Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 060001
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
701 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...WSW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT LATE
TONIGHT. AGAIN.

A SURFACE TROF IS WORKING ACROSS LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
RIDGE AXIS BACK IN CENTRAL WI AND WESTERN UPPER MI. THE TROF EXITS
TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...WHILE THE RIDGE MOVES IN AND FLATTENS
OUT. A CLIPPER SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN NORTH OF SUPERIOR TONIGHT...
SUPPORTED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE PRESENTLY IN NW MN AND A CLOSED 500MB
LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW/WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ACT TO INCREASE POP CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT.

ONGOING LAKE EFFECT IS TENDING TO DIMINISH FROM THE N AND W...AS THE
RIDGE APPROACHES AND DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK IN FROM THE NW. THIS
DIMINISHING TREND SHOULD HOLD THRU THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS 1000-850MB WINDS BACK TO THE W AND WSW. MOST OF WHAT/S
THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT SHOULD FIT UNDER THE /FLURRY/
HEADING...BUT WILL PROBABLY NEED AT LEAST A SCT POP EARLY ON IN SOME
AREAS.

LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z)...A LAYER OF DRY
AIR AT 850MB WILL FINALLY BE ERODED BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALOFT.
DELTA T/S WILL STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS. THIS WILL ALLOW LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW TO BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE IN WSW FLOW AREAS (CENTERED
ON THE STRAITS REGION). COULD SEE A QUICK INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK
(NOT ENOUGH TIME FOR MUCH MORE). WILL ALSO MENTION BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MI WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OVERNIGHT.

WILL BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO TANK THIS EVENING IN INTERIOR SECTIONS
BEFORE HIGHER CLOUDS THICKEN OVERNIGHT.../IF/ THE LOW CLOUDS CAN
THIN OUT JUST A SMIDGE. HAVE LOWERED GUIDANCE TEMPS A BIT...WITH
LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGE: MARGINAL 850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR LAKE
ENHANCEMENT INSTABILITY.

(2/6)SATURDAY...THE MORNING STARTS OUT WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
AROUND OR LESS THAN -10C AND THE WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND +3C. THIS
GIVE US ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO HELP WITH THE CLIPPER MOVING BY THE
REGION TO THE NORTH TO ENHANCE OUR SNOW. HOWEVER, WITH THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE DAY, WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY, AND
THUS, OUR AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT OR EVEN MINOR THROUGH THE DAY. BY
00Z THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND -5C IN N LAKE MICHIGAN WITH
THE SW WIND SO WILL EXPECT THAT THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH WITH THE ONLY
THREAT FROM SNOW BEING THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE BOUNDARY WATERS AREA BY 12Z.
THIS SHOULD PUSH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND
THE TIP OF THE MITT OVERNIGHT AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 500 MB
FORCING MOVE INTO THE AREA.

(2/7)SUNDAY...THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE 24 HOURS.INITIALLY, THE
SNOW WILL BE CONFINED NORTH ALONG THE WARM FRONT AS THE SYSTEM IS
STILL IN THE BOUNDARY WATERS REGION THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON, IT IS IN THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH FORCING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 500 MB LOW. 850
MB TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE WARM, NEAR -3C OR SO THERE WILL BE
NEARLY ZERO ENHANCEMENT. ALSO, THE 850-700 MB LAYER DRY SLOT
LOOKS TO DAMPER THE SNOW PRODUCTION AS WELL WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT THE SNOW
WILL FILL BACK IN AS THE LOW CUTS OFF FOR A TIME AND BEGINS TO
FILL.

(2/8)MONDAY...THE MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEM FILLING AND STACKING
THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH WILL PROMOTE MORE LIGHT SNOW WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS BEGINNING TO INSIST THAT THE 850
MB TEMPERATURES MAY FALL TO AROUND -10C BY 00Z, THUS HELPING TO
ENHANCE SOME OF THE SNOW FROM THE LAKES. HOWEVER, THE NAM AND ECMWF
ARE STILL AROUND -6C OR -7C OVER THE LAKES SO WILL EXPECT THAT THE
SNOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT FOR
SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT (IF 850 MB TEMPERATURES GET TO AROUND -10C) BY
THE END OF THE DAY IN NW LOWER ALONG THE NNW FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SETTLING INTO A POSITIVE PNA SETUP THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A SLOW MOVING CLIPPER USHERS IN COLD AIR
AND DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CHANCES FOR SNOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD...A COMBINATION OF THE INITIAL
CLIPPER...LAKE EFFECT BEHIND IT AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE
LAKES...AND POSSIBLY SOME SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH.
ALTHOUGH SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT ARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN...I HAVE
RAISED THE POPS FOR N/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL GIVE
US ANOTHER SPELL OF HIGHS IN THE TEENS FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DEPARTED EAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME MINOR
LOW LEVEL WARMING AND DRYING THAT HAS ALLOWED THE MVFR CIGS TO
JUST ABOUT DISAPPEAR. STILL HAVE SOME LINGERING MVFR SCRAPING
TVC/MBL...AND CONFIDENCE IS OW ON HOW THAT EVOLVES...AS CONDITIONS
FOR LAKE EFFECT TAKE A HIT INTO THE EVENING...SO MVFR EXPECTED TO
TURN VFR. CLIPPER ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REGENERATE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT/MVFR INTO NW LOWER. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...WITH LLWS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ALL AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT...AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
PASSES NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE BEING
POSTED FOR LAKE MI AND PART OF LAKE HURON. THESE WILL LAST THRU
MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY...AND PARTS OF LAKE MI MAY NEED HEADLINES
FOR LONGER.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LHZ346.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY FOR LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...MAYHEW
AVIATION...DICKSON
MARINE...JZ


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