Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231929

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
329 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening and overnight)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Short wave has reached far Western Upper Michigan this afternoon...
with the surface reflection moving out of Wisconsin and into Lake
Michigan. Rain showers have significantly increased in both areal
coverage and intensity in response to increasing upper level
divergence and low level convergence in the vcnty of deeper moisture
associated with the wave. Mid level clouds/radar returns have
steadily increased across Eastern Upper Michigan throughout the
day...and some light rain is finally reaching the ground around
ERY and CIU. Otherwise...our CWA remains largely dry at
attm...with temps now in the mid 50s to around 60 degrees thanks
to weak WAA ahead of the wave.

Increasing POPs from NW to SE will be the rule as we head thru the
rest of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Upper level wave
will slide thru the rest of Upper Michigan late this afternoon and
thru Lower Michigan this the surface low tracks thru
Southern Lower Michigan. Some lake enhancement is expected thru this
evening as marginal delta t`s hold around 11 C. A more pure lake
effect rain shower scenario will set up late tonight into Monday as
low level CAA increases over-lake instability in the wake of the
short wave and surface low. At this point...temps should remain warm
enough for precip to remain all liquid thru the night and on Monday.

With CAA commencing this evening...overnight lows will cool into the
upper 30s and lower 40s with diurnal cooling and CAA tempered by the
maintenance of BKN/OVC low CIGS. High temps on Monday will only warm
into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Sunday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

High Impact Weather: Rain moving into the region on Wednesday,
possibly freezing?

(10/25)Monday night...rain showers off of Lakes Superior and
Michigan will be the main concern initially, with the most likely
rain in E Upper with the delta Ts around 20c from the 850 mb
temperatures around -5c and the water temperatures around 16c in N
Lake Michigan, and around 13c in Lake Superior. While the winds are
good through most of the night, the whole system is moving east,
which is actually doing a net warm advection at 850 mb winds turning
more north and the RH falling to around 30%. So will be expecting
the rain to begin to taper off by the morning.

(10/26)Tuesday...The high builds into the region moves through by
the afternoon, this will keep us in a relatively dry easterly flow
through the night as well.

To set up the Wednesday forecast, the sfc low associated with the
strong 500 mb shortwave moving from the N Plains and into the Upper
Great Lakes is being held off from spreading the moisture in N Lower
through the night from the dry easterly flow as the baroclinic zone
begins to sharpen up in the mid-Mississippi Valley.

(10/27)Wednesday...Models are insisting that the rain will hold off
until after 15z in the sw counties as the 700-500 mb rh max and the
850 mb rh coincide with the warm advection at the sfc and 850 mb.
Looks like the rain will just be in the area south and west of a
line from FKS to CAD by 18z. Because the rain doesn`t start until
late, don`t think that the rain starts as anything freezing as the
sfc temperatures should be above freezing by 15z. Models are even
slower at spreading this rain over the region from the dry easterly
flow undercutting the moisture looking at the soundings. So will
have E Upper and most of NE Lower keeping out of the rain for the


Primary concern for the extended period remains the Wednesday night
through Thursday system. Still uncertainty with exact timing and
track of the system. A more southerly track looks to be the most
likely, which would keep heavier rains south of us. But it is close
enough that a slight northward shift could bring the heavier precip
to us. Timing will also be an issue with p-type concerns, generally
over E.U.P. and higher elevation areas as temperatures could support
some mix of snow at the onset, with a switch to all liquid by the
afternoon. There are other chances for precip through the period
with another synoptic system and some lake effect possibilities.



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Low VFR/MVFR cigs will gradually develop from NW to SE across
Northern Lower Michigan this afternoon and tonight as a potent
short wave and surface response slides thru Michigan. Scattered
rain showers will develop in response to increasing lift and
moisture associated with this wave. Modest over-lake instability
will lend some support to precip production. Precipitation will
evolve into a more pure lake effect rain shower scenario later
tonight into Monday thanks to CAA in the wake of the departing
wave. Light winds this afternoon will shift to the NW later this
afternoon and evening and will begin to strengthen to around 10
kts behind the wave...with higher gusts expected by Monday


Issued at 329 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Winds and waves will strengthen to SCA criteria this evening and
will remain so thru Monday as NW winds increase in the wake of a
short wave and surface response sliding thru Michigan. Scattered
rain showers will increase in areal coverage late this afternoon and
evening as the wave moves thru our region. Precip will evolve into a
more pure lake effect nature overnight and into Monday thanks to CAA
and NW winds in the wake of the wave and surface low.




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