Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 211957

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
357 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

...Record high temperatures likely again Friday...

The unseasonable heat and high humidity is expected to continue over
the next several days. This is due in large part to a large and
blossoming upper level ridge which will park itself over the central
and eastern states.

Have only been able to pop a couple showers or storms near and over
Lake Huron thus far this afternoon due to a lack of a definitive
trigger in combination with dry mid/upper levels. So with that in
mind don`t expect too much more activity to form for the remainder
of the afternoon and evening. Have backed off pops into the low
chance/slight chance category, mainly only across northeast lower.
Could be a few showers or storms across the northern quarter of the
forecast area overnight as a surface warm front moves across the
region but overall not a whole lot of activity is expected.
Remaining warm and muggy overnight with patchy fog. Lows only in the
middle 60s to near 70. Hot and humid conditions again Friday as
ridging aloft dominates. More record high temperatures are expected.
Model soundings show a moderate cap in place which should stave off
convective development. Highs ranging from the middle 80s to lower
90s as 850 mb temperatures push 20C with good mixing.


.SHORT TERM...(Friday night through Sunday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

...Warm and humid air mass to occupy northern Michigan this

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Deep positively-tilted trough dominating the
western half of North America this afternoon...with broad but
"dirty" long wave ridging over eastern North America.  This ridge
being sullied by a broad weakness in the pattern over the mid-
Atlantic and southeastern U.S...and of course the continued
adventures of tropical cyclones "Jose" and "Maria" in the western
Atlantic.  This basic upper air configuration persists into the
weekend...with a closed upper high building northeast from the
southern Plains across the Great Lakes (500mb heights near 590DM).
Weakening cold front is pressing across Michigan...main
baroclinicity over the next several days will be west and north of
Michigan...curving around the upper ridge.  Weak height falls Sunday
will nudge a southwest-northeast orient front into Lake Superior and
western Upper.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Warm and humid weather heading into the
weekend...with a rather moist air mass in place resulting in mild
overnight lows (in the 60s versus normals in the mid-upper 40s).
Highs Saturday and Sunday are going to threaten records at most
climate stations.  Records for this weekend include (Sat/Sun):

ANJ: 84(1936)/88(1892)
GLR: 83(2004)/86(2007)
HTL: 88(1937)/86(2007)
TVC: 90(1937)/89(2007)
APN: 89(1937)/89(2007)
PLN: 86(2004)/87(2007)

Dew points are expected to remain in the 60s through the weekend...
so will definitely have a mid-summer feel to the first official
weekend of autumn.  Little rain threat is anticipated through the
weekend...with best rain chances expected to remain north of Lake


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

High Impact Weather Potential...

The persistent upper level ridging holds firm for the start of the
extended period, through Tuesday anyhow...keeping precipitation and
unseasonably warm readings locked in over the Great Lakes.  On
Wednesday...the log jam begins to break, and the troughing that had
been present over the central conus shifts east.  This will result
in quite the drastic pattern flip, bringing widespread rain chances
for Wednesday and much cooler temperatures by the H8
zero degree isotherm drops as far south as the Northern Lower.
Precip chances on day seven are up in the air yet...however, I think
it`s reasonable to think we could be looking at some lake effect
rain. But that`s a long way off yet and we`ll keep an eye on it.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

There could be a few popup showers or thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening from the heating of the day, best chance is at apn
with lesser chances at the other taf sites. Patchy fog and
possible areas of low clouds may form tonight in the humid
airmass. Mostly sunny hot and humid conditions expected during the
day Friday.


Issued at 353 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Continued light winds through tonight. Southerly winds will ramp
up Friday into Friday night as the surface pressure gradient
tightens up. Some choppy conditions will develop on Lake MI,
especially toward the far north end of the Lake. Advisory-level
waves are a possibility.




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