Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 020734
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
334 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...WHILE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM MAY BRING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WITH QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT
BEGINS ITS APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND
ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF WINDY AND WARM
WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK...WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...MUCH MORE TAME WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH REALLY. MAYBE A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO FROM SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS NORTHERN MICHIGAN IN A TRANSITION TO A
MUCH QUIETER WEATHER REGIME...AS OUR TROUBLESOME STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RESPONSIBLE FOR MONDAY`S ACTIVE WEATHER HAS LIFTED INTO QUEBEC...
WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT WORKING THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN AS OF
06Z. IN THE WAKE OF THESE FEATURES...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING RESIDES
OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/NORTHERN PLAINS...FEATURING ANOTHER
WEAKER SHORTWAVE OR TWO EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW...TIED TO A SMATTERING
OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA.

THAT FEATURE WILL BE OF MOST INTEREST FOR US FROM EARLY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING AS IT DELIVERS NOTABLE COOLING IN THE 600-500MB
LAYER...MAINLY AFTER 19Z. THAT IN TURN WILL HELP STEEPEN LOWER LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AS HIGH AS 7.5C/KM ABOVE 850MB. WORKING IN TANDEM WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND INLAND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...CAN FORESEE
LOCALIZED STRONGER CONVERGENCE RESIDING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN U.P.
AS WELL AS INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. OVERALL
INSTABILITY DOESN`T LOOK TO BE ANYTHING TERRIBLY GREAT...WITH MAYBE
UP TO 500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER THE EASTERN U.P. WHERE CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED...WHILE DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING INTO A NOTABLY DRIER AIRMASS
ALOFT LIKELY LOWERS DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER BACK THROUGH
THE MID (LOWER?) 50S. BASED ON THE EXPECTED SETUP AND ARRIVAL OF
COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FEEL COMPELLED TO CONTINUE WITH
LOWER POPS...STEERING THINGS MORE TOWARD ISOLATED/SCATTERED WORDING
AS THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LITTLE DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT. THUNDER
POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY LOW BUT UPSTREAM HISTORY THE PAST 18-24 HOURS
DOES INDICATE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO ISN`T TOTALLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ARRIVAL OF BROAD LOW LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD BRING AN END TO LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH A DRY OVERNIGHT EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MAINTAIN
ENOUGH OF A GRADIENT TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DECOUPLING OF THE
FLOW...WHILE PERHAPS SOME VESTIGES OF LOWER OR MID CLOUDS ROLL
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THAT COMBINATION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
OFFSET WHAT COULD BE A MUCH COOLER NIGHT...WITH LOWS JUST A SHADE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE MID OR UPPER
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...EYES REMAIN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FOR STORMS...

IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT
DETAILS STILL TBD...BUT THERE IS AN EXPECTATION FOR A LOT OF WIND
AND FORCING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING STILL TO
LIKELY BE AN ISSUE...BUT A CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/EVOLUTION

A VERY FAST/PROGRESSIVE FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SLOWLY RISING
HEIGHTS WED-THU...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. THEN...THE TREND IS MOVING TOWARD A RETURN TO MORE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NE CONUS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: CHANCES/LOCATION FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THEN...HOW MUCH STRATUS
IS AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON...DO WE HEAT UP...IN WHICH CASE IT;LL
BE BREEZY AND WARM. THEN...THE EVOLUTION OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SLATED TO SLIP OVERHEAD LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
ALONG WITH THAT...CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN A STRONG WIND AND
STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT. KEY HERE: WILL WE DEVELOP THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY:

SHALLOW RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN DRYING LOW LEVELS AND WARMING LOW TO MID LEVELS. THIS
BRING MORE STABLE CONDITIONS...HOSTILE TO ANY SORT OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCE. RELATIVE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SE OF NRN MICHIGAN WILL BRING
A WARMER DAY WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:

SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXPECTATION OF THE
WEATHER OVER THIS TIME FRAME. PAC NW SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO ONTARIO
WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT DEEPENING AND SHIFTING ALSO INTO ONTARIO. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY
DAYBREAK AND THEN THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN THURSDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO
1.5" INTO THURSDAY MORNING...30KT LLJ DIRECTED AT US...STEEPER LAPSE
RATES TO 6.5 C/KM ARRIVING..WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG DEVELOPING.
WHILE THE BETTER INGREDIENTS WILL BE WEST OF US...SEEING DECAYING
NOCTURNAL MCS/STORMS TRICKLING INTO WESTERN AREAS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOW FAR EAST POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION GETS IS ONE ISSUE.
RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE THE NW HALF OF THE CWA COULD BE
AFFECTED...WHILE THERE IS OUR OMNIPRESENT CONCERN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCING LOW LEVEL STRATUS FOR
THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH RESULTS IN PROBLEMS FOR SEEING SUNSHINE AND
WARMING INTO THE DAY. NOTHING DIFFERENT HERE. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY AND GOTTA BELIEVE WITH THE SUN
ANGLE...THE DEVELOPMENT OF WARM...HUMID AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
THE LIKELY RESULT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR STORMS SEEMS
LESS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH...ASSUMING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND POTENTIAL
MORNING CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE LIFT WILL START
TO MAXIMIZE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN DOWN
THROUGH WISCONSIN. ALSO...WIND FIELDS WILL REALLY STRENGTHEN WITH A
70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND A 45KT H8 LLJ.
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE THERE...AND THEN LAY OVER INTO
EASTERN UPPER...POSSIBLY FAR NRN LOWER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FORCING STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTINUE CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING AND
EVEN OVERNIGHT THROUGH ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
WILL REVOLVE PRIMARILY AROUND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL
UNDERGO IT`S TYPICAL DECLINE AFTER SUNSET...SO TAPPING ALL THAT WIND
MAY PROVE TO BE MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE
TO KEEP ALL EYES FOCUSED ON THE TIMING...IF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
CAN ARRIVE EARLIER...WE ARE LOOKING AT A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS. LIKELY SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS AROUND AHEAD AND ALONG THE SFC
FRONT WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING...THEN DROP SE
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH DRIER AIR SETTLING IN. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO MIDDLE 80S A GOOD BET WITH SUN BREAKING OUT THURSDAY AND GUSTY SW
WINDS 20MPH...MAYBE AS HIGH AS 25 MPH. HIGHS FRIDAY DIPPING BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S NORTH AND DEPENDING ON FRONTAL POSITION...AS
WARM AS THE LOWER 80S NEARER THE SAGINAW BAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY:

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MAIN CHANNEL OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
LIFTING NORTH. THIS DOES NOT DRIVE ANY FURTHER SHORTWAVE OUR
WAY...WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN/LINGERS OVER THIS TIME
PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE UPPER HALF OF
THE 60S AND LOWER HALF OF THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH
THE REGION UP UNTIL SUNRISE. A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY
DEVELOP AROUND MBL AND PLN...AND HONESTLY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...AS
WINDS GO LIGHT BUT THE GROUND REMAINS MOIST. AN APPROACHING WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AROUND APN. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS UP TO 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...DIMINISHING CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 332 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRUSHES THROUGH THE LAKES. WESTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT...HOLDING FROM THAT DIRECTION
INTO WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM
FRONT ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY TOWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHTER
WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...LAWRENCE
MARINE...LAWRENCE





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