Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 051138
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
538 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY COLD START THIS MORNING BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM
AS THE STAR SHINES BRIGHTLY TODAY...HOWEVER THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER
AND SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE COLD AIRMASS WILL STILL KEEP DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL. HEADING INTO FRIDAY/SATURDAY THE STAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SHINE OVER KANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
NICELY...AS PREMIUM WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BOOST DAYTIME
HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE REGION...AS THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES. A SPLIT FLOW UPPER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE POLAR JET EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A ZONAL WEST-
EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP THE COLDER
AIR BOTTLED UP IN CANADA AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A RESULT.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND LIKELY BEYOND.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND WILL STRETCH FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTH TX BY THE EVENING HOURS.
MEANWHILE...WEAK TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD AND LIKELY BEYOND. WINDS WILL
COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST AND WILL REMAIN
ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH WIND SPEEDS REMAINING
MORE ON THE LIGHTER END OF THE SPECTRUM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    38  23  56  30 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      40  22  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          38  23  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        36  23  54  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  23  54  29 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         45  23  63  32 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      43  23  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          40  24  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       40  23  57  31 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     35  21  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         33  20  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            32  20  49  29 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    34  20  49  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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