Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 311046
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
646 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR FROST TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...FROST INCREASINGLY LIKELY TONIGHT.

1030MB HIGH PRESSURE WAS JUST NORTH OF SUPERIOR...WHILE 1012MB LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN SOUTHERN INDIANA. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW STILL COVERS MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...THOUGH EASTERN UPPER
IS THINNING OUT SUBSTANTIALLY. RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE
THUMB/MBS/GRR...BUT COOL/DRY LOW LEVEL AIR ENTERING THE REGION
HAS ELIMINATED PRECIP HERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELATIVELY
TIGHT...WITH A N TO NE BREEZE ONGOING IN MOST LOCALES. CLOUD/TEMP
TRENDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

TODAY...THE HIGH AND LOW WILL MOVE SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING
US WITH A STEADY ENE SUB-850MB WIND...BUT SLACKENING THE GRADIENT BY
THE TAIL END OF THE DAY. SHORTWAVES OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKES WILL
TEND TO MINOR OUT AS THEY ENTER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
ALLOW OUR PRESENT CLOUD COVER TO THIN OUT. A NORTHERN STREAM KICKER
WAVE WILL APPROACH NW SUPERIOR LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WAVE HAS SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT OVER ND AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
SOME OF THIS COULD APPROACH NW SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD
EVENING. THERE WILL OTHERWISE BE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A COOL AIRMASS (850MB TEMPS 0C NORTH TO 5C
SOUTH) WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F.

TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGING HANGS BACK ACROSS SUPERIOR. EVEN AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS NON-NEGLIGIBLE...IN PARTICULAR OVER LOWER MI. THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE ACTUALLY CLOSES OFF JUST NE OF SUPERIOR BY MORNING.
IT REMAINS QUITE MOISTURE-STARVED...BUT WILL RESULT IN SOME CIRRUS
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THRU THE NIGHT. THESE TWO FACTORS
WILL KEEP TONIGHT FROM BEING AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT...
BUT WE SHOULD STILL DO PRETTY WELL. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS RANGE MOSTLY
THRU THE 30S...WITH THE GFS NUMBERS COLDER (SPITTING OUT 28F AT
GRAYLING AND 25 AT PLN!). BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS A BROAD AREA OF 30-
32F OVER THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER. GIVEN HOW DEEP INTO THE
SPRING GROWING SEASON WE ARE...WILL TAKE A FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE
APPROACH TO HEADLINES...POSTING A FREEZE WATCH IN MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER. FOR EASTERN UPPER...ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF WESTERN
CHIP/MACK COUNTIES SEEMS ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE. WILL NOT POST A
HEADLINE THERE FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: FROST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CHALLENGE: DETERMINING LOW TEMPERATURES TO DETERMINE THE
EXTENT OF THE FROST COVERAGE FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

(6/1)MONDAY...AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS INTO THE THE
REGION, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOLD AROUND +5C. SO THE SFC
TEMPERATURES COULD BE MID 60S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER 60S. WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND THE DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION, THE MIN RH FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20%
RANGE. WINDS WILL BE UP SOME, ESPECIALLY IN NE LOWER WITH THE GUST
APPROACHING 20 MPH. SO THIS COULD BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
OVERNIGHT, THE WITH THE LOW DEWPOINTS OF THE DAY, AND CLEAR, CALM
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION, AM EXPECTING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S. THIS IS CLOSER TO
THE MAV NUMBERS OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. SO FROST WILL BE THE CONCERN
FOR THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY IN N LOWER.

(6/2)TUESDAY...AS THE 500 MB LOW MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND +9C.
WHICH GIVES US THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS (MID TO UPPER 30S) THE MIN RH AGAIN FALLS
TO AROUND LOWER TO MID 20% RANGE. WINDS WON`T BE AS STRONG AS
MONDAY, BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR THE WINDS TO GUST TO 20 MPH
IF THE MIXING IS DEEP ENOUGH. OVERNIGHT, THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES
STAY AROUND 9C, SO THE SFC TEMPERATURE COULD RADIATE, IF FOLLOWING
THE INVERSION DOWN TO THE SFC, WOULD BE AROUND THE MID 40S.
ALTHOUGH, WITH THE CLEAR, CALM CONDITIONS, THE MID 30S ARE NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE TEMPERATURES STAY WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FROST OFF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

EXTENDED (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO THE WEATHER REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY SO FAR. MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
RAIN/THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY AS WELL WITH THE WARM FRONT NOT
NEARLY ORGANIZED AS ON YESTERDAY`S RUNS. THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO
TAKE THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY, AND LET IT
FIZZLE AS A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT. IF THIS IS THE CASE, THEN THE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY WILL BE DRIER THAN IS IN THE FORECAST AND
POSSIBLY PRODUCING A DECENT WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR SUMMER ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO FEED DRY AIR
INTO THE REGION. HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT AS THE DAY PROCEEDS.
SOME CIRRUS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT.

NE WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25KT AT TIMES TODAY...THEN DIMINISH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2015

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WIND GUSTS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN/SUPERIOR...INCREASING LONG FETCH LENGTH WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS TARGETING THE AREA AROUND SAGINAW BAY LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. SCA/S REMAIN FOR THIS AREA. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS REQUIRING A NORTHWARD EXTENSION
OF THE LAKE HURON SCA. WILL BE LOOKING AT THIS OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     MIZ016>019-021>024-027>030-032>035.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MIZ024-030-036-
     042.

LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ348-349.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ345-346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ


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