Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 260557
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
157 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

WARM FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING EXTENDING
FROM NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA THRU LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SE
ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC. ALL WIDESPREAD PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY EXITED OUR CWA EARLIER TODAY...AND EVEN ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR HAVE MOVED OUT. A SMALL
AREA OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS IS MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF ERN
WISCONSIN TOWARD NW LWR MICHIGAN ATTM. THIS CONVECTION DID PRODUCE
SOME LIGHTNING EARLIER THIS EVENING AS IT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN....FUELED WITHIN THE 850 MB THETA E AND INSTABILITY
GRADIENTS. THIS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN BOTH INTENSITY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF BOTH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH SUNSET AND GENERAL INSTABILITY AS IT
MOVES INTO THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MICHIGAN ATTM.
LATEST RAP13 DOES SUGGEST THAT BOTH THE 850 MB THETA E AXIS AND
INSTABILITY AXIS PUSH FURTHER NE INTO MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD LEND TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER AS WELL. WILL THEREFORE
MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

ON THE CURRENT SURFACE WEATHER MAP...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
THE WESTERN UPPER PENINSULA WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF MACKINAC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. APX AND SURROUNDING
RADARS SHOWED A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS SCATTERED ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND
POPS...THUNDER AND FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT.

SOUPY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
EASTERN UPPER SHOULD GET INTO THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS AS
WELL LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
THAT AREA TOO. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WITH APX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING 40 KNOTS AT 5000
FEET...THEY COULD BE GUSTY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVE REMOVED THUNDER
AS OVERALL INSTABILITY REMAINS LOW AND WE STILL HAVEN`T BEEN ABLE TO
PRODUCE ANY LIGHTNING TO THIS POINT. ACTIVITY (IF ANY) SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO NORTHWEST LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER OVERNIGHT (CHANCE POPS)
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVEN INCREASE A BIT TO ABOUT 6 C/KM SO WILL
LEAVE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THIS TIME. LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S EASTERN UPPER EARLY THEN RISING...TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S NORTHERN LOWER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD AND BEGIN TO EXERT A GREATER IMPACT ON
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT /WHEN
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN./ THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
BUT LINGER OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY /AS WILL ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/ AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MAINLY
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS ON TAP BY THURSDAY AS AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH MOVES EAST...AND GREAT LAKES REGION SEES 500 MB HEIGHT RISES
AND 850 MB RIDGE AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. TEMPERATURES TUES/WED/THUR
WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MAY...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY
GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND 70 OVER ERN UPPER...TO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 OVER NRN LOWER.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP SW FLOW EARLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF CENTRAL PLAINS
UPPER TROUGH. IT/LL CONTINUE TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS. 500 MB
IMPULSE WILL TRACK FROM ERN NB TO SRN MN BY LATE TUESDAY. APPROACH
OF THIS FEATURE...TOGETHER WITH 250 MB JET STREAK LIFTING TO
VICINITY OF LAKE MICHIGAN /WITH RRQ FORCING/...WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY. COUPLED
WITH H8 DEW POINTS RISING TO NEAR +10C AND SOME DAYTIME WARMING...
EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/STORMS TO MOVE NE INTO THE REGION AND/OR
DEVELOP OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY BY MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER FORCING PERSISTS...AND SURFACE
FRONT/WAVE SLIPS EWD INTO THE AREA.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL...THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...ASSUMING SUFFICIENT/MODEST WARMING AND MOISTENING...MIDDAY
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPES NEARING 1500 J/KG. WITH DEEP
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...500 MB WINDS OF 40-45 KTS...AND SOME DRY AIR
IN 700-500 MB LAYER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING S/E OF
A MANISTEE TO ROGERS CITY LINE.

WEDNESDAY...AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE WEAKENED BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WILL STILL BE IMPACTING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
IN ADDITION...ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO POISED TO CROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND FORCING WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED UPPER /AND SURFACE/ TROUGH WILL FINALLY DEPART
TO THE EAST...AND THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD FROM THE
MID MS RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING NEAR LAKE HURON. THEN
ON THURSDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE USUAL LAKE
BREEZE INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONES OVER ERN UPPER AND NE LOWER. WILL
TENTATIVELY KEEP SHOWERS OUT OF FORECAST THESE AREAS...BUT POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. WITH DEEP MIXING AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR +14C...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL PEAK WELL
INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.&&

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WE CAN EXPECT WARMER
TEMPERATURES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE WARMTH WILL BE
SHORT LAST AS A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UP INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL UNTIL THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A PASSING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOWERS THE POSSIBILITY FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
NIGHT. CHANCES DO INCREASE AGAIN WHEN THE COLD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
THE END OF THE WEEKEND HAS LESS OF A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY IS YET TO BE DECIDED DUE TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL SOME
DISTANCE UPSTREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON...

AN INTERESTING DAY IS SHAPING UP. CURRENT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WORKING THROUGH NW LOWER/STRAITS REGION ALONG AN INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO DAYBREAK...BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY
TO WANE. LATER TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2 PM AND
10PM...SFC LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT SETTLE INTO THE REGION.
WARM TEMPERATURES AND GROWING INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS
PLN/APN...BUT EVEN TVC/MBL ARE LIKELY TO GET INTO THE ACTION WITH
FRONTS/LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH.

INGREDIENTS AND FORCING ARE ALL THERE...AND ANTICIPATION IS THAT
ALL AIRPORTS WILL SEE SOME SORT OF RAINFALL TODAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT THE INGREDIENTS ARE ENOUGHT TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS AS WELL. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT NEAR PLN...AND ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AIRPORTS. MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ON TAP.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS...RESULTING IN OFFSHORE WIND GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS...AND IN COASTAL CONVERGENCE AREAS DESPITE LARGE OVERLAKE
STABILITY. THE GRADIENT LOOSENS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
WEAK SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT DRIFTS ON BY. THIS WILL RESULT IN OTHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ020-
     025-031.

LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SULLIVAN


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