Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 051518
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1018 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

SURFACE TROF SLOWLY CROSSING NORTHERN MI TODAY...EXTENDING FROM A
1022MB LOW NNE OF THE SAULT. UNIMPRESSIVE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ONGOING IN NW LOWER MI (W FETCH)...SOMEWHAT MORE VIGOROUS IN
CHIPPEWA CO (WNW FETCH). A RIDGE AXIS...QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THE
TROF...WILL REACH LAKE MI/EASTERN UPPER TOWARD 00Z. THAT WILL BACK
WINDS TO W ON SUPERIOR...CUTTING OFF LAKE EFFECT IN CHIPPEWA CO AT
OR A BIT AFTER SUNSET. THE 850MB THERMAL TROF IS ARRIVING NOW OVER
NORTHERN LAKE MI...HELPING -SHSN BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVER NW LOWER...BUT STILL QUITE LIGHT. AS THE THERMAL TROF MOVES
INLAND...AND WARM ADVECTION LOWERS INVERSION HEIGHTS...EXPECT
SOMETHING OF A DOWNWARD TREND IN LAKE EFFECT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WILL STILL NEED TO PUSH HIGHER POPS DEEPER IN THE DAY.
WILL NEED TO ALLOW FOR A STRAY INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN FAR NW
CHIPPEWA CO...AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...OVERALL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT UP THROUGH THE STRAITS.

OVERVIEW: SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS CROSSING THE CWA THIS MORNING.
ATTENDING WEAK SFC LOW IS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONT/SFC TROUGH STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH LAKE MICHIGAN. WEAK
SYSTEM...BUT JUST ENOUGH FORCING/MOISTURE TO KICK OFF A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND PRODUCE AN UPTICK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS UP INTO EMMET COUNTY AND INTO THE STRAITS.

TODAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAK-ISH QG-ASCENT WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LITTLE FANFARE. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TURNS
A BIT MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH A BIT COLDER AIR
SLIPPING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SPREAD LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS
BACK INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO THE SNOW BELTS AND LARGELY OCCUR THIS MORNING. BUT
GIVEN MODEST OVER LAKE INSTABILITY AND INVERSION HEIGHTS...
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE.

TONIGHT...LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THEN...STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT. AND ONCE AGAIN...MAIN IMPACT WILL BE TO BRING
ANOTHER UPTICK IN LAKE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE TIP OF THE
MITT/STRAITS REGION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS SOUTHWEST. INSTABILITY
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...SO I DON/T
FORESEE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. BUT THEN AGAIN...THIS IS LAKE
EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN SET TO TRANSITION TO
A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOW MOVING ONE...WITH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY OVERHEAD TROUGHING BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. SUCH CHANGES BROUGHT ABOUT BY WELL ADVERTISED WESTERN
NOAM RIDGE BUILDING...ITSELF SPURRED ALONG BY 180+ KNOT EXTENDED
EAST ASIAN JET STREAK RACING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. STEP-DOWN
PROCESS TO THE ABOVE BEGINS WITH PASSAGE OF RELATIVELY WEAK WAVE
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...KICKING OFF SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
PROCESS. MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND SLOWER MOVING DISTURBANCE ARRIVES TO
END THE WEEKEND AS AMPLIFICATION KICKS INTO OVERDRIVE.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: ADDRESSING CLOUD...
TEMPERATURE...AND SNOW CHANCES (AND AMOUNTS) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DETAILS: WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING
RACES OFF TO THE EAST BY AFTERNOON...DRAGGING A WEAKENING SURFACE
TROUGH SOUTH INTO OUR AREA IN THE PROCESS. BEST FORCING IS WELL
REMOVED TO OUR NORTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER SHORTWAVE.
COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING/FORCED LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE/AND SOME
MINOR LAKE CONTRIBUTION EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING A TON OF SNOW
(PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO) GIVEN LIMITED DYNAMICS AND VERY MARGINAL
LAKE PROCESSES (DELTA T/S RIGHT AROUND 13C/14C). LOSS OF WHAT
SYNOPTIC CONTRIBUTION THERE IS AND MAINTENANCE OF WEAK LAKE
PROCESSES SHOULD RESULT IN DIMINISHING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME LIGHT
ACTIVITY (MAYBE JUST FLURRIES) IN THE SNOW BELTS...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.

KINDA AN INTERESTING SET-UP EXPECTED TO UNFOLD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS THAT SURFACE TROUGH INTENSIFIES AND OFF THE DECK
THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS. ABOVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO EXPAND AN AREA
OF FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW...WITH EASTERN UPPER AND THE TIP OF THE MITT
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE TO PICK UP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. BY
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WE BEGIN TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
DIGGING NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY...WITH A DEVELOPING SURGE OF WAA
BRINGING THE THREAT FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED (PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER LIKELY
TO EXCEED FREEZING BY A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON).

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SLOW MOVING TROUGH AND PERIODS
OF SNOW WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
EXACTLY ATTENDANT SURFACE REFLECTION SETS UP AND MOVES...WHICH WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY LAKE
CONTRIBUTION. DOES APPEAR LAKE PROCESSES MAY BE HELD IN CHECK
THROUGH MONDAY WITH H8 TEMPS REMAINING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF COLDER AIR STILL MUCH IN QUESTION...AS IS EXACT
WIND DIRECTION BEHIND SLOWLY RETREATING SURFACE LOW. WHILE PATTERN
DEFINITELY SUPPORTS MORE PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS VERY HIGH ON EXACT LAKE CONTRIBUTIONS AND LOCATIONS OF
IMPACT. WILL SAY CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT MORE OF A NORTH TO
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ENVIRONMENT...SUGGESTING SHORELINE AREAS ALONG
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWS BY LATER
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OF COURSE...THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN
THE COMING DAYS...AND MUCH TOO EARLY TO SHOW THAT KIND OFF
SPECIFICITY IN THE FORECAST JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE WESTERLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL PUSH
SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CLOUD COVER ACROSS NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY. CLOUD COVER MAY THIN OUT TONIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
VFR CIGS POSSIBLE. BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ADVANCE INTO THE REGION
LATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND ANOTHER UPTICK IN
LAKE SNOW SHOWERS.

WINDS: UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASING WINDS ALOFT
OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO LLWS CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINAL SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

LIGHTER WINDS/WAVES ANTICIPATED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BUT
STRONGER SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTS AND
WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA PARTICULARLY ON LAKE
MICHIGAN. GUSTINESS PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY WHILE WINDS VEER MORE
NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JZ
NEAR TERM...ADAM
SHORT TERM...ADAM/MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...ADAM


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