Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 172005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight and Saturday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

...Taste of early spring continues...

High Impact Weather Potential: Nothing.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Much advertised warm-up underway as warm
air advection processes continue to ramp up on backside of departing
surface high. Initial warming was partially held in check by rather
extensive area of high and mid level clouds. These are beginning to
thin rapidly from the west, and temperatures have begun to respond
accordingly, with readings now spiking well into the 30s and 40s.

Warm air advection simply increases heading through tonight as a
weak upper level wave and attendant moisture starved "cold" front
approach and eventually pass through northern Michigan. Simply no
cold air behind this frontal system, with all systems go for even
warmer temperatures on Saturday.

Primary forecast concerns: Addressing potential for some low cloud
development later tonight into Saturday. Temperature trends through
the period.

Details: Band of high/mid level clouds should rotate largely east of
the area by this evening, leaving a period of mostly clear skies.
Still some hints of stratus and patchy fog development overnight.
Not quite sold on this idea, with those stratus producing progs
already much too moist in the low levels (also very little snow melt
today to add to the near surface moisture). Last nights satellite
trends only showed a very small and narrow patch of stratus over
northeast Wisconsin. Think the best potential for stratus/fog will
be across eastern upper, but even here have gone no more than partly
cloudy. Bigger story will be those temperatures, as maintenance of a
shallow mixed layer and continued advection processes suggest
readings will rise overnight after an early evening fall-off.
Believe most areas will just flirt with freezing for a time early
this evening, with readings rising into the mid and upper 30s during
the overnight. Passage of that weak front during the early morning
will have little effect on those temperatures with simply no cold
air behind it.

Saturday`s temperatures dependent on late night cloud trends, with
more than anticipated stratus keeping reading several degrees cooler
than planned. As mentioned, not going this cloudier direction just
yet, leaving the opportunity for temperatures to shoot well above
normal. Given the mild start to the day, simply see little reason
temperatures won`t climb well into the 40s, with much of the area
across northeast lower Michigan making a run at 50 degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

...Mainly dry...

High Impact Weather Potential...None, but the rivers are a concern
with the snow melt.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Saturday night, as the 500 mb shortwave
trough moves east of the Ohio Valley, the heights over the Upper
Great Lakes begin to rise, and with them the 850 mb temperatures.
There is a backdoor cold front that stymies the 850 mb temperatures
initially, but once the sfc high move over southern Hudson Bay/James
Bay Sunday night, the return flow begins to warm the region up as
the 500 mb ridge axis moves through on Monday. GFS hints at
precipitation getting into NW lower near MBL/FKS by 21z/Mon. ECMWF
(00z) has the precipitation in E Wisconsin.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Fog is possible on each night, but it
will depend on the saturation and strength of the inversion.
Saturday night doesn`t great with the hydrolapse not increasing much
with height, and kind of an isothermal inversion. Not to mention
that the moisture is very shallow. Initially, Sunday night looked
better on the GFS, the ECMWF looked decent, but now both models have
seemed to back off. Will see how this plays out. Will keep patchy
fog in the grids for now.


.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

High impact weather potential: None.

Primary concerns through the extended period revolve around
continued well above normal temperatures and rain chances Monday
night through Tuesday. 17/12z suite of deterministic guidance, while
still consistent in the overall pattern and strength on Monday
night/Tuesday`s low pressure in southern Canada, has reintroduced
some disagreement with cold frontal and associated precipitation
timing. Will trend the forecast to represent the slower and more
consistent ECMWF/GEM rather than what`s now the outlier, GFS. All in
all, expecting rain to overspread the area from west to east during
the second half of Monday night into the day Tuesday before
diminishing Tuesday afternoon as the cold front continues to
progress eastward.

Otherwise, aside from a few scattered showers during the midweek
timeframe as several weak ripples in the flow move across far
northern areas, the main story will certainly be continued above
normal temperatures with highs ranging from the 40s to even some low
50s in spots throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

VFR conditions gives way to some potential light mist and low
cloud development later tonight as low level moisture slowly
increases. Still think guidance is overdone with amount of stratus
development given current very dry airmass. Will tentatively
carry just few/scattered stratus wording and minor vis
restrictions in mist development. Barring widespread stratus
development later tonight, should see quick improvement once again
Saturday morning.

Light surface winds through the period. Still looks like a period
of LLWS overnight as off-the-deck winds briefly ramp up ahead of
an approaching weak cold front.


Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017

Southwest to west winds will pick-up tonight, although a
very stable over-water environment should prevent widespread SCA
conditions (although suppose a few isolated gusts to 25 knots are
possible on northern Lake Michigan). West winds remain a bit gusty
Saturday into Saturday evening, with light winds returning by Sunday
as high pressure builds back into the region.




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