Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 221036
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
636 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...SUNNY BUT COOLER TODAY/MORE FROSTY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON (PRIMARILY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY).  MORE FROST/
FREEZE ISSUES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH CHANNEL NORTHWEST
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.  COOLER/DRIER AIR SPILLING INTO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM
NORTHWEST ONTARIO HELPING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BAND OF
MID CLOUDS AND SOME RADAR RETURNS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...WITH MICHIGAN JUST ON THE WEST EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER
THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED OVER QUEBEC.  WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO
KICK IN LATE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW BY SATURDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING AND MORE FROST POTENTIAL.

TODAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS DEALING WITH MARGINALLY ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER...AS WINDS MAY BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE DAY THOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE DEW POINTS AT THAT TIME DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MOSTLY 50S BUT SOME UPPER 40S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR)...BUT THANKS TO THE EXPECTED TANKING OF DEW POINTS
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHEAST LOWER.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL
ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO KICK IN OVERNIGHT.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE
AND AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECT ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...SO MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS NORTH
OF THE UPPER PENINSULA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXCEPT
FOR SOME LATE CLOUDS INTO EASTERN UPPER...CLEAR SKIES AND (MOSTLY)
CALM WINDS EXPECTED (THOUGH THE SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PICK UP
TOWARD DAYBREAK).  THIS BRINGS LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING
INTO FOCUS...AND WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE 50S WON`T HAVE
FAR TO GO FOR FROST/FREEZE ISSUES WITH LOWS LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE
20S ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  SO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY...WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER LATER INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS QUITE UNLIKELY.

REALLY A PRETTY CLASSIC WEATHER PATTERN FOR LATE MAY AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS RESULTANT
BRIEF BLASTS OF COLDER AIR DEPARTS AND GIVES WAY TO BROADENING
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW LATER SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF RATHER ROBUST UPPER
TROUGHING EMERGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN SUCH A
PATTERN...WE OFTEN FIND OURSELVES WITH SOME QUICK-CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND THIS TIME WILL BE NO DIFFERENT AS WE TRANSITION
FROM A CHILLY START TO SATURDAY INTO A WARMER BUT DRY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS TOWARD THE EARLY WORK WEEK.
THANKFULLY FOR A PARCHED NORTHERN MICHIGAN LANDSCAPE OF LATE...THE
UPCOMING PATTERN DOES OFFER SOME DECENT RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH OF
COURSE EXACT TIMING OF THOSE REMAINS A CHALLENGE.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SATURDAY LOOKING RATHER QUIET FROM A SENSIBLE
WEATHER PERSPECTIVE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE CLOUD
COVER AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ALL
WHILE A TONGUE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WRAPPING TO OUR NORTH
PROBABLY SETS OFF A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS (THUNDER?) UP INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...MAYBE JUST MAYBE CLIPPING AREAS NEAR THE SOO WITH
A SPRINKLE (DOUBT IT THOUGH). INSTEAD...WE SHOULD FIND OURSELVES IN
A MODERATELY MIXED ENVIRONMENT...WITH ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
AND ONGOING DRY SOILS PROMOTING ANOTHER DAY OF LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS
NEARING CRITICAL LEVELS. THROW IN A WARMER THERMAL REGIME WITH A
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO SNEAK INTO WARMER-THAN-EXPECTED
TERRITORY (THANKS DRY SOIL) WITH MIXING AND SOME WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 20-25 KNOTS...AND THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE A PERIOD OF
NEAR-RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID THE TEMP RESPONSE. BASED ON RECENT HISTORY
OF DRYNESS AND SOME FIRES...WILL ADD A MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO THE USUAL PRODUCTS.

STARTING TO SEE AN UPWARD TICK IN PRECIP POTENTIAL AMONG GUIDANCE
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS MORE ROBUST RETURN FLOW ALOFT GETS
UNDERWAY...BUT HAVE TO SAY AT THE MOMENT I REMAIN UNIMPRESSED GIVEN
OUR DRY AIR ISSUES AND RECENT HISTORY. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS
SORT OF AN INTERESTING COLD SIDE FRONTOLYSIS/WARM SIDE FRONTOGENESIS
COUPLET THAT IS PEGGED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WHICH OF
COURSE WOULD REALLY PUT THE "SQUEEZE PLAY" ON THE ATMOSPHERE AND
PERHAPS REALLY TRY ITS BEST TO WRING OUT A LITTLE BIT OF RAINFALL.
NOT READY TO BITE JUST YET...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.

MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP UP INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT ARE DYNAMICALLY
LIFTED NORTHWARD RATHER RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING
STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THIS BASIC IDEA HAS BEEN WELL MODELED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN DECENT RAIN
CHANCES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AIDING THAT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE THE GULF
TAP WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND PEGGED STRONG
LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHWARD RETREATING ELEVATED
WARM FRONT. THUNDER THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE SIMPLY GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THETA-E ADVECTION...THOUGH LAPSE RATES COULD BE
BETTER.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FINALLY LOOKING MORE LIKE LATE MAY SHOULD WITH OVERALL MILDER AND
MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS STICKING AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK...
COURTESY OF BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW HANGING TIGHT INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PROBABLY THE BEST POTENTIAL ON
MONDAY AS WE SEE A WARM FRONT STILL DRAPED SOMEWHERE NEARBY (LIKELY
STALLED NEAR THE STRAITS PER CLIMO). GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY...CAN`T RULE OUT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THE
LACK OF ANY MAJOR TRIGGER. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST SHOT WILL COME
LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...
BUT AT THE MOMENT...OVERALL SUPPORT NOT LOOKING TOO GREAT. STILL...
WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION...WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR A STRETCH AS DAILY HIGHS PUSH INTO THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS HANG IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: WEAKENING GRADIENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS DOMINATING NEARSHORE WINDS TODAY.
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HEADLINE
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK:  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY ON LAKE MICHIGAN
AND INTO THE ST. MARY`S RIVER...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ016-017-019-
     021-022-026>028-032>034.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ018-020-
     023>025-029>031-035-036-041-042.

LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB



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