Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KAPX 191451
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1051 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN FREE AND STEADILY WARMING
CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS THIS WEEKEND AND ACTUALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1051 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES NEEDED...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SITTING
BETWEEN A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND A COUPLE OF
VORTICITY CENTERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WHICH IS BRINGING
CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHWEST ONTARIO BUT EARLY CLOUD COVER
OVER NORTHEAST LOWER HAS THINNED. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CU POP OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT EVEN THAT WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE MIX INTO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 750MB.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S EXPECTED WITH LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...BEAUTIFUL YET AGAIN...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

WATER VAPOR/IR IMAGERY SHOWING WEAK SFC LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING UP THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH SOME DEFORMATION
CLOUDS IN SE LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WAS AROUND OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS...BUT ANY PRECIPITATION WAS WELL SOUTH...POSSIBLY
IMPINGING UPON THE DETROIT AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS ALSO EMERGED FROM CENTRAL CANADA...AND WAS DRIVING A COLD
FRONT AND LINE OF SHOWERS SOME STORMS INTO MN/SD. TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MAINLY 50S.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OPENS/BROADENS UP WITH TIME AS IT TRACKS INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW GETS WASHED
OUT INTO THE MORE DOMINANT FEATURE...THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. NRN MICHIGAN REMAINS GROUND ZERO
CONCERNING DRY AIR...BEING WITHIN AN AXIS OF LOWEST LOW TO MID LEVEL
THETA-E AIR ALL THE WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN NO
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE SHORTWAVE THAT EMERGED FROM CENTRAL
CANADA...WILL LIFT MORE ENE TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND WILL NOT OFFER
UP MUCH PUSH FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MAKE IT NEAR OUR AREA. DO NOT SEE
ANY CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON CUMULUS (BURIED WITHIN COLLIDING LAKE
BREEZES ACROSS INTERIOR REGIONS OF EASTERN UPPER AND NRN LOWER) TO
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. DRYNESS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
STRONG CAP AT 650MB OUGHT TO SQUASH ANY EFFORT IN THAT AREA.
THUS...ANOTHER REAL NICE SUMMER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

...HEAT AND HUMIDITY ON THE WAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: VERY WARM AND MORE HUMID MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A PAIR OF WEAKENING AND MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONTS WILL TEND TO
WASH OUT AS THEY APPROACH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL ONLY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EASTERN UPPER. OTHERWISE...CONTINUED
WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH SLOWLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CREST AT ABOUT 590 DM
TUESDAY LEADING TO VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. A SHORT WAVE THEN
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO END
THE WORK WEEK AS ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...THE 80S TO AROUND 90 MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S THURSDAY THEN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TO START THE PERIOD...COOLING INTO MAINLY THE
50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE UPPER 40S AND 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

SUMMARY: QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND REMAINS CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING TAF
PERIOD.  ONLY POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN BE FOR FOG
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.  OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS
QUITE SIMILAR TO RIGHT NOW...WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE CROSSOVER VALUES THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
LOOKING OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER WHERE TOMORROW MORNING/S AIRMASS IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED...SEE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FOG.  SO...WHILE
SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE...DO NOT BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL
RISES TO THE POINT TO INCLUDE IN THIS TAF PACKAGE AS IT SHOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED AND NOT DENSE.

AS FOR CLOUDINESS...THERE ARE A FEW RAGGED CUMULUS AS WELL AS SOME
HIGH CLOUDS IMPACTING THE REGION THIS MORNING.  THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
THIN DURING THE DAY...WITH THE 5-6KFT CUMULUS EXPANDING SOMEWHAT TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE DURING THE DAY.  THESE CLOUDS WILL THIN THIS
EVENING...WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS...AND A FEW MID CLOUDS /WEST/ FOR
THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

WINDS: CALM WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY /LESS THAN 5KTS/ THIS
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LOCAL LAKE BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO CALM/LIGHT SOUTHERLY /LESS THAN 5KTS/
TONIGHT.

LLWS: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.

THUNDER: NO THREAT THIS CYCLE.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THOUGHTS...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
SYNOPTIC GRADIENT OVER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF COLD
FRONTS WILL TRY...BUT FAIL...TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER LAKES.

LAKE BREEZE WIND COMPONENTS COMMON TODAY. LARGELY SIMILAR STORY
FOR SUNDAY THOUGH GRADIENT MAY BE A BIT STRONGER ON LAKE MICHIGAN/
WHITEFISH BAY...BUT NEARSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY STILL TURN TOWARD
THE SHORELINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS NOT
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. GRADIENT TIGHTENS A TOUCH MORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT ADVISORY LEVEL CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL...ONLY
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN DUE TO COASTAL
CONVERGENCE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...ARNOTT
MARINE...SMD






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.