Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260140
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
940 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

1000MB SURFACE LOW IS PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY LATE THIS
EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THIS MATURE SYSTEM HAS
A PROMINENT MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...ILLUSTRATED BY IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND BY THE 00Z APX SOUNDING...WHICH WAS SATURATED THRU
800MB BUT QUITE DRY ABOVE. MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DIGGING INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR BASIN WAS KEEPING UPPER MI ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF DEEPER MOISTURE. THUS...WE ARE SEEING
PERIODS OF LIGHT SYNOPTIC PRECIP (SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX) IN
UPPER MI AND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. SAULT ONTARIO HAS BEEN
REPORTING A RA/SN MIX FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. IN NORTHERN
LOWER...PATCHY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL ECHOES ARE RESULTING IN A FEW
FLURRIES AND/OR DRIZZLE.

THE ABOVE SCENARIO REMAINS LARGELY STEADY-STATE THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMP ADVECTION IS BASICALLY NEUTRAL OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS
OR SO...BEFORE SOMEWHAT COLDER AIR FINALLY BLEEDS IN DURING THE
LATE OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL KEEP -SN OR A -SN/-RA MIX GOING IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN CHIPPEWA CO...BEFORE GOING OVER TO ALL -SN VERY
LATE. QPF MIGHT REACH AS HIGH AS 0.1-0.2 INCHES BY WHITEFISH
PT...BUT THE SLOPPY NATURE OF THE PRECIP WILL KEEP ACCUMS AT AN
INCH OR LESS.

FOR NORTHERN LOWER...A FEW FLURRIES/SPOTS OF DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
THRU THE NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. SURFACE TEMPS WILL
HOVER ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL QUITE LATE...SO NO MAJOR FZDZ CONCERNS.

PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ABOVE THE BRIDGE...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORT WAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY`S
MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...LEADING VORTICITY LOBE IS PULLING MAIN PRECIP BAND AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA...STILL ANOTHER LITTLE BALL OF ENERGY PUSHING MORE
SNOW THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND INTO WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN.  MIDDAY SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS SEPARATE PIECES OF SHORT
WAVE ENERGY...LEAD WAVE HAS A WEAK OCCLUDED LOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR NEAR MQT...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM THE OCCLUDED LOW NORTHWEST TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO.  STRONG ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT ACROSS MICHIGAN/ONTARIO...WITH
A +3MB/3HR RISE OVER SOUTHWEST LOWER/INDIANA AND A -5MB/3HR FALL
FROM GEORGIAN BAY NORTHEAST.  SOME COLDER AIR IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS
SPREADING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES ALONG
WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON

SURFACE LOWS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE FEATURE WITHIN BROAD
AREA OF STRONGER PRESSURE FALLS NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT.
THIS LEAVES BEHIND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIPPING INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: WINDS...CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.

TONIGHT...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS CERTAINLY SUPPORT A CLOUDY NIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL EAST INTO EASTERN
UPPER THIS EVENING...MOST LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW (PROBABLY ONLY
AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION).  MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT A BIT LATER
THIS EVENING...BUT ARRIVAL OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE COLD FRONTAL ZONE MAY BRING ABOUT SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
OR POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT.  WILL JUST FOCUS
ON THE SNOW CHANCES FOR NOW...AND OPT TO NOT MENTION FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO SIMPLIFY THINGS A BIT.  MORE-OR-LESS CLOUDY SKIES
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS HAVE PICKED UP THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...GUSTING 20-30MPH ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER.  WINDS
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING...BUT LOSS OF
ISALLOBARIC SUPPORT AND MIXING...AND A WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.  LOWS TONIGHT
PROBABLY WON`T FALL TOO FAR...GENERALLY MID 20S-LOWER 30S
EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

POSITIVE PHASE OF THE PNA DOMINATES DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A MORE ACTIVE WINTER-LIKE PERIOD WITH
A ROUND OF SNOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
QUEBEC INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND
OF SNOW OVER EASTERN UPPER AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERN UPPER WILL RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THURSDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS MOVES EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST LIFT OVER NORTHEASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...WHERE THEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF M-32. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BRING EVEN COLDER 850 TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE
FEATURE...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -14 TO -19C. WITH
THESE COLD 850MB TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIMES...EXPECT SOME
LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
UPPER...NORTHWEST LOWER AND EVEN A BIT OVER NORTHEAST LOWER FRIDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS FROM ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT...BELOW
AN INCH DURING ANY 6 HOUR PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WITH THE EVER INCREASING SUN ANGLE. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING
ACCOMPANIED VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AND
YET ANOTHER COLD MORNING FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TO START OUT THE PERIOD AND VEER TO NORTHERLY DURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WINDS
SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE VERY SOUTHEASTERN CWA
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 40S AS THEY MAY REMAIN JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT TO START OUT THE DAY. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...ONLY
REACHING INTO THE 20S...AND THEN MODERATING A BIT UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE SATURDAY...INTO THE 30S. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN A BIT
COOLER SATURDAY MORNING...DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO OVER EASTERN UPPER
AND MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR NORTHERN LOWER...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL ONLY DROP TO THE LOW TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

BIT OF A CHALLENGING EXTENDED PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A COUPLE CLIPPER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE REGION SUNDAY...AND AGAIN MID WEEK. TIMING
WILL BE KEY WITH THESE AS P-TYPE CONCERNS ARISE...UNFORTUNATELY AT
THIS STAGE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PEGGING AN ARRIVAL TIME. EARLY
ARRIVAL ON SUNDAY COULD LEAD TO SNOW TO RAIN BACK TO SNOW
TRANSITIONS...AFTERNOON ARRIVAL WOULD START WITH RAIN AND TRANSITION
TO SNOW. SIMILAR TIMING ISSUES EXIST WITH THE MID WEEK SYSTEM AS
WELL. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE FIRST CLIPPER
PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HEADING INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WILL KEEP THOSE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 753 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

MVFR TO VFR CIGS.

LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST. COOL/RELATIVELY MOIST AIR WILL CIRCULATE AROUND THE
LOW...KEEPING OUR SKIES FAIRLY CLOUDY THRU THE FORECAST. CIGS WILL
RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR. NOT A LOT OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...IN THE AFTERNOON SOME -SN IS LIKELY
IN PLN...AND PERHAPS AT TVC.

OUR PRESENT GUSTY WSW WINDS WILL BECOME LESS GUSTY AND VEER TO THE
WNW TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY AGAIN ON THURSDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...TJL
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...JAZ



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