Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 050650
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
150 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

WEAK/ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE THIS EVENING. 500 MB TROUGH IS MOVING THRU ERN UPR
MICHIGAN AND ERN WISCONSIN TOWARD OUR CWA ATTM. UPSTREAM RADARS
WITHIN THIS AREA INDICATE AN INCREASE IN LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE...AND IR SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF
COOLING CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE 500 MB TROUGH. SURFACE OBS OVER
WISCONSIN CONFIRMS THAT SOME SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN LIGHT SNOW IS
REACHING THE GROUND...WITH LOWEST VSBYS AROUND 3SM WITH LIGHT
SNOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SWING THRU OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL SW
FLOW AHEAD OF THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION COMBINED WITH MODEST
OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY...INCREASING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE...UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG THE TROUGH AND RISING INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL
LEND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TARGET OUR LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES
FOR HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE
GREATEST LIMITATION TO SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE THE RELATIVELY
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN FORM THE SW OVERNIGHT
BEFORE SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. STILL EXPECT AROUND 2 INCHES FOR LOCATIONS TARGETED BY SW
LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WILL
CERTAINLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS OVERNIGHT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW-END ADVISORY SNOWFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL...WSW FLOW LAKE ENHANCEMENT
TONIGHT...MAINLY LATE.

BEEN AN INTERESTING DAY OF LAKE EFFECT (AS THEY OFTEN ARE). IN
CHRONOLOGICAL ORDER...WE HAD AN EARLY MORNING CLASSIC DOMINANT NW
BAND INTO KALKASKA...TO THE LESS-CLASSIC PERSISTENT ENHANCEMENT NEAR
EAST JORDAN THIS MORNING...TO THE SOMEWHAT BIZARRE SHORELINE-PARALLEL
BANDED FEATURES IMPACTING FKS/ESPECIALLY MBL TODAY. SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS NOW NEARING LAKE MI...WILL CROSS LOWER MI EARLY TONIGHT. THIS
WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF SW FLOW. MEANWHILE...THICKER LAYERED
CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY -SN ARE SEEN ADVANCING ACROSS WI...AS A
SHORTWAVE INTERACTS WITH WARM ADVECTION. PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT.

WE ARE SEEING SOMETHING OF A BACK EDGE FOR BETTER LAKE EFFECT
RETURNS MAKING SOME INROADS INTO NW LOWER MI. (BETTER LATE THAN
NEVER.) ANTICIPATE THIS DIMINISHING TREND TO CONTINUE THRU MID
EVENING...AS RIDGE AXIS CROSSES AND PROVIDES A BRIEF PERIOD OF
ANTICYCLONICALLY-CURVED LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...BY LATE THIS
EVENING...MOISTURE WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING ABOVE 850MB FROM THE
WEST. 850MB TEMPS ARE WARMING...BUT ONLY TO AROUND -11C...PLENTY
ENOUGH FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT PROCESSES. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIGHT
INVERSION AT 850MB...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO GET PAST
THAT UP TO 12-15K FT AT LEAST FOR A PERIOD. THIS IS A SOMEWHAT
OMINOUS DEVELOPMENT.

SO HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE WINDS VEER AGAIN AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS FALL TOWARD MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS UNIMPRESSIVE. 2-3 INCH ACCUMS WILL WORK FOR NOW ALONG
THE NW LOWER MI COAST...UP THRU THE STRAITS AND INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN MACKINAC AND SE CHIPPEWA. MUCH LESS THAN THAT
ELSEWHERE.

MIN TEMPS TEENS TO AROUND 20F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

(2/5)FRIDAY...WHILE THINGS LOOK DRY FOR THE MORNING, THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL COLD ENOUGH (<-12C) FOR THE INSTABILITY TO
PRODUCE LAKE EFFECT (WATER TEMPERATURES ARE +3C), SO WILL EXPECT
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ON THE W TO WNW FLOW PATTERN.
THE SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AS THE DRY AIR
STAYS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. HOWEVER,
EARLY IN THE EVENING (AROUND 00Z) THE MOISTURE IN THE 850-700 MB
LAYER BEGINS TO INCREASE TO OVER 80% AS THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SW AND
WITH THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -10C AT THE
WARMEST AROUND 12Z, WILL EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE LAKE ENHANCEMENT
WHICH WOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THE SNOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE SNOW THAT WOULD FALL WOULD PRODUCE LIGHT AMOUNTS
ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE IN NW LOWER, AND LIGHT AMOUNTS ACROSS
ALL OF E UPPER.

(2/6)SATURDAY...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MORNING AS THE CLIPPER
IS MOVING ACROSS N LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ENTERING
LAKE MICHIGAN. DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE GFS AND NAM HAVE THE
MOISTURE FALLING OFF TO LESS THAN 30% IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WHILE
THE ECMWF STILL HAS THE "GOOD" MOISTURE (RH>70%) WITH THE W FLOW
AREAS. SO HAVE LOWERED THE CHANCES A BIT WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE
EVENING LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO N LOWER AND THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND -5C. THIS WOULD SHUT OFF THE LAKE
ENHANCEMENT, AND LEAVE US WITH MINOR AMOUNTS WITH THE ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT.

(2/7)SUNDAY...HOWEVER, NEXT CLIPPER DROPS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT. COUPLED WITH THE 500 MB LOW
THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC LOW, IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT AMOUNTS
WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST AREA. MOST OF N LOWER REMAINS IN
THE "WARM" SECTOR, HOWEVER, SO FOR MOST OF THE AREAS SOUTH OF M-32,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE AMOUNTS WOULD REMAIN IN THE MINOR CATEGORY. THE
COLDER AIR, THAT WOULD SPAWN MORE LES, REMAINS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE
500MB PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS. THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY DEEPENS...AS A LOW SLOWLY DROPS
DOWN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND TAKES ITS TIME MOVING OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE FIELDS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP SNOW CHANCES IN THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN DRUM UP SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT.
BETTER ODDS FOR LAKE SNOW COME WEDNESDAY AS A COLDER REGIME SETS UP
(H8 TEMPS APPROACHING -20C) WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE STILL WIDE OPEN
WATERS. THEN...NOT SURPRISINGLY...GUIDANCE POINTS AT ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRY TO SPIN UP BEFORE THE WEEKS END.

SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GET KNOCKED BACK
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR TUESDAY...WITH WEDNESDAY BEING THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS NOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE STATE. NOT MUCH
WITH THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW SLIPPING ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASE IN CLOUDS/MOISTURE AND WEAK
SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
MAINLY FOCUSED INTO THE TIP OF THE MITT/PLN AREA OVERNIGHT. BUT
WINDS WILL VEER A BIT MORE WESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
SPREAD SOME LAKE SNOW SHOWERS INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.

IMPACT: MVFR TO VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. PLN WILL SEE SOME HEFTIER SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
REDUCTIONS TO VSBYS...AND TVC MAY EVENTUALLY GET SOME LAKE SNOWS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

WINDS: UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 331 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

SW WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSS
LOWER MI LATE TODAY...AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT ARRIVES
TOWARD MORNING. THAT FRONT WILL RESULT IN W TO NW WINDS AGAIN ON
FRIDAY. WINDS/WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MLR
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...JZ


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