377
FXUS61 KAKQ 292031
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
431 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift farther off the Southeast coast and out
to sea tonight through Wednesday. Well above normal temperatures
are expected through much of the week. A weak cold front will
cross the area late Tuesday night through Wednesday with scattered
showers and storms possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening.
Precipitation chances increase this weekend, as another cold
front approaches the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

Late this aftn, sfc high pressure was centered off the SE coast.
Very warm under a sunny or mostly sunny sky, with temps ranging
through the 80s. The high will start to shift a little farther
off the SE coast tonight, as a weak cold front pushes through
the OH/TN valleys. Clear or mostly clear and mild tonight with
lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

The sfc high will shift farther off the SE coast and out to sea
tonight through Wed. Still very warm on Tue, with a mostly sunny
sky becoming partly sunny, as a weak cold front starts to
approach from the WNW. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid
80s. That front will then gradually push into and across the
region Tue evening through Wed evening. There may be isolated
showers or a tstm Tue evening into Wed morning. But then, the
best chance for showers/tstms (30-54%) will be from late Wed
morning into Wed evening, as the boundary slowly sinks SE
through the area. Lows Tue night in the lower to mid 60s, with
highs on Wed in the mid 70s to lower 80s. The highest PoPs will
be across srn/SE counties where around ~0.25" of rain will be
possible. The rain will end Wed night with dry weather expected
for late Wed night through Thu, as the front pushes SSE of the
area and upper ridge of high pressure builds into/over the
region. Lows will range through the 50s Wed night, with highs on
Thu ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s near the Bay/coast, to
the upper 70s to lower 80s inland/Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 415 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure ridge aloft will maintain dry weather Thu night
through Fri. At the sfc, high pressure will be centered over New
England or just offshore, resulting in onshore flow everywhere.
This will keep temps cooler along the coast and warmer inland.
Highs on Fri in the lower to mid 80s inland/Piedmont, and in the
mid 70s near the Bay/coast (coolest along the Atlc beaches of
the Eastern Shore). There may be an isolated shower or tstm Fri
evening/night over WNW counties, as a cold front starts to
approach from the WNW.

A cold front will gradually push into and across the region Sat
into Mon, providing decent chances for showers/tstms. Due to
plenty of cloud cover expected, highs will range through the 70s
into the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from this aftn into
Tue aftn, with just a few CU or SCT-BKN CI expected. SW winds
5-15 kt with gusts to around 20 kt will occur through the period.

Outlook: Mainly VFR conditions are expected at all terminals
into Tue night. But, there is a slight chance of a shower/tstm
at RIC/SBY Tue evening. Higher chances (30-50%) of showers or
tstms will be possible Wed into Wed evening, with brief flight
restrictions likely in any tstms. Dry Thu-Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the
forecast period though some gusts to around 20 kt are possible
at times.

High pressure remains centered off of the Carolinas with an
area of low pressure west of the Great Lakes. This is placing
the region under a persistent southwest flow around 10 to 15
knots. Seas persist around 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet offshore),
and waves in the bay are running around 1 foot (up to 2 feet at
the mouth). Southwesterly flow continues overnight and decreases
with the loss of mixing. For Tue southwest winds should
increase a little after daybreak with mixing resulting to 10 to
15 kt with a few higher gusts possible over the Bay and near
shore waters closer to land.

A cold front approaches the waters from the north and northwest
late Tuesday night pushing south past Ocean City and the
Potomac River in the morning reaching the lower Bay and NC
waters later in the afternoon. S to SW winds will increase
slightly ahead of the front (~15 knots over the bay and ~15 to
20 knots over the coastal waters) Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Seas increase some due to the stronger S winds, with
seas approaching 4 to 5 feet out 20 nm, especially north of Cape
Charles Light. Winds shift to the N and NE behind the front
Wednesday morning and remain around 10 to 15 kt. Generally
onshore flow from the NE then E is expected from late Wednesday
into Friday. Have increased the NE winds a little with this
forecast updated based on the models, but winds remain below
SCA criteria around 15 kt with some gusts to near 20 kt
possible at times. Another front potentially approaches the
waters later this weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for April 29th and April 30th:

         4/29 4/30
RIC    94/1974  93/1974
ORF    92/1974  93/1988
SBY    89/1974  86/2017
ECG    90/1974  90/1974

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...RMM/TMG
LONG TERM...RMM/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AJB/JAO
CLIMATE...AKQ