Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 301726
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Near normal temperatures along with lighter wind speeds will prevail
across the region for today and Saturday, thus leading to 5-star
weather days for central and southern Kansas. Meanwhile models show
some weak isentropic lift occurring in the 305-310K layer for
late Saturday night into early Sunday morning over central Kansas.
This could give way to a few elevated showers/storms for this
period. Daytime highs will warm a bit more on Sunday as surface
high pressure shifts eastward which allows warmer air to spread
across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

Models are in good agreement with a deep pronounced upper level
trough axis ejecting from the Rockies for Monday night into
Wednesday across the central plains. Confidence is fairly high that
widespread showers and thunderstorms will affect Kansas for Tuesday
into Wednesday, as much richer Gulf of Mexico moisture streams
northward in advance of this system. Strong to severe thunderstorms
will be possible due to forecasted combination of stronger wind
speeds aloft and modest instability. Dry and cooler weather looks to
be in store for the region as a strong cold front pushes through by
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2016

VFR Weather is expected to persist during the TAF forecast valid
period. Light/variable winds are forecast with a surface ridge
continuing to stretch from Minnesota/Iowa to Eastern Kansas. Some
High-level cloudiness will continue to spread over central Kansas
from the west through Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  51  76  56 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      75  50  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          74  50  74  55 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        75  51  75  55 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   75  51  77  56 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         74  49  75  53 /   0   0  10  20
Great Bend      74  50  76  55 /   0   0  10  20
Salina          74  49  76  55 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       74  50  75  54 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     76  50  76  53 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         74  50  75  53 /   0   0   0  10
Iola            74  50  75  53 /   0   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    75  50  76  53 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...JMC


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