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000
FXUS64 KAMA 151023
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
523 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

For today and tonight, a vigorous upper level low pressure system
initially progged to be centered around the vicinity of southern
Utah and northern Arizona at 12Z this morning is forecast to move
to around northwestern or north central Kansas by 12Z Tuesday. A
surface dryline is expected to be located across the far eastern
zones this afternoon, then retreat westward some this evening
before being overtaken by a Pacific cold front later tonight.
Despite some moisture return east of where the dryline sets up,
the quality and depth of this moisture return does not appear to
look as good as was progged several days ago. Also, high uncertainty
exists regarding whether or not thunderstorms will form east of
the dryline due to a significant elevated mixed layer in place
across the area. High level cloud cover seen on satellite imagery
may inhibit maximum daytime heating needed to break any mid level
capping inversion. That said, NBM pops for this afternoon are
restricted to only the very far southeast TX Panhandle and appear
plausible based on concerns outlined above. Low pops offered by
the NBM for tonight across only the far eastern zones also look
reasonable based on the expected location of the Pacific cold
front overtaking the retreating dryline. If any storms manage to
develop, they will have the potential to become severe given
favorable wind shear with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps
an isolated tornado possible before these storms move into
Oklahoma.

The upper level storm system is expected to move north and east
of the region towards eastern Nebraska by late Tuesday afternoon.
However, the pressure gradient will remain tight such that breezy
to windy conditions will develop across the area on Tuesday. It
appears the overall strongest winds will likely occur across the
Oklahoma Panhandle. A Wind Advisory may eventually need to be
considered for at least the Oklahoma Panhandle on Tuesday if these
progged winds are to materialize. Winds will rapidly diminish
early Tuesday evening as the gradient relaxes.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

A cold front is forecast to move across the region late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning with cooler temperatures anticipated
Thursday into the weekend. Another upper level shortwave trof may
impact the area Friday night through Saturday night and may bring
the next chance for precipitation. Specific details concerning
this next storm system remain problematic this far out in time.
Nevertheless, medium range deterministic models and associated
ensembles are in general agreement and were accepted. Dry weather
returns for Sunday as the upper level shortwave trof heads east of
the area.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

For the 06Z TAFs, southwest winds will increase and become gusty
at the terminal sites later today before diminishing late Monday
evening. Patchy blowing dust is also expected along with periods
of high level clouds.

02

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Critical fire weather conditions will develop late this morning
through this evening across the Oklahoma Panhandle as well as most
of the northern and western sections of the Texas Panhandle due
to strong twenty foot southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher
gusts along with minimum relative humidity values of 5 to 9 percent.
Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop across
the remainder of the Texas Panhandle except the southeast section
from late this morning through this evening. Elevated to critical
fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday across the Oklahoma
Panhandle as well as northern and western sections of the Texas
Panhandle due to strong northwest winds and low relative humidity
values.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                85  50  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  89  49  80  44 /   0  20   0   0
Boise City OK              81  44  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  90  53  84  47 /   0  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              86  49  84  45 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  85  49  81  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               84  52  83  49 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 82  43  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  87  46  78  42 /   0  10   0   0
Hereford TX                85  48  82  43 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                87  53  82  47 /   0  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   86  51  82  47 /   0  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                83  53  84  49 /  10  20   0   0
Wellington TX              83  52  84  49 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM CDT this
     evening for TXZ001>004-006>008-011-016.

OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM CDT this
     evening for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...02