Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 121904
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
304 PM EDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-- Mild temperatures through the middle of the week.

-- Precip chances return Thursday into Friday.

-- Lake effect snow chances return late this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Moisture starved/precipitation free surface low pressure will
continue to track across the Upper Peninsula through this
evening then depart off to the east tonight. Just some cirrus
clouds associated with this feature which will move out of the
area later this evening leaving mostly clear skies overnight.
Winds are expected to lighten up overnight so it`s kind of a
tricky temperature forecast. No snow cover left but light winds,
mostly clear skies and dry air advection will still likely lead
to good radiational cooling conditions. Lows early Wednesday
morning expected to range from the upper 20s to mid 30s
(although could see a few colder spots in low lying areas).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Pattern Synopsis:

Shortwave troughing will progress across the far northern Great
Lakes on Wednesday as broader ridging folds over the eastern CONUS.
A shortwave embedded in southwesterly upper-level flow looks to
support an elongated cyclone stretching from the southern Great
Plains into the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday.

Forecast Details:

Mild temperatures -- While northwest winds will work to keep
temperatures cooler on Wednesday than this afternoon, highs still
look to warm into the 50s and low 60s for many areas of northern
Michigan. Temperatures look to gradually cool through the week with
highs mainly in the mid to upper 40s on Thursday and a few degrees
cooler than that on Friday.

Precip Thursday-Friday -- As the aforementioned cyclone noses into
the Great Lakes, rain chances will spread from south to north across
the lower peninsula Thursday morning into the afternoon. There is
relatively high uncertainty at this time regarding how far north
rain will spread across the area, although current confidence is
that the majority of light rain will stay south of the bridge. A
second source of uncertainty is the potential for rain to switch
over to snow temporarily Thursday night into Friday morning. Should
temperatures cool close to/below freezing overnight, rain may switch
to wet snow for a time across parts of northern Michigan. Should
this occur, quick slushy accumulations of snow would be possible
underneath steadiest precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As shortwave troughing shifts east of the region, longwave troughing
looks to dig across central Canada and over the Great Lakes this
weekend. Strong forcing from said troughing looks to support a
cyclone that will trek across Ontario/Quebec. Rain chances are
anticipated along/ahead of the attendant cold front set to swing
across northern Michigan in the Saturday-Sunday timeframe. After the
front passes, cooler temperatures in the 20s and 30s look to filter
in -- bringing the potential for lake effect snow through the end of
the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
VFR through the period with just some cirrus clouds around.
Winds will be a bit gusty at times during the day but lighten up
some tonight.

&&

.MARINE...

Sub-advisory wind conditions expected to continue through at
least Wednesday night. Stronger northeast to north winds arrive
later Thursday into Friday, perhaps producing advisory conditions
on some of our nearshore waters.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AJS
SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...DJC
AVIATION...AJS
MARINE...AJS


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