000
FXUS63 KAPX 191803
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
203 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT...
PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN A MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIRMASS HEADING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WILL
BRING PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL. VERY SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. SOME CUMULUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE COASTS AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH LAKE BREEZE
FORMATION. EXPECT THIS ARE OF CU TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND PUSH INLAND AS THE LAKE BREEZES BEGIN TO WORK THEIR
WAY INLAND. PEAK MIXING WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...YIELDING A DRY COMFORTABLE AFTERNOON FOR
THE REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TWEAKED TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT TRENDS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND 12Z APX
SOUNDING...SUGGESTING DEW POINTS FOR INTERIOR REGIONS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

NO UPDATES NEEDED. JUST A MINOR INCREASE IN CIRRUS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER. A SUN FILLED...BEAUTIFUL DAY ON TAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

CURRENTLY...VERY QUIET OUT THERE WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A
CORE OF DRY AIR CENTERED OVER NRN MICHIGAN. SKIES ARE BASICALLY
CLEAR AS A BELL WITH JUST SOME THIN PATCHY ROAMING CIRRUS AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN GREAT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...AND TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 30S IN
THE LOWEST LYING/TYPICALLY COLDER COMMUNITIES. MOST AREAS HOWEVER
HAVE REMAINED IN THE 40S. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE SEEN IN THE
MORNING. THE CLOSEST PRECIPITATION WAS IN A SMALL PATCH IN FAR
WESTERN KY. ABSOLUTELY NO PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE NEAR MICHIGAN. A
FEATURE TO BE FOCUSED ON HOWEVER...WAS LOW PRESSURE RUNNING
THROUGH NRN ONTARIO...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NW
ONTARIO AND SRN MANITOBA. NW FLOW ALOFT WAS SENDING SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY DOWN TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT WITHIN THE DRY AIR
MASS...WAS ONLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME ADDED MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS BURIED WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 80-90KT JETLET.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ALL DAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES. MOISTURE WILL BE
SCANT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR SOME ADDED CIRRUS
ACROSS EASTERN UPPER...CLOSER TO AFOREMENTIONED JETLET AND BETTER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. THAT SAID...WE WILL RESIDE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF
THE JET FOR ANY UPPER DIVERGENCE. NO ADVECTIONS OF NOTE...SO
CUMULUS EXTENT WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ONLY DIFFERENCE WILL
BE FOR MORE INLAND AREAS OF NRN LOWER SEEING SOME CU. AS THE DAY
WEARS ON...LAKE BREEZES WILL GOBBLE UP THE CU...AND THE CUMULUS
WILL GATHER MORE INLAND. ALL-IN-ALL A FAIRLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 70S MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO EXIT EAST...WITH FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS FADING AWAY. THE LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO WILL PUSH
INTO QUEBEC AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN...WITH US CLOSER TO THE COL AREA WHERE CONVERGENCE/WIND
WILL BE WEAK. ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS EASTERN
UPPER AND ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY. WHILE MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ALONG
THIS FRONT...THE AIR MASS IT`S RUNNING INTO BEING SO DRY...AND THE
FORCING ALOFT BEING MINIMAL...REALLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO HAPPEN
ALONG THIS FRONT. PLAN VIEW OBS FROM YESTERDAY DID NOT DEPICT ANY
PRECIPITATION...BUT MERE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT IS ENOUGH AT THIS
POINT TO CONTINUE CARRYING A SMALL 20-30% POP FOR THE PARADISE
AREA...CLOSER TO THE FRONT FOR A CHANCE AT SEEING A SHOWER. ALL
BETS ARE BETTER ON NOTHING ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THOUGH. LOWS IN
THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

DESPITE PERSISTENCE OF CURRENT PATTERN TO ARGUE OTHERWISE...ALL
SYSTEMS STILL APPEAR A GO FOR A WARMER (HOW WARM?)...AND POTENTIALLY
VERY ACTIVE...PERIOD OF WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. UPSTREAM PROGRESSION SETS THE ABOVE IN
MOTION...WITH FAR EAST PACIFIC TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WHICH...IN TURN...FORCES WESTERN THERMAL RIDGE EAST INTO
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LAKES REGION. OF COURSE...NOTHING
IN THIS BUSINESS IS THAT SIMPLE (SURE WISH IT WAS) AND PERPETUAL
NORTHEAST CANADA TROUGHING WILL LIKELY HAVE PLENTY TO SAY ON JUST
HOW AMPLIFIED RIDGING CAN BECOME. THROW IN STILL CHILLY GREAT LAKES
WATERS AND CONVECTIVELY COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND ONE
CAN UNDERSTAND THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY STILL WITHIN THE FORECAST.
FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER ON TRYING TO SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE
ABOVE.

CHANGES BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST AS
ITS MID LEVEL LIKENESS BEGINS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WARM...MOIST ADVECTION BEGINS TO RAMP UP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST LAKES
AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TAKES THE
TURN EAST...WITH ONE INCH PLUS PWAT VALUES SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF OUR AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS TO LINK UP WITH SUBTLE WAVE
TRAVERSING REMNANT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...ALL THE WHILE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. DYNAMICS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH MID LEVEL WAVE SHEARING OUT AND LACK OF
GOOD LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPMENT. INSTABILITY SLOW TO RAMP UP GIVEN
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INITIAL LACK OF GOOD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THIS INITIAL STAGE OF WAA...A TREND ALREADY
WELL ESTABLISHED WITH THE GOING FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO RULE OUT
THUNDER THURSDAY...AND DOWNPLAY IT SOME THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MINIMAL
MU CAPES EXPECTED.

ONE CHALLENGING FORECAST TAKING SHAPE FRIDAY...LASTING RIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF CONFLICTING FORCES IN PLAY...WITH STRONG
SURGE OF JUST OFF THE DECK WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION PUSHING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
LAKES...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING THROUGH CANADA ATTEMPTS TO
DRIVE SURFACE FRONT SOUTH INTO THE LOWER LAKES. COOL LAKE WATERS AND
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG ELEVATED WARM FRONT MAY HELP THE
SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
STAGES OF THE WEEKEND. JUST WAY TO MANY UNCERTAINTIES YET TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC WITH THE FORECAST. PATTERN DOES LOOK RATHER RIPE FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT...A PATTERN THAT THEORETICALLY SHOULD BOW NORTH WITH
TIME AS WARM AIR DOES THE SAME. STRONG EVIDENCE FOR A VERY
PRONOUNCED EML PUNCHING INTO THE WESTERN LAKES/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FRIDAY...SOME OF WHICH EVENTUALLY PINWHEELS UP THROUGH OUR
AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. EARLY PROGS SUGGEST MODERATE TO
EXTREME MU CAPES JUST UPSTREAM...WITH SOME RIDICULOUS VALUES
EXCEEDING 5K J/KG BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
WISCONSIN AND INTO MINNESOTA! THIS MAY BE A TOUCH OVERDONE...WITH
MODELS LIKELY OVERAMBITIOUS DRIVING 75+ DEGREE DEWPOINTS INTO THAT
SAME AREA. NO MATTER...AS VARIOUS SHORTWAVES PIVOTING ATOP EASTWARD
ADVANCING RIDGING AND ATTENDANT ENHANCEMENT OF LOW LEVEL JET WORKING
ON THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO KICK OF SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AS ALWAYS...SOURCE REGION FOR
INITIATION LOOKS TO REMAIN UPSTREAM...WITH CONVECTION RIDING ALONG
LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTAL FEATURES INTO OUR AREA. IMPOSSIBLE TO GET
ANY ACCURATE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS WAVES JUST YET. WILL
SAY...HOWEVER...THAT BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEM HAD ONE WAVE AND
WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGING BUILDING
NORTHEAST WITH TIME LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SOME
POSSIBILITY BETTER ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY SHUNT NORTH AS CAP DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD. EXTREME UPSTREAM INSTABILITY AND ENHANCEMENT OF WIND
PROFILES WITH VARIOUS WAVES DEFINITELY RAISES CONCERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. EXPERIMENTAL DAY 4-8 SPC CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION ALREADY
TALKING THIS CONCERN UP...ALTHOUGH LINGERING UNCERTAINTY PREVENTS A
SPECIFIC INCLUSION IN THEIR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. DEFINITELY SOMETHING
TO MONITOR IN THE COMING DAYS.

OF COURSE...TEMPERATURES THROUGH ALL OF THIS HIGHLY PREDICATED BY
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. THAT SAID...STARTING TO FEEL REAL COMFORTABLE
THAT HIGHS WILL PUSH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY. IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD...WARMEST WEATHER LOOKS
TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...WHEN PERHAPS A LOCATION OR TWO MAY
MAKE A RUN AT 90. ADD IN INCREASING HUMIDITY AND WARM OVERNIGHT
LOWS...AND THINGS MAY BECOME A TOUCH UNCOMFORTABLE FOR SOME
(INCLUDING THIS FORECASTER).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW FOR ALL TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH LAKE BREEZES. WINDS WILL BECOME
VERY LIGHT OR CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL
RESULT IN LAKE BREEZES TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EAST
TONIGHT WITH SW WINDS INCREASING A BIT THROUGH FRIDAY...AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGH STABILITY WILL
PREVENT ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/GUSTS. NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NS
SYNOPSIS...MB
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MB
AVIATION...NS
MARINE...SD