849
FXAK69 PAFG 101042
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
242 AM AKDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
No significant change to the forecast as shower chances continue for
the next several days. Winds through the AK Range passes will
increase from the south today with gusts up to 45 mph expected through
early tomorrow morning. Winds along the NW Arctic Coast will be
weakening today as a low near Utqiagvik drifts north and weakens.
The West Coast will be experiencing slightly modified temperatures
this weekend with the Interior and North Slope remain nearly
stationary. A Flood Watch continues for an ice jam 12 miles
upstream from Circle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Level Analysis...
The 00z model suite initialized fairly well aloft. Currently, a
529 decameter low is sitting between Point Lay and Wainwright.
To the east-northeast there is a 546 decameter high which extends
south through Canada and into the Pacific Northwest. A 519
decameter low is centered over Unalaska with a string of energy
extending north into SW AK, and east into the Gulf of Alaska
towards Yakutat. There is also shortwave energy over the Yukon
which is moving from south to north while much weaker energy sits
over the Interior. The string of energy over the Gulf of Alaska
will surge northward today providing gusty southerly gap flow.

Surface Analysis...
A 984 mb low over Unalaska will weaken and move east to the AK
Peninsula Saturday evening. A 1003 mb low is moving east over the
Yukon out of our area. A 1008 mb low over Wainwright will drift
north today and out of the area by Sunday afternoon. Otherwise,
isolated to scattered showers will continue in the Interior today
with isolated rain and snow showers along the West Coast and North
Slope. This trend of isolated showers continues for Sunday and
Monday as well.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Rain and snow showers today will be around today, mostly from St.
Lawrence Island northeast, while most of the area from Unalakleet
southward remains dry. On Saturday, isolated rain and snow
showers continue at times, but far less in the way of coverage
area. Temperatures will moderate slightly this weekend with highs
head back into the mid to upper 30s for highs along the coast from
Nome south, and near 50 inland. Temperatures from Wales northward
will remain quite chilly with highs in the 20s and low 30s.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain showers will be around the Interior once again with a slight
chance for thunderstorms around Arctic Village this afternoon.
The Interior dries out a bit on Saturday with the greatest
likelihood for showers being over the Brooks Range. On Sunday, it
becomes a bit more active in the Interior with scattered showers
around Fairbanks and numerous rain showers and periods of rain in
the Eastern Interior. It is a bit uncertain right now, but there
may be a slight chance for thunder within these showers as well.
Temperatures will remain nearly stationary with highs in the 50s
to near 60 this weekend.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Areas of light snow continue southwest of Wainwright to the
Western Brooks Range. The snow will end tonight into tomorrow
morning outside of a few lingering flurries. Otherwise, mostly
quiet weather persists. Isolated rain and snow showers will
develop over the Eastern Brooks Range this afternoon and evening.
A few of them may drift north to the coast, but they will be
spotty, so most locations remain dry. The greatest likelihood for
rain or snow showers will be from Deadhorse west tomorrow morning
through midday as a weak wave of energy moves through from south
to north. Then tomorrow evening, another round of showers develops
in the Eastern Brooks Range and these have the potential to lift
north early Sunday morning as a front pushes through. Otherwise,
the chances for isolated showers continues into the beginning of
next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High temperatures in the 50s to near 60 through this weekend.
The thunderstorm threat will shift north for Friday with areas
around Arctic Village seeing the greatest potential for storms,
around 5 to 10 percent. Isolated to scattered showers will remain
throughout the weekend as more disturbances move through the area.
Southerly gap winds of 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph are
forecast Friday night and Saturday morning from Isabel Pass to
Delta Junction. Near- critical fire weather conditions are
possible with Minimum RH values of 20 to 30%.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Watch remains in effect through this afternoon, but may be
pushed out longer depending on what the Riverwatch team observes
today. As of yesterday evening, a persistent ice jam remains 12
miles upstream from Circle. Water levels have been holding steady
both below and above the ice jam. This has led to some minor
overbank flooding on the south side of the river, near the upper
end of the jam, approximately 20 miles upstream from Circle. The
flood risk at Circle has been gradually decreasing as the ice
slowly clears out of the braided channels. The ice on the Yukon
River between Circle and Fort Yukon continues to break up slowly.
Many minor jams were observed between Circle and Fort Yukon. Water
is high, covering gravel bars and into the willows, but no
overbank flooding has been observed. The gradual breakup trend is
expected to continue with the ice at Fort Yukon slowly breaking up
over the next few days.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ833.
PK...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ806.
&&

$$

Bianco