Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
000
FNUS71 KAKQ 150821
FWSAKQ
Spot Forecast for Piney Grove Preserve...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
421 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.
.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures quickly warm after sunrise this morning. Dry conditions
are expected through at least the early afternoon with minimum
relative humidities falling to 30-35%. Southwest winds will average
around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms is then expected later this afternoon and evening, with
the best chance after 4 PM. Not as dry Tuesday afternoon with an
isolated shower or two possible.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 17 mph shifting to the southwest
around 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (106200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................15 early in the morning increasing to 120 in
the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5 4 3 7 11 16 23 39 39
Weather cov..... SCH SCH CHC CHC
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........ SCH SCH CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 20 20 40 40
Temp............70 75 79 82 84 85 86 86 84
RH..............49 43 39 35 34 33 32 32 36
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8
20 FT wind gust.11 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.3 2.3 3.2 4.3 5.4 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2
Transp wind dir.SW W W W W SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.8 10 13 13 12 12 15 17 20
LVORI...........2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............15 31 50 63 71 82 102 120 120
Haines index....5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10 22 35 46 54 65 81 98 106
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR FR FR GD GD GD VGD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening,
then showers and thunderstorms likely early in
the evening. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the late evening and
overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening
becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening and
overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 17 mph decreasing to 3 to 7 mph
late in the evening, then shifting to the
northwest 2 to 5 mph overnight shifting to the
north 8 to 12 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (64300 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (800 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................88 early in the evening decreasing to 1 late in
the night.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........52 52 57 57 52 50 44 38 32 35 38 40
Weather cov.....CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).50 50 60 60 50 50 30 30 10 10 10 0
Temp............83 79 75 72 69 67 66 65 63 62 61 61
RH..............38 45 52 59 66 73 75 78 84 87 90 87
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W NW N N
20 FT wind spd..7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3
20 FT wind gust.12 11 8 6 5 3 3 2 2 3 3 5
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 2.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW W W NW NW N N
Transp wind spd.17 13 9 7 7 6 3 2 2 5 8 12
LVORI...........1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 5
ADI.............88 9 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 5
Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..64 27 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 4
Ventrate Cat....GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
showers late in the afternoon. Slight chance of
thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 7 mph in the
late morning and afternoon. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 21 mph shifting to the east 9
to 10 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (32600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 to 47.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........39 36 41 46 52 57
Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 20 20
Temp............60 60 67 73 75 77
RH..............87 84 61 46 41 36
20 ft wind......N 3 NE 4 NE 6 E 7 E 7 E 7
20 ft wind gust.5 6 11 12 12 12
Mix hgt (ft)....600 1000 2100 2900 3600 3200
Transport wind..NE 15 NE 21 NE 17 E 13 E 10 E 9
LVORI...........5 4 1 1 1 1
ADI.............7 26 45 46 45 36
Haines index....2 2 2 2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 18 31 32 32 25
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...WRAY
Requested by...Bobby Clontz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410808.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bclontz@tnc.org