Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 011627
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1127 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

14Z SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WEST INTO MISSOURI/EASTERN
KANSAS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VORTICITY CENTER TRACKING EAST
FROM SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AHEAD OF A
BROAD POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO BACK
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  MID LEVELS (ABOVE 700MB) ARE DRY ACROSS
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING PER 12Z RAOBS...BUT MOIST BELOW 700MB WITH AN
AREA OF VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES CROSSING NORTHERN LOWER EARLIER
THIS MORNING.  THAT ACTIVITY HAS WOUND DOWN...AND CLOUDS HAVE
THINNED AS SOME QG SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA.  EXCEPT
HAS BEEN WEST OF I-75 IN NORTHERN LOWER WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHING STRATOCUMULUS AND SNOW SHOWERS INLAND.  THERE
IS AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...APPEARS TO BE
PRETTY SHALLOW WITH MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW 850MB PER 12Z MPX
SOUNDING.

CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST LOWER WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES...WHILE ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER WILL SEE SUN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE LOW CLOUDS
AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS WISCONSIN ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE EAST
COAST WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES.
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDED SOUTHWEST THROUGH SRN MANITOBA AND ND. POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW WERE SEEN THERE...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
AND VORT MAX DROPPING SE TOWARD FAR NE MT. FURTHER UPSTREAM
ACROSS CALIFORNIA...A CLOSED UPPER LOW WAS SENDING OUT VORTICITY
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY.
IN THIS REGION...GENERAL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS WERE
OCCURRING...ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL ZONE
AND DEEPER MOISTURE...WHICH WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF US. ALONG THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS CANADA...MOISTURE WAS MUCH MORE SCANT....ONLY
0.15" WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF EVEN DRIER AIR. SFC OBS AND RADAR
ONLY SHOWING POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE SRN END OF THE
FRONT...AHEAD OF THE STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

ACROSS NRN MI...WE DO HAVE SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND A VERY
SHALLOW SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA. A BAND OF LAKE SNOW IS SEEN
ON SATELLITE DATA JUST OFF THE NW LOWER COAST. THIS BAND WAS
HARDLY ENHANCED...WITH JUST SOME INCREASED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE...BUT NO SYNOPTIC SNOW. FLURRIES WERE SEEN WITH THIS
BAND EARLIER ACROSS BEAVER ISLAND.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

LAKE BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WORK INTO NW LOWER MICHIGAN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AS IT PULLS AWAY
FROM THE LAKE. MARGINAL OVERLAKE INSTABILITY EXISTS ATTM...AND THE
MID LEVEL MOISTURE EXITS THROUGH MID MORNING...WHILE WINDS SHIFT
OUT OF THE WSW. LIKELY SNOWS WILL IMPACT THE MANISTEE/FRANKFORT
AND LEELANAU COUNTY AREA...WITH CHANCES DROPPING OFF QUICKLY
EASTWARD. MOST LIKELY SEE NO SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY...BUT THE WSW FLOW AND MARGINAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
SUGGESTING A SMALL 30-40% CHANCE ACROSS NW LOWER...MAINLY SOUTH OF
CHARLEVOIX.

FOR THE NEXT BONA FIDE CHANCE FOR SNOW...WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL JET AND
DIVERGENCE ALOFT/MAX -DIVQ ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING FOR THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING SNOW. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS MINIMAL...AND DOUBT THERE WILL BE
ANYTHING OF CONSEQUENCE. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES SEEM
APPROPRIATE...BUT WILL JUST A CARRY A CHANCE FOR SNOW RIGHT NOW.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S AND LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY
10-15F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY BRINGING
INCREASING SUNSHINE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT
MILDER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY UP TOWARD NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE (THE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN WARMER AIR TO THE SOUTH
AND ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH) THEN SURGES NORTHWARD TUESDAY BOUYED BY
AN IMPRESSIVE 160 KNOT 250 MB JET...WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A QUICK
THUMP OF SNOW TUESDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...MUCH OF
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FALL FROM MID MORNING TIL LATE AFTERNOON (THE
SNOW WILL HAVE A LITTLE GIRTH TO IT AS WELL SO IT WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DRIVE ON). AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL THEN FOLLOW
AND MOVE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN MORE VERY CHILLY
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY THEN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY AT BEST...TEMPERATURES
LIKELY ACTUALLY SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. LOWS IN THE SNEAKY
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW AND ABOVE ZERO MONDAY NIGHT OUT AHEAD OF
INCREASING CLOUDINESS...THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST PART WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

...ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST THEN MILDER TEMPERATURES...

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL INUNDATE THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY. LUCKILY THE FLOW IS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY MODERATE ONCE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY WITH MILDER READINGS ON SATURDAY AS WELL. NO POPS THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK
SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE TEENS...FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
FRIDAY AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY (A FEW SPOTS MAY
BREAK THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WELL OVER A MONTH).
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT...AND
THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DECAY AS IT CONTINUES TO CROSS
THROUGH MBL/TVC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MAYBE THIS SNOW CAN
AFFECT PLN...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS RELATIVELY LOW. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE SCT-BKN AND LIFT TO VFR INTO
THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS AOB 10KTS.

THIS EVENING...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT. A FAIRLY BRIEF BURST OF SNOW AND ENHANCED MVFR CIGS IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MINOR. WINDS BECOMING WEST 8-10KTS AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY TONIGHT.

TREND LATE TONIGHT FOR DRIER AIR TO START SCATTERING OUT CLOUDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD


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