Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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777 FXUS65 KABQ 262344 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 544 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms with gusty winds today will increase in coverage across northern and western NM through Saturday. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow above 7,500 feet Saturday morning before rising above 8,500 feet Saturday afternoon. Southwest winds will also trend stronger Saturday with gusts up to 50 mph possible around Ruidoso and southwest Chaves County. More showers are expected over northern NM Sunday while the rest of the area sees breezy west to northwest winds, warmer temperatures, and lower humidity. Monday through Wednesday will trend even warmer with breezy west winds and sunny skies each day. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Today`s synoptic pattern features a well defined 552dm H5 closed low over NE and an open H5 trough over Las Vegas, NV with NM between these two features. Breezy westerly winds are reaching most areas and increasing cloud cover ahead of the open trough are infiltrating the Four Corners region. Numerical model guidance is resolving the open trough closing to a 551dm H5 low just before it reaches the Four Corners area, with showers of rain and high elevation snow spreading over the northwestern quadrant of NM. Snow levels will initially start near 8,000` before falling to 7,000` overnight into Saturday morning. A brief period of gusty winds and rain and high elevation snow will produce some short-lived hazardous travel conditions. The Pacific portion of the cold front advances to the Rio Grande Valley late Saturday morning to near noon. Areas from Socorro to ABQ to Santa Fe can expect a bout of gusty winds with chances for light rain and high elevation snow generally sticking along and north of I-40. Meanwhile, areas along and east of the central mountain chain will see southwesterly winds pick up again by late morning with gusts of 30 to 45 mph common. Stronger peak gusts reaching 50 to 55 mph will focus over the south-central mountains and portions of Chaves County where a Wind Advisory will be hoisted with this forecast package for Saturday afternoon and early evening. Could see southwest winds over performing the current forecast given a deep 994mb MLSP surface low along the CO/KS border and strong southwesterly flow aloft. However, saw potential mid-level cloud cover inhibiting mixing a tad. The Pacific portion of the cold front continues to the TX border by sunset Saturday with little to no precipitation potential through eastern NM. Winds begin to retreat from their peaks Saturday night, while the backdoor portion of the cold front skirts far northeastern NM. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The focus on Sunday shifts to a final trailing shortwave trough shifting southeast across northern NM. Sufficient moisture and lift beneath the wave along with daytime heating will allow showers and isolated storms to fire up along the CO border. Elsewhere, dry and breezy northwest flow will take hold with slightly warmer temps and partly cloudy skies. Min temps Sunday night will be chilly again but still above freezing in the lower elevations, except areas like Taos and Moriarty. Monday thru Wednesday will feature quasi-zonal flow with very dry westerly winds and warming temperatures. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will warm into the 80s across the lower/middle RGV with 80s and 90s over eastern NM (10F above normal for late April/early May). Overnight lows will also trend warmer with any sub-freezing temps relegated to higher mountain valleys by Wednesday and Thursday mornings. A potential pattern change is still on the horizon by Thursday with deeper moisture, cooler high temps, and more cloud cover behind a strong backdoor front entering eastern NM. This cold front will attempt to slosh west into the RGV Thursday night with gap winds Friday morning and an uptick in storm coverage possible thru the weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 An upper low over Great Basin will bring MVFR conditions to KFMN and KGUP tonight. MVFR conditions along with mountain obscurations will move into to the northwest plateau and northern mountains Saturday morning with the surface cold front reaching the mid Rio Grande Valley and KSAF during the late morning to early afternoon. Strongest winds are forecast Saturday afternoon for areas downwind of the central mountain chain, but strong gusts to 45 kt are possible from the stronger showers and thunderstorms just about areawide during the afternoon. VFR conditions are forecast to remain east of the central mountain chain with the exceptions of the possibility of blowing dust restricting visibility at the KROW terminal Saturday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 223 PM MDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN NM TODAY AS WELL AS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY... Red Flag Warning continues for the Middle Rio Grande Valley eastward and along and east of I-25 due to dry, warm, and unstable conditions. Current observations show gusty southwest winds most areas. These winds will subside some, below critical fire weather thresholds this evening, not entirely dying out however. An approaching storm system currently over Las Vegas, NV will bring cooler, gusty weather with embedded rain and high elevation snow to the northwestern half of the forecast area. Southwest winds will again strengthen ahead of this system through eastern NM, with enough time for humidity to once again fall to the low teens near the TX border. The Fire Weather Watch for the east-central plains Saturday afternoon was left as is, but could be expanded to the northeastern plains as this area is forecast to see at least elevated to short-lived critical conditions as well. Cooler temperatures fill in behind a cold front through the day Saturday, reaching the TX border Saturday evening. Temperatures rebound Sunday through Tuesday. Dry and breezy westerly winds will be the rule each of these days. These winds increase in strength Wednesday with cooler and wetter conditions favored to invade the eastern plains Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 40 56 38 65 / 80 70 5 5 Dulce........................... 30 51 31 60 / 80 80 20 40 Cuba............................ 33 50 33 59 / 70 90 30 20 Gallup.......................... 31 51 30 62 / 60 70 10 5 El Morro........................ 31 46 32 57 / 50 60 20 5 Grants.......................... 30 53 32 63 / 40 50 10 5 Quemado......................... 33 52 34 60 / 30 40 10 0 Magdalena....................... 37 56 38 64 / 5 30 10 0 Datil........................... 33 51 35 60 / 10 30 5 0 Reserve......................... 32 56 29 67 / 20 30 0 0 Glenwood........................ 43 60 40 72 / 20 30 0 0 Chama........................... 28 45 30 53 / 80 90 30 60 Los Alamos...................... 38 51 37 60 / 60 70 20 20 Pecos........................... 35 54 35 61 / 30 40 10 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 38 47 37 54 / 50 60 30 40 Red River....................... 28 44 28 51 / 50 70 40 70 Angel Fire...................... 25 46 26 52 / 40 60 30 50 Taos............................ 31 53 31 59 / 50 50 20 30 Mora............................ 32 54 34 60 / 20 30 20 30 Espanola........................ 40 58 39 66 / 50 50 20 20 Santa Fe........................ 38 54 37 61 / 40 50 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 38 57 36 65 / 40 40 10 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 43 60 43 67 / 20 40 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 43 62 41 69 / 20 30 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 43 64 40 72 / 10 30 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 44 62 42 70 / 20 30 5 0 Belen........................... 41 64 40 73 / 10 20 10 0 Bernalillo...................... 43 62 42 70 / 20 50 5 5 Bosque Farms.................... 41 63 40 72 / 10 30 5 0 Corrales........................ 43 62 43 71 / 20 40 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 42 63 41 72 / 10 30 5 0 Placitas........................ 42 58 41 66 / 30 50 10 5 Rio Rancho...................... 43 61 42 70 / 20 40 5 0 Socorro......................... 44 67 44 75 / 5 20 5 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 38 53 38 61 / 30 50 10 5 Tijeras......................... 39 56 38 64 / 30 50 10 5 Edgewood........................ 36 58 36 65 / 20 40 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 34 59 34 66 / 20 20 5 0 Clines Corners.................. 34 55 34 62 / 10 20 5 5 Mountainair..................... 36 57 36 64 / 10 20 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 37 58 35 65 / 5 20 10 0 Carrizozo....................... 46 63 41 69 / 0 10 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 55 38 62 / 0 10 0 0 Capulin......................... 36 58 32 60 / 0 30 10 40 Raton........................... 36 61 32 64 / 10 30 20 40 Springer........................ 37 63 35 67 / 0 20 5 20 Las Vegas....................... 37 58 35 64 / 5 10 5 10 Clayton......................... 45 70 40 67 / 0 10 5 10 Roy............................. 41 64 37 67 / 0 10 0 20 Conchas......................... 47 73 43 76 / 0 5 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 42 68 42 73 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 48 75 43 76 / 0 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 49 73 45 76 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 50 75 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 46 73 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 51 78 47 81 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 46 68 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 44 64 39 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-106- 123>126. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for NMZ126. Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ226-240. && $$ SHORT TERM...24 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...33