Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 281958
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
358 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDER POTENTIAL
WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: OVERHEAD RIDGING DOMINATES
WITHIN A QUASI-AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS NOAM. CENTER
OF SURFACE HIGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...FORCING DEVELOPMENT OF
WEAK BACKSIDE RETURN FLOW AND SOME EARLY SUMMER WARMTH. AIRMASS IS A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ONE...WITH LATEST RAP GUIDANCE SHOWING UPWARDS
OF A FEW HUNDRED JOULES OF ML CAPE ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN. MIXING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LARGELY KEPT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN CHECK...ALTHOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAXIMA VIA LAKE INFLUENCES HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF GRR
CWA. WOULD EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING AS ASSOCIATED COLD POOLS/OUTFLOW INTERACT WITH
REMAINING NORTHERN MICHIGAN WARMTH.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
RESOLUTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THIS EVENING.

DETAILS: TABLE HAS LARGELY BEEN SET...WITH FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
MAXIMA AND STORM INITIATION FAVORING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
PROPAGATION OF ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE TIED TO THESE CORRIDORS OF
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND INDIVIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. PER SATELLITE
TRENDS AND SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION...WOULD EXPECT BEST "COVERAGE"
OF TO SLIDE NORTHEAST UP THROUGH INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.
LACK OF DEEP LAYER FORCING AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP
OVERALL COVERAGE LIMITED...SO NOT ALL INTERIOR AREAS WILL GET WET.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR/MINIMAL INSTABILITY ARGUE AGAINST ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL...ALTHOUGH ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT OF ACTIVITY ARGUES
FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS. OF COURSE...ANY VERY WELL ORGANIZED
UPDRAFT MAY BE CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE EVENT (ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS).

WITH INSTABILITY LOST...EXPECT A QUIET OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS...WITH PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...WARM FRIDAY/COOL WEEKEND WITH RAIN IN THE TRANSITION...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. FROST POSSIBILITIES
SATURDAY NIGHT.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SPLIT FLOW/BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HAVING DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ON NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN.
NORTHERN BRANCH FLOW CONFINED TO CANADA WHILE WEAKER/WAVY SOUTHERN
BRANCH FLOW IMPACTS THE CONTINENTAL U.S..  THERE ARE A PAIR OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OVER CENTRAL CANADA THAT WILL
EVENTUALLY PROVE IMPACTFUL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND.
SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE (POSSIBLY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED) OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA (SHOWS UP BETTER AT 700MB).
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT LYING
ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/NORTHERN WISCONSIN...ANOTHER BOUNDARY
LIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EXTENDING WEST INTO MISSOURI/KANSAS.

NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHTS FALLS WILL BEGIN SPILLING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRIDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES SATURDAY.  NORTHERN
MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN JUST ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE MAIN
NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY SATURDAY...WITH A COMBINED NORTHERN-SOUTHERN
BRANCH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH/REDEVELOP NORTHWARD TONIGHT...WHILE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH INTO WISCONSIN.  A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERN BRANCH HEIGHT FALLS WILL CROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MICHIGAN FRIDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT TO END THE WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:  INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  LOW TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLE FROST SATURDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN AND INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL ADVECT ACROSS MICHIGAN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
CLIMBING TO OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES.  WILL PROBABLY BE SOME SHOWERS
ONGOING ALONG THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH
MAY CLIP NORTHWEST LOWER WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN GETTING INTO
EASTERN UPPER BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ENHANCED BY
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HAVE A POST-FRONTAL (ANAFRONT)
RAIN BAND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH SOME HEATING AND
DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 60S.  COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION
BUBBLING UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER.  A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL
CIRCULATION CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PRE-
FRONTAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN...AND
POST-FRONTAL RAIN BAND WITH THE WIND SHIFT.  ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LOWER WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 80 DEGREE VICINITY.

SATURDAY...RAIN SHOULD BE ONGOING TO START SATURDAY AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN...GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  WILL BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY WITH A
BIT OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE NOT HELPING MUCH...WITH TEMPERATURES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.  COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTHEAST INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...IF WINDS CAN DECOUPLE
SUFFICIENTLY MAY HAVE SOME PROBLEMS WITH FROST.

SUNDAY...QUIET TO END THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
RESULTING IN COOL/DRY NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.  TEMPERATURES
STILL ON THE COOL SIDE RELATIVE TO LATE MAY AVERAGES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING NORTHERN MICHIGAN/S WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...PROVIDING PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER...FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS STILL THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FROST SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH THE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. NEXT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

...STILL MONITORING FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

VFR CU FIELD STARTING TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...WITH THIS EXPECTED TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH
TIME THIS AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE FAR FROM HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF
SITES. "BEST" POTENTIAL EXPECTED AT KAPN AFTER MID
AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN HERE CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW. STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IF THEY OCCUR.
ANY SHOWERS END THIS EVENING...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. LOW LEVEL JET PRODUCES MARGINAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP
FRIDAY MORNING UNDER VFR HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. ONCE AGAIN MAY
SEE A FEW VIGOROUS CU PRODUCE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AFTER MID MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY APPRECIABLE MIXING
OVERNIGHT...PREVENTING MUCH TAPPING INTO DEVELOPMENT OF LOW LEVEL
JET OVERNIGHT. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT BECOME A BIT
MORE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH SLOW APPROACH OF DEVELOPING
UPSTREAM COLD FRONT. PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SCA PRODUCING CONDITIONS...WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
OVER-WATER ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...MSB
MARINE...MSB



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