Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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782
FXUS63 KAPX 201939
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
339 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

...Lingering showers through tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Mid level short wave advancing into
northern Michigan this afternoon with attending surface low over
south-central Lake Michigan. Warm front stretches across SE lower
Michigan and trailing cold front down through Illinois. Active
batch of showers/storms is rolling through southern lower Michigan
within and near the warm sector and ahead of the front. Up
north...after our morning showers/storms...shower coverage has
been diminishing through the afternoon (replaced by drizzle) as
strongest synoptic forcing departs to the N/E and pronounced lower
level dry slot begins to press into the region from the west.
Deformation axis/lingering precip remains across Lake Superior and
parts of the U.P.

Tonight: Will have to keep a close eye on downstate convection
which, for the time being, appears like it will miss us. There is
still a thin sliver of weak instability down toward Saginaw Bay.
But our thunder threat appears over at this juncture. Otherwise...
dry slot will continue to overspread lower Michigan this evening
leaving behind a fairly deep surface based saturated layer and
areas of drizzle for a time for most of northern lower Michigan
before diminishing overnight. Further north...deformation axis
and light precip will slide through the U.P./tip of the mitt and
bring lower end rain chances through much of the night. Mainly
rain...although precip may get a bit mixy toward Friday morning.

Much improvement anticipated on Friday especially during the
afternoon as high pressure/dry air builds across the region.
But...still on the cool side as pocket of cold air slides through
the northern lakes which will keep temps largely in the 40s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

...Pleasant start to the weekend expected...

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern Forecast: Closed mid-level circulation that`s plagued
northern Michigan for the past 12 hours or so is progged to be
centered across southern Quebec by Friday evening with troughing
extending westward across Michigan. This will quickly progress
eastward as mid-level ridging and associated surface high pressure
take over, at least briefly, Friday night through the day Saturday.
Weak mid-upper level bagginess along with a subtle shortwave return
Sunday as a cold front tied to low pressure near James Bay extends
toward the northern Great Lakes...increasing cloudiness and perhaps
scattered shower chances, especially across the northern half of the
area.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Little in the way of concern throughout
the period with increased cloudiness and perhaps a few showers on
Sunday, especially across the northern half of the CWA, providing
the greatest challenge.

Clearing skies Friday evening into the overnight will be the rule as
ridging and associated surface high pressure begin to nose in from
the west, ultimately providing a surge of much drier air throughout
the entire column. Temperatures moderate from below normal readings
Friday to near-normal on Saturday. Highs in the mid-50s to near 60
area-wide (slightly cooler for eastern Upper and near the
lakeshores) combined with mostly sunny skies and light winds should
provide for a pleasant spring day across all of northern Michigan.

Cloudiness begins to increase a bit late Saturday night into early
Sunday as the aforementioned cold front tied to low pressure near
James Bay begin to wash out as it approaches the region from the
northwest. Limited moisture ahead of and along the front should
limit the increase in cloud cover and attendant light/scattered
shower chances to the northern third to half of the area. In fact,
many locations along and south of the bridge will likely stay partly
to mostly sunny with temperatures warming again into the low 50s to
low 60s. Overall, shaping up to be a pretty nice weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

The extended period will continue with high pressure dominating the
forecast area, providing mostly clear skies, light winds, seasonable
temperatures and precipitation-free weather through Monday
evening/night. The pattern becomes more progress Monday night with
several weak systems returning chances of precipitation to the Great
Lakes region through the remainder of the period. Daytime
temperatures will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s, while lows will
be in near 30 to start off the period and warm to the low 40s by
Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Scattered rain showers across the region this afternoon will
diminish tonight. But solid IFR cloud cover will remain in place
through tonight before gradually lifting/improving on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Gusty east winds continue into the evening with some gusts to
around gale force through the straits and northern lakes Huron and
Michigan. Winds will diminish quickly this evening and low
pressure tracks through lower Michigan. But north/northwesterly
winds increase again on Friday and persists through Friday night.
Small craft advisories will need to be extended through Friday
night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Friday for LHZ349.
     GALE WARNING until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ345>348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-344>346.
     GALE WARNING until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ341-342.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Friday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...TBA
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...TBA
MARINE...TBA



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