Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 162300
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
700 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow returns tonight, continuing through Sunday and Sunday
  night. Light snow accumulations, brisk winds, and low
  visibilities may impact travel.

- Additional light snow Monday night/Tuesday.

- Lengthy period of colder-than-normal temps.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

PV maxima drapes across central Lower MI attm...with attendant
surface cold front just behind, slowly making its way across
northern Lake Michigan as of 18z. Warm nose aloft plus enough mixing
to break up the earlier cloud deck allowing temps to warm nicely
into the 40s and even lower 50s at some of our usual suspect SW-flow-
downsloping sites (TVC). Clouds are generally filling back in along
and behind this front, though...with radar/obs suggesting a little
bit of rain is trying to make it to the ground in its wake,
especially over the EUP where moisture is a little better...and it`s
closer to better forcing aloft as well.

Tonight...another PV niblet slips across the region...driving an
uptick in rain showers (ultimately mixing with and changing over to
snow) this evening. Continued cold advection aloft supportive of a
return to lake contributions to the eventual snow
showers...particularly in the usual NW flow areas of the EUP and NW
Lower/Tip of the Mitt region. Not expecting much in the way of
accumulations attm...but falling snow combined with gusty winds and
temperatures falling below freezing could produce slick conditions
this evening into the early morning hours Sunday, perhaps not all
that dissimilar from last weekend.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:

SNOW RETURNS TONIGHT...SLICK ROADS POSSIBLE? One thing we have going
for us this time (in a positive, lower-impact way), compared to last
weekend, is gusty winds and decently dry air in the boundary
layer...such that any moisture out there (of which there is not
nearly as much as last weekend) is more likely to dry up before
temps fall tonight. Temps tonight should fall below freezing between
10pm and 2am starting from the northwest in the wake of the front
(and across the interior higher terrain a bit quicker as well).
Accumulations for tonight look much less than last Saturday
night...but do think a quick half inch to an inch is possible,
especially in NW flow areas of the EUP and NW Lower tonight.

Signals for the tiniest bit of low-level instability for the
remainder of this afternoon into tonight pique my interest
concerning locally vigorous lake effect snow at times...particularly
noting potential for a decent tap of the DGZ (big flakes, similar to
last weekend) as well... though still not expecting much more than a
half inch or an inch at best through 12z beneath these possibly more
vigorous snow bands. Gusty winds could also lead to lowered
visibilities at times beneath these heavier bands. It may be another
weekend to take it easy on the roads and leave a little extra
time...especially as we go into Sunday, when better snow chances are
likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Pattern/Synopsis: A deep and complex upper low will continue to
evolve over eastern Canada. A prominent spoke of energy will slowly
pivot south across northern MI Sunday. A weaker but faster-moving
wave dives south into the area Monday afternoon. At the surface,
cool high pressure builds from the northern to southern plains. A
secondary cold front drops south across the are Sunday night.

Forecast: Nw-erly low-level flow persists. This veers nnw for Sun
night, before backing on Monday. Deeper moisture pivots into eastern
upper MI early Sunday, then slowly progresses south, not exiting to
the south until Monday morning. 850mb temps range from -10 to -15C,
with the coldest temps generally found poking into nw lower MI (at
least until a more general push of colder air arrives late Monday).

Best overlap of lake instability and synoptic forcing/moisture, will
be Sunday into Sunday evening in eastern upper MI, and Sunday
afternoon thru Sun night in northern lower. Those periods/times
warrant the highest pops. However, given the mid-March sun angle and
lack of antecedent snow cover, diurnal effects will act to limit
SLRs to some degree Sunday afternoon (though perhaps too much cloud
cover for full-blown diurnal disruption). Nw to nnw-erly snowbelts
will do best. Snow totals Sun-Sun night range from 1-3" in nw and n
central lower MI, with the highest amounts east of Gd Trav Bay and
west of I-75. Locally higher totals are possible. Up to 2" progged
in eastern upper MI. Monday is a relative lull, though with a few
snow showers likely hanging around nw lower MI, especially in the
morning.

Max temps Sun and Mon near 30f in most places, though into the 30s
near Saginaw Bay both days. Lows Sun night upper teens to mid
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pattern/Synopsis: Ridge-west and trof-east pattern will persist thru
the upcoming work week. This maintains nw flow aloft. The occasional
clipper wave diving into the region will support increased chances
for snow at times. This pattern may start to break down next
weekend, finally becoming more progressive.

Forecast: Our first extended period of colder-than-normal temps in
quite some time. The most prominent clipper looks to be Tuesday,
with the highest pops and best chance for accumulating snow.
Cold/dry Canadian high pressure trails behind this clipper.
Opportunity for some very chilly nights mid-late week, especially
outside of lake effect regimes. Transition to warm-advection-
associated precip chances may arrive toward the tail end of the
forecast, though model disagreements in timing this are
considerable.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Deep low pressure will track eastward thru Ontario tonight and
into Quebec on Sunday. Colder air will continue to sweep into
Northern Michigan in the wake of the associated cold front over
the next 24 hours. Light rain showers will begin to mix with
light snow this evening...and then switch to all light snow
overnight as synoptic precip becomes more lake-induced with the
arrival of colder air. Prevailing conditions will be low
VFR/MVFR thru Sunday night...possibly dropping to IFR within
some of the heavier snow shower activity. Surface winds will
remain from the NW at 15 to 25 kts with some higher gusts
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty (25-30kts) SW winds becoming NW this afternoon starting first
on Lake MI and Whitefish Bay...behind a cold front. Some rain/snow
showers possible tonight into Sunday, especially northern Lake
MI/Northern Lake Huron and perhaps Whitefish Bay/St. Mary`s River.
Accumulating snow expected over land Sunday into Sunday night,
particularly in NW flow snow belts...with NW winds remaining gusty,
in high-end small craft advisory territory around 30kts or so. Winds
become more northerly Sunday night into Monday behind another front.
Highs Sunday and Monday will be much cooler, even a bit below
average for this time of year...in the lower to mid 30s...with
overnight lows in the 20s.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-
     344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FEF
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...FEF


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