Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 121043
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
643 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN
MICHIGAN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SATURDAY. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO MUCH OF SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BRING SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY MILDER READINGS FOR
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...CLOUDY AND CHILLY WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING...

IMPACTS: POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS OVER PORTIONS OF LAKES MICHIGAN AND
HURON TONIGHT.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS LAID OUT ACROSS THE NC CONUS THROUGH
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH CHANNEL OF STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS CORED
FROM NE-IA-WI-GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN CLUES TO SOME WEAK
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THIS FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS WEST OF US...IN SD/NE...ASSOCIATED WITH 65KT MID
LEVEL JET AND CORRIDOR OF LIGHT RAIN. WHILE MOISTURE IS FAIRLY
DEEP...IT IS MAINLY ALOFT...AS THE SHORTWAVE IS RIDING OVER THE TOP
OF DRY SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THIS HAS LIMITED THE RAINFALL INTENSITY.
NO THUNDER WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CORRIDOR OF RAINFALL...AS THE
INSTABILITY IS WELL SOUTH...ALONG MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
SE PART OF THE COUNTRY. WINDS WERE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS NRN MICHIGAN
WITH WEAK NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS HAS TRIED TO CONTINUE
DRYING OUT THE STRATUS THAT ENGULFS ALL BUT THE STRAITS AREA.
HOWEVER...WE STILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE LAKES UNDERNEATH
A STRONG INVERSION. THIS HAS BEEN ABLE TO TRAP THE CLOUDS/MOISTURE
AND ACTUALLY SPREAD THE STRATUS OUT ACROSS MORE OF EASTERN UPPER
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CEIL OF CLOUDS WERE IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S WITH UPPER 30S IN THE CLEAR AREAS.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

AS FAR AS THE EXPECTATIONS OF THE ACTUAL WEATHER...THERE IS STILL NO
MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST....EXCEPT FOR SOME GROWING CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD LIGHT RAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY
TONIGHT. SFC HIGHER PRESSURE SLOWLY EASES INTO NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH A HINT OF MORE ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS MAY
TRY TO FURTHER TEAR APART STRATUS...BUT FEELING IS THAT WITH SUCH A
COLD AIR MASS...AND FCST BFR SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING STILL RESPECTABLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THAT A THICKER STRATUS WILL AT LEAST RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS CLOUD WILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON...AS THICKER MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD TRY AND SEED THE LOWER DECK. AS A RESULT...AN OVERALL CLOUDY
DAY WILL BE THE RULE. NOW THE LOWEST LEVELS (BELOW 4KFT) WILL NOT
REALLY GET SATURATED DUE TO THE INVASION OF DRY HIGHER PRESSURE.
HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY...JET FORCING AND
POTENTIAL UPPER DIVERGENCE...ASSOCIATED WITH A GRADUAL TILTING AND
CLOSING OFF OF THE SHORTWAVE...WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT RAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FALL BACK INTO THE 40S TONIGHT FOR A COLD LIGHT
RAIN. MORE CELLULAR SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE WARMER GREAT LAKES
WITH LIGHT WINDS/DEEP LAKE INDUCED EL`S AND FAVORABLE DELTA T`S FOR
POTENTIAL WATERSPOUTS. LOWS LIKELY NOT GETTING ANY LOWER THAN THE
LOWER HALF OF THE 40S AGAIN...DUE TO CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...REMAINING UNSEASONABLY CHILLY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: POSSIBLE WATER SPOTS SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS LAKE HURON AND POSSIBLE FROST INLAND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOTS OF UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY AIR TO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. PERHAPS FINALLY TOWARD THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...BUILDING HEIGHTS AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY LEAD TO
MILDER TEMPERATURES. IN THE MEANTIME...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING PERIODIC LOW CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOLER AIR. THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING TAKING
ANY LEFTOVER RAIN WITH IT. CONTINUED OVER LAKE INSTABILITY SATURDAY
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO CRACK LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE SO HAVE LOWERED MAX
TEMPS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. THIS BRINGS INTO QUESTION
EXTENT/POSSIBILITY OF FROST SATURDAY NIGHT (NOT TO MENTION LINGERING
WINDS). HOWEVER...WILL KEEP IN THE PATCHY MENTION OF FROST ACROSS
INLAND LOW LYING SPOTS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND EASTERN UPPER UNTIL THE
PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE BRINGS THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THEN GENERALLY TAKES OVER FOR TUESDAY. A WEAKENING SYSTEM
LOOKS TO DROP IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO POSSIBLY THURSDAY BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT POPS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND TO LINE UP WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S THEN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...MVFR REDEVELOPING TONIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN...

COLD AIR OVER THE WARMER LAKES CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS GETTING TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AND
INVERSION. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE EXPANSION OF STRATUS EARLY
THIS MORNING. SEEMS LIKE THE MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO BE LIFTED
MORE STRONGLY UNDERNEATH THAT INVERSION FOR A GENERALLY CLOUDY
DAY. MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT TVC/MBL/APN EARLY IN THE
TAF...OTHERWISE STRATUS WILL BE VFR. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE/THICKEN INTO THE EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS AND REDEVELOPING MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SPRINKLES AROUND TVC/MBL THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER 10KTS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

OVERLAKE INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WHICH WILL LIKELY WANE INTO THE MORNING. CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE THICKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT IN ADVANCE
OF A DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
LIGHT RAINS OVER MAINLY LAKE HURON AND MICHIGAN. CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS TONIGHT
AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR LAKE HURON. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE LAKES. WINDS TURN SW SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN SLATED FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AS
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD





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