Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FXUS63 KAPX 060900
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
400 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

...BREEZY TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS/SOME SNOW AND FLURRIES
TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY LEAD TO
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW ISSUES INTO WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY ALONG US-2
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
1038MB HIGH CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS...WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH DOWN
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS STATES WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
MANITOBA/NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
OCCURRING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
UPPER LAKES REGION...WITHIN A PRETTY DRY AIR MASS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD (LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
LESS THAN 0.10 INCH).  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF
"ATTACHED" VORTICITY CENTERS...ONE OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE
OTHER OVER IOWA.  THE FORMER FEATURE HELPING DRIVE AN AREA OF CLOUD
COVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO...MOSTLY MID CLOUD AS LOW LAYERS ARE DRY PER
00Z INL/YPL SOUNDINGS.  CLOSER TO HOME SKIES ARE CLEAR IN MANY
AREAS...WITH SOME PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS INTO NORTHWEST LOWER OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN.

UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL CROSS MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A MID LEVEL (700MB) WAVE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING.  ANOTHER JET STREAM DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL PULL A SURFACE LOW SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH IT ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA AND TOWARD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY SATURDAY MORNING.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH VARIOUS SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS TODAY.

TODAY...LAKE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY THIN THIS MORNING IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE LONGER OPEN WATER FETCH OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN.  THAT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL CHANGE MUCH IN THE
IMMEDIATE FUTURE...THERE IS MORE STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
LOWER AND PERHAPS SOME OF THAT ADVECTS/DEVELOPS NORTHEAST LATER
TODAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BACK.  MID/HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST TOWARD LATE MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...SO OVERALL THINK A PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOON
IS ON TAP.  SOME SPOTTY RADAR RETURNS UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHWEST
ONTARIO/NORTHERN MINNESOTA BUT NOT SEEING MUCH YET IN TERMS OF
SURFACE PRECIPITATION REPORTS WITH CEILINGS IN THE 8K-12K FOOT
RANGE.  SO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON SYNOPTIC PRECIP CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES (SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN WON`T HURT THE CAUSE).  SO THINK SOME CHANCE POPS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ABOVE THE BRIDGE SHOULD COVER THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR NOW.

TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  GUSTS OF 25-
30MPH EXPECTED MOST AREAS...30-40MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN AND THROUGH
THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC.  COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES WITH BLOWING
SNOW...ESPECIALLY CONCERNED ALONG US-2 IN WESTERN MACKINAC COUNTY
WITH STRONG WINDS BLOWING SNOW IN OFF THE ICE COVER ON NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN.  AFTER THURSDAY`S CHILL...EXPECT TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO REBOUND INTO THE 20S.

TONIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED SNOW CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN UPPER WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY SPREAD SOUTH OF THE
BRIDGE AS WELL SO WILL EXPAND POPS INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
LOWER.  WHILE THIS IS OCCURRING...NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK
WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  MAIN IMPACT WITH
THIS FEATURE AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED LOOKS TO OCCUR
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST WILL AUGMENT CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

...MILDER TEMPERATURES AHEAD...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH. SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: AND SO IT BEGINS. THE MUCH
ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TO ONE OF GRADUALLY WARMING ALREADY
UNDERWAY...WITH NOTED REBOUNDING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ON REGIONAL 00Z
RAOB ANALYSIS. WITH THAT SAID...CURRENT CONFIGURATION OF BROAD
MID LEVEL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH EMBEDDED MOISTURE STARVED
LOW AMP SHORTWAVES...EXPECTED TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. DESPITE THAT...CONNECTION TO ARCTIC TAP
IS NOW LOST...WITH A GRADUALLY MORE MODIFIED LOW LEVEL THERMAL
REGIME EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS OUR AREA. MUCH BIGGER CHANGES TO ONE
OF EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS (ABOVE NORMAL!) LOOKS TO OCCUR AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE STAGES OF NEXT WORK
WEEK...SPURRED ALONG BY STRONG SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
SQUASH CURRENT WESTERN RIDGING AND FORCE A MUCH MORE ZONAL PACIFIC
INFLUENCED PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST. ADDRESSING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES/FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND.

DETAILS: JUST KINDA A DREARY...ALBEIT MILDER...LOOKING WEEKEND.
COUPLE PASSING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS...ONE SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER
PERHAPS LATER SUNDAY...LOOK TO KEEP CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE. JUST
NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE OR FORCING WITH EITHER OF THESE...AND THE BEST
OF WHAT THERE ARE LOOK TO PASS OFF TO OUR NORTH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS FLEETING...WITH PERIODS OF DISCONNECT BETWEEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND A MORE SUSTAINED LOWER LEVEL MOIST LAYER. MINIMAL OVER-
WATER INSTABILITY IN A WARMING LOW LEVEL THERMAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
LARGELY NEGATE ANY LAKE CONTRIBUTION (AS WILL EXTENSIVE ICE COVER).
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE SNOW APPEARS SATURDAY MORNING WHEN
DEEPER MOISTURE DEPTH AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ARE BEST JUXTAPOSED. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MINIMAL AT BEST. DO HAVE
SOME CONCERN FOR AT LEAST SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS DEEPER MOISTURE
WANES. UNCERTAINTY JUST TOO HIGH FOR A SPECIFIC MENTION OF SUCH IN
THE FORECAST JUST YET. LOSE OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSING SURFACE
RIDGING EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS (POCKETS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING
DRIZZLE?) ARRIVING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...NOT
LOOKING LIKE A BIG DEAL AT ALL.

TEMPERATURES: WHILE DEFINITELY TRENDING MUCH MORE TOLERABLE...REAL
WARMING LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WORK WEEK. STILL...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL PROGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGHS LARGELY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
30S FOR NORTHERN LOWER...JUST A TOUCH COOLER NORTH OF THE BIG
BRIDGE. EVEN WITH A LITTLE BIT OF A BREEZE...NO DOUBT THESE READINGS
WILL LIKELY FEEL DOWNRIGHT BALMY AFTER THE RECORD SETTING COLD
CONDITIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

ONLY REAL STORY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD IS TEMPERATURE TRENDS. COOL AIRMASS IN FULL RETREAT MODE AS
WE HEAD INTO THE END OF MONDAY (HIGHS WELL INTO THE 30S)...WITH A
SURGE OF MODIFIED PACIFIC AIR EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA
TUESDAY WELL AHEAD OF WEAK NORTHERN PLAINS COLD FRONT. H8/H9
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SPIKE ABOVE ZERO...AND WITH SOME MECHANICAL
MIXING VIA SOUTHWEST WINDS...SEE NO REASON HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WON`T PUSH INTO THE LOWER (MIDDLE?) 40S. EXPECT MUCH THE SAME
HEADING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OF COURSE IGNORING THE OVER-AMPLIFIED
AND MUCH COOLER GFS. NOW...WITH THAT SAID...ALWAYS LEERY IN SUCH
TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REGIMES WITH STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR
LURKING JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER. SURE WOULDN`T TAKE MUCH TO "BLEED"
SOME OF THIS LOWER LEVEL COOL AIRMASS SOUTH (SUCH AS THE STRONGER
NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IN GFS PROGS). CONSENSUS APPROACH CONTINUES TO
FAVOR THE MILDER LOOK...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE MID LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN AND A RESULTANT NORTH DISPLACED SURFACE FRONT (WHICH
THIS FORECAST WILL UTILIZE). SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR RETURNS THURSDAY
WITH NEARLY ALL MID RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
EASTERLY WINDS ON SOUTH SIDE OF ONTARIO HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT
MBL/TVC/PLN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB


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