Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 051600
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AT RISK OF STATING THE OBVIOUS...VERY COLD MORNING THIS MORNING
WITH BROAD AREA OF -15F TO -25F READINGS ACROSS INLAND EASTERN
UPPER AND NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. ONLY RECORD EVENT HOWEVER APPEARS
TO BE AT GAYLORD...WITH A -19F LOW WHICH TIES THE RECORD SET IN
2014.

OTHERWISE...LARGE EXPANSE OF HIGH PRESSURE (1035MB) STRETCHES
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ALONG WITH SOME
MIGHTY DRY AIR SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES...ABUNDANT CLEAR SKIES DOMINATES THE REGION FOR MOMENT. WE
HAVE ARE USUAL BAND OF LAKE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF
LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...LARGELY CONFINED TO THE LEELANAU TO
MANISTEE SHORELINE BY THE INLAND COLD DOME.

REST OF TODAY...LIGHTER WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS
AND WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOME OF THAT AFOREMENTIONED LAKE
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INLAND
ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY RESULT IN
EXPANDING CU/STCU ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN TO VARYING DEGREES.
CALL IT SUNNY...BECOMING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE SW COUNTIES PROBABLY SEEING MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER
GIVEN TRAJECTORIES OFF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

TEMPS...FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOW MAXIMUM READINGS TODAY AND
CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECASTS BREAK THOSE RECORDS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOO. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

SAULT SAINT MARIE: -4F (1890)
PELLSTON: 14F (2013)
ALPENA: 17F (2014)
GAYLORD: 13F (2003)
TRAVERSE CITY: 13F (2014)
HOUGHTON LAKE: 16F (1972)

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...RECORD COLD HIGHS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUB-ZERO AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS/
MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS WISCONSIN/NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND THE ADJACENT
CANADIAN PROVINCES.  IMPRESSIVE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN...205KT JUST BELOW 200MB ON 00Z DTX SOUNDING (130KT AT
500MB)...ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF A POSITIVE TILT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA WITH JUST SOME LAKE BANDS AND
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WEST OF US-131...AND LAKE
HURON CLIPPING PRESQUE ISLE COUNTY.  00Z APX SOUNDING INVERSION
HEIGHT RIGHT AROUND 750MB/-18C...MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND 320
DEGREES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO IOWA...THEN
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.  HEIGHT/THERMAL TROUGH WILL CROSS
MICHIGAN TODAY...WITH WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE UPPER LAKES
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: JUST SOME LINGERING CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER
CONCERNS TODAY BETWEEN THE LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES.  COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY (RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES).

TODAY...WILL START THE DAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA (WEST OF A TVC-CAD LINE)...MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS RIGHT
ALONG/JUST OFFSHORE WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION
(WON`T SEE MUCH AS THIS WILL OCCUR BELOW RADAR BEAM LEVEL).  BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SOME ASSISTANCE FROM DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED TO
SPREAD SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INLAND TOWARD MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...
THINK THAT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE M-32 CORRIDOR.  SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR
THIS MORNING ALONG THE US-31 CORRIDOR IN BENZIE/MANISTEE COUNTIES
DEPENDING ON WHERE LAND BREEZE BAND SETS UP.  OTHERWISE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AT THE START GIVING WAY TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS.  CLOUD COVER
MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER THIS AFTERNOON.  SO FAR THIS
MORNING WIND CHILLS HAVEN`T BEEN MUCH OF AN ISSUE AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY SLACKED OFF...RANGING FROM ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW.  NOT
EXPECTED TO NEED ANY WIND CHILL HEADLINES THIS MORNING.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEENS...A
SOLID 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AT MOST LOCALES.  SEVERAL RECORD
MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE JEOPARDY THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING APN (17/2014)...HTL (16/1972)...TVC (13/2014)...PLN
(14/2003)...AND GLR (13/2003)

TONIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH SLIDES BY TO THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION AS THERMAL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES/NORTHEAST.  IN GENERAL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN CLOUDS MOST AREAS DURING THE EVENING...THE EXCEPTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT IN OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE SHALLOW INSTABILITY CONTINUES
WITH A MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY OVER AN OPEN WATER FETCH.  THESE
CLOUDS MAY SPILL FARTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH TIME DURING THE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP QUICKLY TOWARD OR BELOW ZERO THIS EVENING IN
AREAS THAT CAN REMAIN CLEAR FOR A TIME...THOUGH MORE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT INTO NORTHWEST LOWER AND INCREASING WINDS EVERYWHERE
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

...BYE BYE ARCTIC AIR, AT LEAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE...

ARCTIC AIR WILL SLOWLY ERODE FRIDAY WITH MILDER AIR FINALLY
DISLODGING THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS. HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY
BE AN ARDUOUS PROCESS AND MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY AS SOME EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IS NOW DELIVERING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR OUR WAY LATER
NEXT WEEK (REALLY?). THE ENSUING BATTLE BETWEEN THE COLD AND WARM
AIR WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND...MAINLY FRIDAY AND BOUTS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME AS SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT MUCH MILDER AIR WILL WIN OUT
(AT LEAST TEMPORARILY) BY THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER A
BRISK AND CHILLY FRIDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOME FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD TO NOTICE THE INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES DROP DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW.
MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO
AT BEST. HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S FRIDAY AND THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S SATURDAY. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW WIND
CHILL TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO BRISK WINDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TEMPORARILY BREAK DOWN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEFORE POSSIBLE RENEWED
TROUGHING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK (CAN WE JUST SKIP THE TROUGH?). IN
THE MEANTIME...YET ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE (ALBERTA
CLIPPER) WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY RESULTING
IN MORE CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH LITTLE APPRECIABLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL HOPEFULLY HOLD THESE SYSTEMS AT BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE TOLERABLE SUNDAY BEFORE EVEN
MILDER READINGS LIKELY FINALLY ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (AT
LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS ANYWAYS). HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 30S...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S MONDAY THEN THE UPPER 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY (THAT SURE IS GOING TO FEEL GOOD!).
I AM NOT GIVING UP HOPE FOR A FEW 50 DEGREE READINGS WEDNESDAY AS
WELL AS A TIGHT GRADIENT SHOULD PROMOTE A DECENT AMOUNT OF MIXING
OUT AHEAD OF WHAT LOOKS LIKE WILL BE ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS
AND THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS AROUND MBL WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN MORE
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT OTHER TERMINALS
INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN



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