY
DRAWING GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS. THERE ARE
SOME VARIANCES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION MID-LATE WEEK WITH
THE ECMWF MOVING THE TROUGH EASTWARD FASTER THAN THE GFS. THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR STRONG STORMS WEDNESDAY
PM/EVE...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN THURSDAY TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT AND INTO OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TO
THE REGION...MAINLY AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN KANSAS TERMINALS FROM
MID-MORNING THURSDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN...CLOUD BASES AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR...THOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN AREA AND DURATION
THEY WILL BE OMITTED FROM THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER (RED FLAG CRITERIA) WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 135...RESULTING FROM STRONG
SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 45 MPH. MINIMUM LATE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20-28% IS EXPECTED. FIRE DANGER SHOULD LESSEN
THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  55  38  70 /  50  60   0   0
HUTCHINSON      39  56  38  70 /  40  50   0   0
NEWTON          39  55  38  70 /  40  50   0   0
ELDORADO        41  55  38  70 /  40  60  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  56  39  71 /  50  70  10   0
RUSSELL         36  57  36  70 /  10  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      36  57  36  70 /  10  10   0   0
SALINA          37  56  37  71 /  10  20   0   0
MCPHERSON       38  56  37  70 /  20  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     42  58  42  71 /  20  60  20   0
CHANUTE         42  55  39  71 /  30  60  20   0
IOLA            41  54  39  70 /  30  60  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    42  57  40  70 /  20  60  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$







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