Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 140345
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1145 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

THE WEAK SURFACE FEATURE WHICH SWEPT OVER THE GREAT LAKES EARLIER...
WILL EXIT EAST INTO QUEBEC THIS EVENING. THIS PATTERN WILL GENERATE
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE COOL WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

LAST NIGHTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. EARLIER LAKE
RAIN SHOWERS OVER NW LOWER MICHIGAN HAVE SPREAD OUT EAST/BECOME
CELLULAR AND SPOTTY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAVE HELD ON A
LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST (BIG SURPRISE).

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER WILL SLIDE IN OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN. COMBINED WITH BACKING AND WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW...
MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS
INTERIOR AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN WHILE REMAINING LAKE CLOUDS BECOME
FOCUSED ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE UP INTO THE STRAITS AND
PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. OF COURSE THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THE 30S AND FROST POSSIBILITIES. STILL A
FEW NEGATIVES TO CONSIDER FOR WIDESPREAD FROST...RELATIVELY MOIST
AND WARM SOIL CONDITIONS AND THE PROSPECTS FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. BUT GIVEN THE GOOD POTENTIAL FOR FROST (AND EVEN
SPOTTY FREEZING TEMPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS)...WILL HOIST A FROST
ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A COUPLE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
FROSTY MORNINGS...PERHAPS MONDAY NIGHT BUT MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

PATTERN SUMMARY: WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET IN THE PATTERN
DEPARTMENT...AS BROAD UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK. THAT FEATURE COMES COURTESY OF UPSTREAM RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO EASTERN ALASKA...WHICH ITSELF IS A
CONSEQUENCE OF A VERY SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE
ALEUTIANS ISLANDS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME HINT THAT THAT FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD JAUNT THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS...HELPING
BUNT THE PACIFIC RIDGE FURTHER INLAND WITH TIME AND THUS HELPING
DISLODGE THE CORE OF DEEPEST TROUGHING/COOLNESS FROM OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS SOMETIME TOWARD LATE WEEK OR JUST BEYOND.

A LOOK AT THE FORECAST DETAILS:

SUNDAY-MONDAY: NEXT IN A STRING OF SHORTWAVES CURRENTLY SITTING OVER
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS WILL WORK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...AS YET
ANOTHER WAVE OVER ALBERTA SHARPENS UP AND DROPS THROUGH THE LOWER
LAKES ON MONDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL ACT TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN SOMETIME ON MONDAY AND ULTIMATE REINFORCE
OUR COOL WEATHER PATTERN HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. NOT REALLY ALL THAT
ENTHUSED ABOUT WIDESPREAD PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH EITHER OF THESE
WAVES...WITH QUITE LIMITED MOISTURE UP THIS WAY. HOWEVER...CAN
FORESEE A BIT OF A LAKE ENHANCED RESPONSE TO THE LEAD WAVE AND
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPING ITSELF IN LATER SUNDAY...AS THE LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS REMAINS PLENTY COOL TO DELIVER MARGINAL MOISTURE FLUX
OFF LAKE MICHIGAN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS ON SUNDAY REMAIN TRICKY
AS THE SETUP OF DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BUT STILL ENOUGH
OVER-LAKE INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR AN INLAND-EXPANDING STRATUS DECK
THAT MAY WELL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO OVERCOME (IF THAT EVER EVEN
HAPPENS). AS SUCH...FEEL COMPELLED TO LOWER HIGHS BY SEVERAL DEGREES
ACROSS THE BOARD.

WHATEVER FIRES OFF IN THAT SETUP SHOULD FADE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT EDGES CLOSER BUT WE LOSE OUR BETTER OVER-WATER
INSTABILITY...WITH ALL EYES FOCUSING ON THE WAVE DROPPING THROUGH
THE LOWER LAKES. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO TIGHTEN UP A FAIRLY HEALTHY
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...WITH PRECIP CHANCES PERHAPS
JUST SCRAPING THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARD SAGINAW BAY. AREAS
FARTHER NORTH WILL RESIDE ON THE DOWNWARD BRANCH OF THE FGEN
CIRCULATION AND BENEATH THE MAIN JET CORE...IMPLYING A LIMITED
PRECIP THREAT WITH THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT: A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BRIEFLY WORKS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATER TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
EVENING. WHAT EARLIER LOOKED LIKE A DECENT SETUP FOR FROST MONDAY
NIGHT DOESN`T APPEAR AS GREAT AS WE MAINTAIN A BIT OF A BETTER
GRADIENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF THAT FRONT DRIFTING SOUTH
THROUGH ONTARIO. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS LOOKS CHILLY
ENOUGH TO PERHAPS DELIVER SOME PESKY LAKE MICHIGAN CLOUD ISSUES WITH
WESTERLY FLOW. CERTAINLY THERE SHOULD BE SPOTS DOWN IN THE 30S...BUT
DO NO BELIEVE WIDESPREAD FROST IS A HUGE THREAT. AS FOR PRECIP WITH
THE FRONT...NOT REALLY THRILLED GIVEN VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND LACK
OF UPPER FORCING. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW ROGUE SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES WITH THE FRONT...BUT AN INCLUSION INTO THE FORECAST
DOESN`T SEEM WARRANTED WITH SUCH A LOW PROBABILITY/COVERAGE SETUP.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO INITIALLY WILL
GRADUALLY WORK THROUGH NEW ENGLAND BY LATE WEEK...HEAVILY
INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER AS UPPER TROUGHING SLOWLY LIFTS OUT AND
WARMER AIR EXPANDS FROM THE PLAINS BACK TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AS
IS TYPICAL IN THESE SETUPS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE WARMUP WILL LIKELY
BE A DAY OR TWO SLOWER THAN ARRIVING UPPER LEVEL WARMTH...BUT AN
OVERALL UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS APPEARS LIKELY. STILL CLOSELY WATCHING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A POTENTIAL FROSTY ONE...AND THE SETUP LOOKS MUCH
BETTER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH A SPRAWLING 1030MB HIGH PASSING JUST
TO OUR NORTH. OF COURSE...RECYCLING OF COOLER AIR DOWN LOW IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW DOES GIVE ONE PAUSE AS THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY
THERE FOR SNEAK LAKE HURON STRATUS TO SPOIL OTHERWISE GOOD
CONDITIONS FOR A COLD NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE INCOMING AIRMASS LOOKS
VERY DRY AND SUSPECT MANY SPOTS WILL MAKE A RUN THROUGH THE LOW
30S...WITH SOME OF THE USUAL COLD SPOTS LIKELY DOWN INTO THE 20S. IN
FACT...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE ARE ALREADY PEGGING
OUR "ICE BOX LOCALES" DOWN IN THE UPPER 20S. THEREAFTER...JUST SOME
BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH HIGHS WARMING BACK THROUGH THE
60S...AND MAYBE SOME LOWER 70S BY SATURDAY...WITH NIGHTS COMFORTABLE
AND SEASONABLY COOL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

SCT/BKN VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR
CIGS ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF A NRN
STREAM WAVE POISED TO CLIP NRN MICHIGAN SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECT ANY
PRECIP FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z MONDAY FOR
NRN LWR MICHIGAN...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
FOR NOW. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW AOB 10 KTS
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS WAVE.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

GUSTIER N/NW WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 KNOTS. SW FLOW INCREASES AGAIN FOR SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED ON LAKE MICHIGAN FOR SUNDAY. WINDS SHIFT MORE WESTERLY AND
DIMINISH A BIT ON MONDAY.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ022>024-027>030-
     032>036-041-042.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SR
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...ADAM






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