Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 271356

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
956 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Issued at 956 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Northern MI on the edge of eastern US ridge. Area is in right
entrance region of 110kt upper jet which is riding over the top of
the ridge. Wave on WV loop can be seen moving into WI with deep
moisture and isentropic upglide ahead. Surface reflection of wave
seen in surface low over IA.

Large area of precipitation over the western and central Great Lakes
will continue northeast throughout the day. Instability lacking as
shown on 12z kapx sounding with no CAPE available...cloudy skies and
temps not moving much will limit afternoon instability as well.
Areas in the SE part of CWA could see some thunder around midday
based on current speed/direction of convection over SW MI.
Otherwise...could be a few rumbles of thunder but mostly just a
cloudy/showery day. Lowering clouds and areas of fog as seen
upstream cover the region tonight before some improvement Sunday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

...Showers and a few thunderstorms today...

High impact weather potential: A few storms but no severe weather

Overview: Large/closed upper level ridge spans the mid atlantic and
SE CONUS with ridging stretching into the eastern lakes. Upper level
short wave trough (with several embedded waves) is dipping into the
northern and central plains, with a weak sfc low forming in the
Missouri/Illinois area in the vicinity of tightening baroclinic zone
stretching across the midwest. Strong moisture transport is underway
through the plains and into the midwest ahead of the main trough.
Several areas/clusters of showers of storms are congealing into the
midwest and lower lakes region, aided by upper level divergence and
QG-forcing max along the entrance region of an upper jet streak that
stretches from the upper midwest into Canada. Up this way, surface
high pressure resides across much of the Great Lakes with quiet
weather thus far, although higher level cloud cover is already
spreading up into the region and some elevated precip returns are
pushing up through northern Lake Michigan.

Today: Upper level divergence max/QG-forcing bullseye and weak-ish
surface reflection looking to swing up through the state through
the course of the day, following on the heels of the upper jet
streak bowing northward into Canada. This should drag along
upstream batch of showers and some thunderstorms up through CWA
bringing most areas some rainfall today. Have nudged up inherited
POPs into the likely- categorical range and attempted to add some
timing detail of arrival of rainfall to the forecast. Thunderstorm
potential is very marginal, particularly in the U.P., with just a
few hundred J/KG of skinny cape anticipated. Will leave it in the
forecast, but just call it a chance or slight chance. Otherwise,
with anticipated cloud cover and rainfall, have lowered forecast
max temps by several degrees.

Tonight: Upper divergence max and QG-forcing bullseye slides on by
to the northeast this evening taking main batch of rainfall out of
the CWA, while mid level dry slot punches up into northern Michigan.
Widespread precip ends for the most part. But, lots of low level
moisture/cloud cover lingers back behind and forecast soundings
suggest at least some potential for drizzle. So, will keep some
lower end pops for showers/patchy drizzle for the late evening and

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Mid level disturbance slides east of the area Sunday with deep layer
(850-500mb) drying surging into the area from the west with weak
surface high.  May have to contend with some low clouds/fog early in
the day, but that should give way to increasing amounts of sunshine
as the day progresses (outside of diurnal cu).  It may be a touch
breezy at times, with west/northwest winds of 20 knots at the top of
the mixed layer.   850mb thermal trough (+12 to +14c) swinging
through the northern lakes throughout the day, which went brought
down dry adiabatically results in high temperatures in the middle to
upper 70s.

Low amplitude ridging slides across the area Sunday night and
Monday, resulting in few sensible weather concerns.  High
temperatures a few degrees warmer on Monday as airmass gradually
warms. Surface high pressure pushes east of the area Monday night as
weak front/mid level disturbance begins to push through the upper
Midwest.  Humidity levels on the way up with increasing low level
moisture advection on the backside of departing high.  Will
introduce shower/tstm chances over west/northwest areas Monday
night, and across the remainder of the area on Tuesday as surface
front sags into the northern lakes.

Remainder of the week features building high amplitude ridging over
the center of the CONUS with northern Michigan remaining in
northwest flow with upper trough anchored east of Hudson Bay.  This
may result in several days of dry and seasonably cool conditions.
The one caveat to this is the possibility that a convective complex
could slide over the developing ridge to our west and push across
the Great Lakes (ring of fire).  Something to keep an eye on, but
right now the forecast will show little if any precipitation for the
second half of the week.  Temperatures near to possibly slightly
below normal, with northern Michigan sitting on the western edge of
850mb thermal trough.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 854 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

TAF update to go bit more pessimistic for the overnight hours.
LIFR conditions over SW WI/IA should move in after midnight. In
the meantime...lowering of clouds and showers throughout the day.
MVFR expected in most areas by midday.


Issued at 330 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 2016

Southeast to south flow will increase today into tonight, with some
gusts pushing 20 knots. But winds/waves are expected to largely
remain below marine headline criteria. Compact area of low pressure
moves northeast through the Great Lakes later this evening and
overnight, turning winds more westerly by Sunday morning. Some
gustiness persists into Sunday, but should largely remain below
headline criteria.

Weather-wise, fairly widespread showers and some thunderstorms will
pass through the region today, diminishing tonight.


.APX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Keysor
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