Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 071509
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1109 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING BRINGING AN
END TO ANY SHOWERS. THIS WILL BRING FAIRLY NICE WEATHER FOR THE DAY.
A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ARRIVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
MUCH COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR SETTLES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1108 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

COLD FRONT NOW WELL SOUTH/EAST OF THE THE CWA...PUSHING THROUGH
FAR SE LOWER MICHIGAN INTO OHIO. AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS
DRIER...BUT NOT PARTICULARLY DRY...WITH DEWPOINTS STILL LARGELY
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. BUT DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL LIKELY
DRY THINGS OUT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER JUST A BIT MORE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST OTHER THAN THE TWEAK SKY
FORECASTS TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS. CONDITIONS RANGE FROM CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME EARLY CU DEVELOPMENT AND
PATCHY MID CLOUD ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION. ANTICIPATE MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS...ALREADY 78 AT OSC AND 76 AT
APN. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID
80S AT THOSE LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY WARMER...AND HAVE NUDGED TEMPS
UP FOR THOSE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

...DRY TODAY BUT MORE RAIN ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  MINIMAL.

OVERVIEW:  PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN /SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL FOR
SUMMER/ WILL CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS HELP TO CARVE OUT AND MAINTAIN TROUGHING ALOFT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODIC SHOWERS. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THIS MORNING...TAKING ANY REMAINING CONVECTION
WITH IT. A SECOND /STRONGER/ SHORT WAVE IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
TONIGHT...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION MAINLY
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE INTO
ONTARIO THIS MORNING...AS THE COLD FRONT TRAILING TO ITS SOUTH EXITS
NE LOWER SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...ANEMIC
SURFACE RIDGING WILL WORK INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES. WITH WEAKISH
CAA...GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW...AND ELEVATED SURFACE DEW POINTS...LOOK
FOR PATCHY POST FRONTAL SC TO MORPH INTO MIDDAY CU /AWAY FROM LAKE
INFLUENCES/. OVERALL...A PARTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER
MAINLY ERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD END BY 12Z.

AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL
SPREAD INLAND AS FRONT MOVES EWD. FOG SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH BY
AROUND 12Z.

TONIGHT...NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY DROP SE FROM NRN MN INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z TUESDAY...AND WILL SERVE TO SHARPEN/DEEPEN
TROUGH OVERHEAD. JET FORCING AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
VERY RESPECTABLE LARGE-SCALE RESPONSE /QG SUPPORT FOR ASCENT/ BY
LATE TONIGHT...WITH BOTH NAM/GFS SHOWING SURFACE LOW IN VICINITY
OF NRN LAKE MICHIGAN BY 12Z. SURGING H8 THETA-E AIR LATE
TONIGHT...COUPLED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE WAVE AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING...SUPPORTS INCREASING THE CURRENT RAIN CHANCES LATE
TONIGHT TO AT LEAST LIKELY. IN SPITE OF IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS /H5
IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS/ WILL DOWNPLAY THUNDER CHANCES GIVEN
UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL /SUPPORTING MINIMAL
INSTABILITY/. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

...MORE RAIN/COOL DOWN WITH WARMING/NICE WEATHER TO END THE WEEK...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHTNING POTENTIAL TUESDAY.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION:

GREAT LAKES TROUGHING IS SHARPENED UP EARLY ON WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE TUESDAY. THIS TROUGHING WILL LINGER A BIT
LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AS ONE MORE WAVE DROPS INTO THE
NORTH WOODS WEDNESDAY. THIS KEEPS THE COOLER AIR HANGING AROUND MORE
INTO THURSDAY. THE RIDGING WEST OF US WILL BE HEADING OUR WAY...BUT
PACIFIC ENERGY WILL BE SHOVING EASTWARD AND KNOCKING DOWN THIS
RIDGE...TRYING TO MAINTAIN THE FAIRLY REPETITIVE PATTERN OF KEEPING
US FROM GETTING TOO WARM. HINTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND SHOW THAT EVEN
MORE ENERGY MAY BE DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES...AMPLIFYING THE
TROUGH OVERHEAD...AGAIN...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: MAINLY THE QPF/RAINFALL AND THUNDER CHANCE
TUESDAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT STORMS/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND COLD FRONT SURROUNDING THE
WEEKEND.

TRENDS NOTED: COOLER LONGER INTO THURSDAY. SLOWER ARRIVAL OF CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THIS COMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

DATA BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT WITH A SASKATCHEWAN SHORTWAVE DRIVING
SE INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND LIFTING THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN TUESDAY. FAIRLY RESPECTABLE DEEP LAYER -DIVQ FORCING LOOKS
TO EXIT EAST OF US BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTED BY LEFT EXIT
REGION UPPER DIVERGENCE...POCKET OF LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION VIA
30-35KT LLJ. BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOWS PWATS TO RISE BACK TO
1.3". LAPSE RATES NOT GREAT AT 6C/KM...MAINLY ACROSS NRN LOWER WHILE
MUCAPES A FEW TO POSSIBLE SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG. MORE THAN LIKELY NOT
ENOUGH TO TAP INTO 40-45KT MID LEVEL JET ENERGY. THUS...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT/SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND MUCH LOWER THETA-E AIR FILLS IN OVER ALL OF NRN
MICHIGAN. THINGS QUIET DOWN FOR THE MOST PART TUES NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. COULD SEE A ROGUE DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER FROM AROUND
GREEN BAY TRYING TO SURVIVE LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THE EVENING TOWARD
GRAND TRAVERSE BAY. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE THAT
DIVES DOWN INTO NRN MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
CANNOT IGNORE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TIES TO THIS
FEATURE...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR NE LOWER TO POP OFF A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIGHT SHOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (THE LATTER IDEA
POSSIBLY NOT OCCURRING DIE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE).
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FEATURES DRIER/COOLER AIR AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING NRN MICHIGAN.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER BUT STILL ON THE MUGGY SIDE TUESDAY
DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIP...IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE
COOLER AIR SINKS IN WEDNESDAY WITH EVEN COOLER HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST
EVERYWHERE. A SLIGHT MODIFICATION THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BLEED EAST...ALLOWING A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARMING TREND...YET TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR JULY. WILL NOT GET ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION FRIDAY
FOR ANY CHANCE OF STORMS...BUT HEADING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY...STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES WITH AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE SLOWED...TIL
SATURDAY...JUST PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF AN EXPECTED DECENT COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN INTO THE 60S
FOR SOME BY SUNDAY...BUT WILL NOT GO THAT COOL YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 607 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

SFC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE NW LOWER TAF SITES...HELPING
DRAW IN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. HOWEVER...STILL HIGH DEW
POINTS/MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE COLDER WATERS WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD OF IFR/LIFT CIGS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS UNTIL MIXING CAN
OVERCOME/MIX THE CLOUDS OUT. THIS FRONT WILL BE CROSSING APN OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE SUN COULD ACTUALLY LIFT THIS
MOISTURE INTO A BRIEF MVFR DECK. THE DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THIS AS
WELL...MIXING OUT ANY CIGS FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IN ANY ONE TAF SITE SEEING CIG RESTRICTIONS...FAIR. MOST OF THE
DAY AND EVENING WILL BE VFR. AN INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND COLD
FRONT LATER TONIGHT/LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL BRING A NEW ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR CIGS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PREVAILING MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CIGS WILL BE BEHIND THE
FRONT....MORE SO TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS GUSTING OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 20 KTS....DYING OFF TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING/S COLD FRONT...MARINERS CAN EXPECT
WINDS TO SHIFT FROM SW TO W. STEADY ALBEIT MODEST WEST WINDS AND
THE RESULTING WAVES WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVING LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
SYNOPSIS...BS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...BS





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