251
FXUS64 KAMA 020452 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1152 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

For the rest of this afternoon and tonight, refer to the above mesoscale
update discussion for detailed information. Pops in the grids for tonight
reflect the reasoning outlined in the mesoscale discussion.

Semi-zonal to west southwest upper level flow is expected for Thursday
and Thursday night. A very minor shortwave trof embedded in this flow
is progged to zip eastward across the region during this time period,
and could bring a few showers and thunderstorms to parts of the eastern
OK and eastern TX Panhandles Thursday afternoon and night. NBM slight
chance pops look reasonable and were accepted.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 410 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

For Friday through Sunday afternoon, a few minor upper level shortwave
trofs embedded in the overall mean flow are forecast to move across
the region and will bring a threat for showers and thunderstorms
during this time frame. Based on the predicted track of these
minor features, the southern Texas Panhandle may have the best
chance of receiving precipitation, while the far northwestern
zones may have the lowest chance. NBM pops reflect the above
scenario and were utilized in the appropriate grids for Friday
through Sunday.

A much stronger upper level low pressure system is then slated to move
across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains Monday
into Tuesday. This suggested path offered by medium range models
would prove to be more of a dry, windy, and warm scenario for our
forecast area. Medium range models and associated ensemble members
are in reasonable agreement with that idea and were accepted. That
said, warmer temperatures along with breezy to windy conditions and
dry weather are in the offing for Monday and Tuesday.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A cold front will push south across the TAF sites this morning.
North winds in the 20 to 25 knot range with higher gusts will be
expected. Winds will slowly decrease by late this afternoon to 10
to 15 knots and they will turn more northeast and east.

MVFR cigs are expected at AMA before the front and right after the
front. MVFR cigs may be possible at GUY behind the front, but
confidence is not high enough to add those cigs in a this point.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                92  53  76  51 /  10  20   0  10
Beaver OK                  90  51  75  46 /  20  30  10  10
Boise City OK              87  46  72  44 /   0  10  10  10
Borger TX                  97  55  80  51 /  10  20  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              94  52  78  50 /   0  10   0  10
Canyon TX                  92  52  77  51 /  10  20   0  10
Clarendon TX               91  56  77  53 /  30  50  10  20
Dalhart TX                 90  46  74  44 /   0  10  10  10
Guymon OK                  88  48  74  45 /  10  10  10  10
Hereford TX                92  51  78  51 /  10  10   0  10
Lipscomb TX                90  55  76  50 /  30  30  20  20
Pampa TX                   91  53  76  51 /  20  20  10  20
Shamrock TX                89  57  76  53 /  40  60  20  20
Wellington TX              88  58  79  54 /  40  70  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...15