Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 281946
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
346 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH. AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER RISK.

A BIT OF A CHANCE TO THE FLAVOR OF THE FORECAST HEADING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH THE BIGGEST TWEAK BEING TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FOR A
GOOD CHUNK OF NORTHERN LOWER...AND MAY WELL NEED TO ULTIMATELY BEEF
UP WORDING INTO PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER AS WELL. EARLY AFTERNOON
ANALYSIS PLACES A FAIRLY ROBUST AND SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WORKING
THROUGH NORTHEASTERN IOWA...WITH A SECONDARY FEATURE OF INTEREST
JUST NOW SKIRTING THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER AS OF 19Z. QUITE THE
SWATH OF RAIN WITH THE IOWA WAVE...TIED TO AN ELONGATED AXIS OF
MODEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING COUPLED WITH HIGHER PWAT
VALUES PUSHING 1.8 INCHES...AND CERTAINLY ENHANCED VIA WARM RAIN
PROCESSES THANKS TO RATHER HIGH FREEZING LEVELS OFF TO OUR WEST.
RADAR TRENDS THE PAST FEW HOURS CONTINUE TO SHOW RAIN SPREADING
EASTWARD AS THE PARENT WAVE DOES THE SAME...SUCH THAT PRECIP APPEARS
TO BE JUST STARTING TO KNOCK ON THE DOOR OF FAR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...THOUGH INITIAL RATHER DRY AIR BELOW 700MB IS CURRENTLY
HINDERING THAT PROCESS.

HEADING INTO THE EVENING...GUT FEELING IS RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF NORTHERN LOWER...TIED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID LEVEL FGEN/DEFORMATION AXIS PROGGED TO BASICALLY LAY OUT OVER
THE AREA. MEANWHILE...APPROACH AND ATTEMPTED PHASE OF THE MORE
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL BRIEFLY HELP TO INTENSIFY THAT MID LEVEL
FORCING FOR A TIME...LIKELY HELPING POP SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS INTO
EASTERN UPPER...WITH THOSE AIDED TO SOME DEGREE BY BETTER LAPSE
RATES JUST CLIPPING THAT AREA. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THE THUNDER IDEA
FOR ANY ONE SPOT...THOUGH THE CHANCE ISN`T TOTALLY ZERO EITHER.
LATEST NLDN/TOTAL LIGHTNING PLOTS CONTINUE TO PEG OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING INTO CENTRAL IOWA...TIED TO A NOTABLE STEEPER AXIS OF 850-
700MB LAPSE RATES...WITH THAT AREA EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
LOWER AFTER 03Z. AS SUCH...WILL OF COURSE KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS...BUT GIVEN ONLY A ROGUE STRIKE OR TWO AT WORST...THE CURRENT
PLAN IS TO FOREGO ANY MENTION. INSTEAD...HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY RAISED
POPS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT MILDER THAN
LAST...GENERALLY STUCK IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...SHOWERS SATURDAY BUT GETTING WARMER BEYOND...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES BLOCKING
OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN...WITH BROAD/FLAT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST AND STRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH WITH ANOTHER MORE
SUBTLE WAVE OVER SASKATCHEWAN (SHOWS UP BETTER IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY).  THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S./GULF OF MEXICO.  1024MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA...SURFACE WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH MIDWEST SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CROSSING WESTERN IOWA.  AXIS OF 1.00-1.50 INCH PRECIPITABLE
WATER AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

STRONGLY -PNA LOOK TO THE PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST...WITH
ADDITIONAL ENERGY POURING SOUTHEAST FROM ALASKA/NORTHEAST SIBERIA
INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  SUPPRESSED
HEIGHTS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/NORTHEAST PACIFIC WILL SEND HIGHER
HEIGHTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IN THE NEAR TERM...SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
GOING TO BE THE CONCERN FOR THIS WEEKEND.  HOW LONG THIS FEATURE
LINGERS OVER MICHIGAN IS AN ISSUE WITH THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLE MEAN
SLOW TO PULL THIS ENERGY OFF TO THE EAST...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN ALSO GETS INTO THE ACT AS IT DROPS INTO THE UPPER LAKES
SATURDAY.  AMERICAN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THIS FEATURE...EARLIER CANADIAN GUIDANCE WAS SLOWER BUT HAS
TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE.  CONSENSUS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS
TO TREND TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA...WITH RISING HEIGHTS IN
THE OFFING FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.  WESTERN IOWA SURFACE
LOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OUTRUNS
IT...LEAVING BEHIND A GENERALLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
UPPER LAKES THIS WEEKEND.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: RAIN EVOLUTION SATURDAY...FOG POTENTIAL
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...

SATURDAY...EXPECT RAIN TO BE ONGOING DAYBREAK SATURDAY BETWEEN
UPSTREAM RAINFALL SPREADING ACROSS WISCONSIN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...
AND SASKATCHEWAN SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR/
UPPER MICHIGAN. BEST RAIN CHANCE WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE DAY...PRECIP COVERAGE MAY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS FORCING SHIFTS EAST.  SOME HINTS OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME SHOWERS POPPING ALONG
CONVERGING LAKE BREEZES...AND SREF QPF PROBABILITIES LOOKING VERY
"CONVECTIVEY" DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL COVER THAT POSSIBILITY
WITH SCATTERED WORDING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ANTICIPATE PRECIP
THREAT WILL BE MOSTLY OVER BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH SOME
CLEARING/LIGHT WINDS INCREASING THE PROBABILITY FOR LOW CLOUD AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SUNDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AT LEAST
SYNOPTICALLY.  STRATUS/FOG MAY BE PREVALENT TO START THE
DAY...EXPECT THAT TO MIX OUT BY AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
BACK ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S EXPECTED AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.  SOME POSSIBILITY FOR MORE FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO OR ABOVE 588DM ON MONDAY...WHICH
SHOULD BRING ABOUT A WARM AND SOMEWHAT STICKIER DAY...IF IT GETS TOO
STICKY THEN WE MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE TO CONSIDER SOME POP-UP AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINT FORECASTS ARE
ALL OVER THE PLACE THIS FAR OUT...SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE
TIME BEING.  MORE WIDESPREAD 80S FOR HIGHS EXPECTED MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SEPTEMBER WILL GET OFF TO A WARM START AS WE SEE A SUBSTANTIAL
PATTERN CHANGE...WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND
RIDGING OVER THE EAST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. ADDED SOME POPS FOR THE WED/THU AFTERNOON
PERIODS OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE ADVECTING
IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH INTO MIDWEEK SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SHOWER FORMATION...WITH SOME ENHANCED FORCING AHEAD OF THE
LAKE BREEZES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR THROUGH THE EVENING WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
GIVING WAY TO THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH TIME. LOOKING MORE
LIKELY THAT PERIODS OF RAIN/SHOWERS WILL ROLL THROUGH MUCH OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IMPACTING TVC AND MBL
WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH ISN`T
EXACTLY HIGH AROUND PLN/APN...BUT SUSPECT EVEN THESE SITES WILL
SEE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE PENDING THE ACTUAL COVERAGE OF RAIN LATER
TONIGHT...WITH EVEN SOME IFR CEILINGS AROUND MBL/TVC THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY. GUSTIER SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY EVENING
WILL HANG UNDER 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SOMEWHAT GUSTY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO LATE EVENING WILL WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY IS REPLACED BY
HIGH PRESSURE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. AFTER THAT...A GREAT
STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER BOATING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED AS BOTH LOW
LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...SETTING UP MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS ALONG WITH
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE



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