Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 010500
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
100 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

STRATUS/FOG DECK OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON HAS SPREAD ACROSS
DRUMMOND ISLAND/MANITOULIN ISLAND AND FAR SOUTHEAST CHIPPEWA
COUNTY...WITH ADDITIONAL STRATUS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
CHIPPEWA AND MACKINAC COUNTIES. WESTERN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK
HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE...VERY SLOWLY
BUILDING WEST INTO THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL FLOW. ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER FOG HAS BEEN PATCHY AND CONFINED TO THE USUAL QUICK COOLING
LOCALES (PLN/MBL/CAD/ACB). HAVE BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER ACROSS
EASTERN UPPER/STRAITS REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING GIVEN
CURRENT TRENDS...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN LOWER AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS (PERSISTENT SMOKE LAYER
ALOFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AS IT IS TRANSPARENT TO OUTGOING LONG
WAVE RADIATION).

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE FOG WATCH IS UNDERWAY THIS EVENING...LEFTOVER STRATUS DECK
OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON AND WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY EXPECTED TO
EXPAND ACROSS EASTERN UPPER AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S (THOUGH CLOSER TO 62 ALONG
GLR/GOV/HTL CORRIDOR)...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG SHOULD GET
GOING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MITT AND ALONG
THE NORTHEAST LOWER SHORELINE COUNTIES...AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO POKE INTO MI FROM THE SOUTH. SW FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUE TO BRING LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION.
OUR EARLY-MORNING STRATUS HAS LARGELY MIXED OUT ACROSS NORTHERN
LOWER...AND IS FINALLY IN THE PROCESS OF DOING SO IN EASTERN
UPPER. WE ARE STRONGLY CAPPED TO CONVECTION...WITH 810MB TEMPS OF
18C PER THE 12Z APX SOUNDING. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR TONIGHT...YET
AGAIN...IS FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL.

WE ARE CERTAINLY MOIST ENOUGH DOWNSTAIRS. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE
IN THE LOW/MID 60S. STILL A WINDOW FOR US TO MIX SOME OF THAT
MOISTURE OUT IN THE INTERIOR OF NORTHERN LOWER (900MB DEW PT
DEPRESSIONS WERE NEAR 15C)...BUT NO SIGN OF THAT JUST YET. ALSO
NOTE THAT UPSTREAM OVER WI...THE MIXING OUT PROCESS TOOK LONGER
THAN IT DID HERE. THE MARINE LAYER FROM LAKE MI...WHICH HELPED
MAINTAIN STRATUS TODAY OVER EASTERN UPPER...WILL AID IN GETTING
FOG/STRATUS STARTED TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE NORTHERN MI AGAIN SEEING
STRATUS/FOG FORM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z/2AM. HAVE THUS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MIN TEMPS NEAR 60F TO THE MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ANOTHER MORNING OR TWO WITH SOME
DENSE FOG LOOKING LIKELY...WHILE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ALSO EXIST ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

AHHH YES...GOOD OLD NORTHERN MICHIGAN STRATUS. WE HAVE MISSED YOU
FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...BUT HERE YOU ARE AGAIN...TRYING TO SPOIL AN
OTHERWISE REALLY NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. WE`LL SEE WHO
GETS THE UPPER HAND WITH TIME (THE CLOUDS OR THE WARMTH)...BUT
STRATUS/FOG ISSUES WILL REMAIN A BIG FORECAST CONCERN RIGHT ON INTO
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...IF NOT BEYOND. AS MUCH DISCUSSED THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN IS A CLASSIC ONE FOR SOME
NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE SUMMERTIME HEAT...AS UPPER TROUGHING
DOMINATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA...SENDING
HEIGHTS RISING CONSIDERABLY INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
HOWEVER...AS IS VERY TYPICAL IN THIS TYPE OF SETUP...THERE CONTINUES
TO BE HINTS OF A WEAKER SHORTWAVE OR TWO RIDING UP AND OVER THAT
RIDGE AXIS IN OUR DIRECTION...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST THE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SPURTS OF CONVECTION RIDING THE RIDGE TOP.

MORE ON THAT CONVECTIVE STUFF BELOW...BUT FIRST THINGS FIRST...LET`S
DEAL WITH THE STRATUS/FOG ISSUE. IT`S PRETTY SIMPLE TO SEE WE AREN`T
IN THE HEART OF SUMMER ANYMORE...WITH CLOUD TRENDS TODAY REALLY
TELLING THE STORY AS SUNSHINE HAS STRUGGLED MIGHTILY TO WIN OUT.
HAVE A SUSPICION WE WILL BE LOOKING AT THE SAME INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVERTOPPED BY A WEDGE OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE/LIGHT WINDS. AS USUAL...NOT
EXACTLY SURE JUST HOW WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL BE...BUT IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD...THEY WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA TUCKED
BENEATH A QUITE SHARP INVERSION. BASED ON HISTORY...THESE WILL OF
COURSE SLOW THE TEMPERATURE CURVE...BUT STILL DO SUSPECT WE WILL
SQUEEZE OUT SOME VERY LATE DAY HIGHS INTO THE 80S...THOUGH PERHAPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OF LATE.
SIMPLY BASED ON THE NATURE OF STRATUS...NOT ENTIRELY SURE JUST HOW
MANY DAYS WE WILL DEAL WITH THIS MESS EITHER...BUT A GUT FEELING
SAYS IT WILL BE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAKISH COOL FRONT HELPS TO SCOUR OUT THE MOISTURE SOURCE.

IN ADDITION TO CLOUD ISSUES...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME SNEAKY
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL A COUPLE OF TIMES DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
FIRST UP IS THE APPROACH OF THAT ABOVE-MENTIONED WEAKER COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT STRONGER WITH THE FORCING
SHORTWAVE (THOUGH NOT STRONG BY ANY MEANS)...WITH SOME PRETTY GOOD
HINTS THAT LATER DAY CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL TAKE OFF ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE WESTERN U.P. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...AND
IN AN AXIS OF MODEST INSTABILITY. BETTER SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION AND MAINTENANCE IS PROGGED JUST ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON THE SOUTHERN TAIL OF STRONGER JET ENERGY RIDING UP
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. PER PATTERN RECOGNITION...CAN FORESEE ANY
UPSTREAM CONVECTION PERHAPS STAYING A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED AS IT
TRACKS EAST...CLIPPING AT LEAST PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER THROUGH THE
NIGHT. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOMETHING DRIFTING A LITTLE MORE
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN LOWER EITHER...OR EVEN A STORM OR TWO BUBBLING
UP OVER THE LAKE MICHIGAN COOL DOME GIVEN AN AMBIENT MOIST AND
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THINK THE COVERAGE
WOULD BE TOO LOW TO MAKE ANY MENTION JUST YET.

THEREAFTER...STILL LOOKING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS BUBBLING UP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA. THE BETTER SHOT ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE FROM THE
INTERIOR HIGHLANDS OVER INTO NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE ONSHORE TURNING
OF THE FLOW AND INLAND THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL FAVOR THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE. BY THURSDAY...THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD SHIFT A
BIT WESTWARD AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING FROM EASTERN CANADA POKES DOWN
INTO THE AREA...WITH A BIT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
BACKGROUND SUB-900MB FLOW SUPPORTING BETTER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE US-
131 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION TO THESE CHANCES...IT HONESTLY IS HARD TO
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM AT JUST ABOUT ANY
POINT...WITH ANY WEAK RIPPLE IN THE FLOW DRIFTING OVERHEAD. WITH
THAT SAID...THOSE CHANCES ARE JUST TOO LOW AND UNCERTAIN TO DIRECTLY
MENTION FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THINKING WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS. RIDGING SETUP OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOME HOT AND HUMID DAYS TO START SEPTEMBER.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
WARM...MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. MORE WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH...WHICH RIGHT NOW IS NOT
LENDING ITSELF TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE TIME OF ARRIVAL. SOME OF THIS
MODEL DIVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HANDLING OF A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE COMING OUT OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND WHETHER
IT ELONGATES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OR GETS A BIT
STRONGER AND FLATTENS THE RIDGE OUT A BIT. EITHER WAY...GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFFECTING LABOR DAY ACTIVITIES...CERTAINLY WORTH
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL HOLD OVER NRN LWR MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING...RESULTING IN MAINLY IFR/SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT
OUR TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AS
LOW LEVEL MIXING COMMENCES WITH DIURNAL HEATING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE AREAS OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SW AOB 10 KTS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO OUR SE THRU THE FORECAST...PROVIDING
FOR RELATIVELY LIGHT SW-ERLY WINDS. WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THRU AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THOSE
WINDS GET A LITTLE STRONGER AFTER THAT...AND WAVES COULD APPROACH
4 FT ON NORTHERN LAKE MI WITH THE LONG SW FETCH. SO SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ANNOYANCE.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPB
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...ALM
AVIATION...MLR
MARINE...JAZ


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