Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 200743

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
343 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Warm and dry to end the week...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal. Gustier winds again

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Overnight surface and upper air charts
reveal a respectable ridge axis through the midwest with 500 MB
heights pushing 580+ DM into lower Michigan. Strong persistent
surface high pressure remains locked across the lower eastern
seaboard with ridging stretching up into the western lakes. Broad
lower pressure resides through the western CONUS with a developing
tighter P-gradient in the western lakes. Otherwise...a warm and fairly
quiet weather pattern remains across the eastern CONUS...particularly
by late October standards.

Primary Forecast Concerns...minimal. High pressure will largely
remain in control of northern Michigans weather through tonight.
Tightening P-gradient across the western Great Lakes will lead to
another day with gustier winds and marine headlines...but not
enough to worry about any land based wind headlines. High
temperatures today will run a good 15 to as much as 20 degrees
above normal. But after a cursory look at record values for the
20th...record high temperatures appear just a little out of reach
today (unless temps really overachieve).


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

...Unseasonably warm, showers Sunday...

Still another couple of days of unseasonably warm days as high
pressure shifts slowly off to the east Saturday and a cold front
approaches from the west Sunday. Meanwhile, a western trough slowly
ejects into the Plains and eventually the East over the coming days.
This will spell an eventual end to our unseasonably warm
temperatures next week. So expect partly sunny, breezy and warm
conditions Saturday with highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. A few
spots may challenge record highs with the record for the date of 70
at the SOO in jeopardy of being broken. A mild night Saturday night
with lows only in the middle and upper 50s. Shower chances will
increase Sunday from west to east as a cold front moves in from the
west. Highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Changes are forthcoming with the unseasonably warm pattern going
away (at least temporarily). Western trough moves eastward and takes
what looks like temporary residence over the area. The details of
how deep the trough gets and whether there is phasing with a
southern system moving up from the south are still uncertain. Will
continue to keep the forecast general for now and have chances for
mainly lake effect rain showers for the Tuesday and Wednesday time
frame (at this point it does not appear it will be cold enough for
the first flakes of snow in the higher terrain but still can`t
totally rule that out). If the ECMWF ends up bring on the right track
we would be dealing with a bombing out low in the eastern lakes by
midweek but it remains the outlier solution. High temperatures will
drop each day from the upper 50s and lower 60s Monday to the upper
40s to lower 50s Wednesday before rebounding into the lower and
middle 50s Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1141 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

No restrictions through the forecast with only a few passing high
clouds and no vis reductions. Still expect a round of wind shear
early this morning and again later this evening.


Issued at 253 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Winds and waves will continue to reach SCA criteria for much of our
nearshore areas thru this evening. Conditions will continue to reach
SCA criteria for most of Lake Michigan Friday into Friday evening as
southerly winds strengthen again between the departing surface ridge
axis and an approaching cold front. Dry wx will continue across our
entire area Friday thru Saturday and much of Saturday night. Chances
of showers will quickly increase late Saturday night and Sunday
ahead of that approaching cold front.


LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341-


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