Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261706
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1106 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

IN THE UPPER LEVELS WE CURRENTLY HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED
OVER TX WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPS. STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES BY TUE MORNING. 850MB TEMPS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WILL BE IN THE 8-10 C RANGE AND IN
THE 10-18 C RANGE FOR TUE! THESE 850MB TEMPS ARE MORE TYPICAL OF
MID SPRING THAN LATE JANUARY. IF THESE 15-18 C 850MB TEMPS WOULD
MIX DOWN...TEMPS WOULD BE IN THE 80S. HOWEVER...IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE WE WILL MIX THAT FAR. NEVERTHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST A
FEW RECORDS WILL BE SHATTERED ON TUE WITH LOW TO MID 70S A GOOD
BET FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY WED. THE MAIN AFFECT
THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE WILL BE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WINDS GOING SW AND WEST JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW DOWNSLOPE AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO
CONTINUE FOR WED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

BY THU MORNING THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BRING CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S. BY FRI BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK SOME UPPER ENERGY
ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN CA. THEY BOTH HAVE THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY
FURTHER NORTHEAST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH LEADS TO
INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE BIG
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE ECMWF PHASES THE
SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WITH THE MEAN TROUGH WHILE THE GFS KEEPS
THE SOUTHERN ENERGY CUTOFF. SO AT THIS POINT THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST MON JAN 26 2015

SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND
IT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND TROUGH PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 KNOTS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE PATTERN
IN PLACE.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  35  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      71  34  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          67  33  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        68  34  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  34  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         73  33  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      72  35  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          69  34  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       69  33  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     65  33  68  42 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         65  33  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            64  32  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    65  33  66  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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