Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 271549
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1149 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. NORTHERLY FLOW LAKE EFFECT
CONTINUES ALONG THE SHORELINES...BUT DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD LIMIT/SQUASH ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...VERY COLD TODAY WITH
HIGHS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR THE DATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

CLEARING LINE BISECTING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES DISSIPATING AND PULLING EAST. A FEW SMALL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR CLOUD/PCPN TIMING. OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING IS IN GOOD SHAPE. STILL EXPECTING A MAJORITY OF THE
CLOUDS TODAY OVER NORTHEAST LOWER...ALONG WITH A FEW
FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE/FORCING PRODUCE AREAS OF SNOWSHOWERS/FLURRIES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
OVERSPREADING THE AREA.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE CLOUD/SNOW SHOWER ISSUES
TODAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

TODAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING 850MB THERMAL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE
AREA WITH -20C AIR.  MAJORITY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY WILL BE FROM
I-75 EASTWARD...THANKS LARGELY TO MORE OPEN WATER OVER NORTHERN
LAKE HURON COMPARED WITH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. EXPECT QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE OVER NORTHWEST LOWER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOWARD
THE LAKE HURON COASTLINE. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWSHOWERS
WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LOWER EASTWARD
TOWARD LAKE HURON /ESPECIALLY EARLY/ WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE PEGGED
THROUGH THE DGZ.  TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD /NEAR RECORD
SETTING MIN HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS/ WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
WINDS TO DE-COUPLE WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.  STILL
EXPECT NUISANCE NORTH FLOW LAKE CLOUDS TO HUG THE LAKE HURON
COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALPENA. THESE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER IN THESE AREAS COMPARED TO LOCATIONS
FURTHER WEST. SO LOWS IN THE TEENS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE HURON
COAST SOUTH OF ALPENA WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A BURST OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND
QUITE GUSTY WINDS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY FALL AS RAIN. GALES POSSIBLE FOR NEARSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH ONLY WHITEFISH BAY/ST MARYS RIVER HAVE
ACTIVE FORECASTS UNTIL MONDAY.

CLASSIC SPRING-TIME NORTHERN MICHIGAN WEATHER IS IN FULL FORCE AS WE
TICK THROUGH THE LATTER DAYS OF MARCH...FEATURING RATHER CHANGEABLE
CONDITIONS AND SADLY ANOTHER BOUT OF WINTRY WEATHER AS WE WRAP UP
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE IN FULL CONTROL ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY
TO QUITE THE SHARP UPPER FEATURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY...DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BACK THROUGH THE REGION INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND INTENSITY
DIFFERENCES REGARDING THIS UPPER WAVE...WITH THE GFS THE MOST ROBUST
IN TAKING IT NEGATIVE TILT (NO SHOCK THERE GIVEN ITS KNOWN BIAS)
WHILE NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE KEEPS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE. THAT
SETUP WILL ULTIMATELY HAVE THE BIGGEST SAY ON JUST HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION WE CAN GENERATE THROUGH LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT REGARDLESS...THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING
MUCH MORE ACTIVE THAN THE FIRST.

SPEAKING OF WHICH...JUST NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PESKY LAKE CLOUDS (MAYBE
FLURRIES?) NEAR THE LAKE HURON SHORE EARLY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW AND
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT LAKE INSTABILITY PRESENT...THOUGH HAVE A
FEELING COLD INLAND TEMPS WILL HELP DEVELOP A NOTABLE LAND BREEZE
COMPONENT...HELPING PUNT MUCH OF THIS JUST OFFSHORE. QUITE THE DRY
AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SKIES MAINLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WITH
SOME THICKER CIRRUS ARRIVING AFTER MIDDAY. DESPITE THAT SUN...BACK
EDGE OF STOUT THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS WELL
IN CHECK...WITH READINGS STUCK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.

WINDS CRANK UP COURTESY OF A TIGHTENING GRADIENT SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THICKENING CLOUDS. COULD BE A WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO
TUMBLE EASTERN SPOTS EARLY...BUT RISING READINGS SHOULD BE THE RULE
LATE. DEEPENING MIXING INTO A CORE OF 35-45 KNOTS BY 18Z SUNDAY
SHOULD GIVE QUITE THE WINDY DAY FOR ALL AREAS. DEEP LAYER AND RATHER
IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH AN
AXIS OF 0.50+ INCH PWAT VALUES TO DELIVER A RATHER FAST-MOVING BAND
OF PRECIP LATER IN THE DAY...WITH A ROUGHLY 4-5 HOUR WINDOW OF GOOD
FORCING FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION...JUST IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG AXIS OF
-DIVQ FORCING AND THE LOW LEVEL "COLD" FRONT. TIME OF DAY (LATER
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL) TYPICALLY MEANS WE HAVE TIME TO HEAT UP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER...AND INDEED TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE THROUGH THE 40S TO
PROBABLY 40S NORTHEAST LOWER ON DOWNSLOPE FLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW
LEVELS ALSO LOOK QUITE DRY...WITH PLENTY OF ROOM FOR RAPID WET-BULB
COOLING AS PRECIP BEGINS. AS SUCH...AND BASED ON SIMILAR SUCH
SYSTEMS OVER THE YEARS...GUT FEELING IS WE SEE MAINLY ALL SNOW
HIGHER TERRAIN/EASTERN UPPER AND A QUICK RAIN TO SNOW CHANGEOVER
MOST OTHER AREAS. DESPITE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...HEAVY
RATES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUT DOWN A QUICK COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW (ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT STAY ALL SNOW)...AND COMBINED WITH
CONTINUED WINDY CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPACTS ARE
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. SORT OF INTERESTING - WE MAY ACTUALLY SEEM
TEMPS RISE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF PRECIP-
INDUCED COOLING AND EVEN DEEPER MIXING.

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES TRANSITING THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE COUNTRY AND MAKING A RUN AT NORTHERN MICHIGAN. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY
OF EACH WAVE...WITH RUN-TO-RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY NOT EXACTLY HIGH
AND NOT SURPRISING AT ALL GIVEN THE PATTERN SETUP. 12Z ECMWF BY FAR
THE MOST ROBUST WITH AN FGEN SIGNAL RIDING THE NORTHERN LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH ACTUALLY SOME MODEST SUPPORT FROM GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT NONE FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE. THIS ONE WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...AS PROGGED THERMAL REGIME COULD DELIVER SOME SNEAKY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA SHOULD IT PLAY OUT.

BY FAR THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR PRECIP LIES INTO MIDWEEK WITH A
STRONGER WAVE WORKING THROUGH THE FLOW. OF COURSE...GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE MAP WITH THE THERMAL REGIME AND DEPTH OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHING...AND UNFORTUNATELY THAT CAN MEAN A HUGE SWING BETWEEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MORE TYPICAL WARMTH TOWARD WED/THU (IF WE BREAK
INTO ANY WARM SECTOR) AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO OF CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY WEATHER BASED ON CLIMO. REALLY NOT SO SURE I AGREE WITH
CONSENSUS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S DURING THIS STRETCH...WITH
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONG HINTS OF A WARM FRONT GETTING LOCKED UP
OVER NORTHERN LOWER (NEAR ITS CLIMO-FAVORED POSITION THIS TIME OF
YEAR)...SUGGESTING WE MAY WELL GET THE SHORT END OF ANY "WARMER"
WEATHER. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT APN THIS
MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED AT
THE OTHER TERMINALS. N/NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SULLIVAN
NEAR TERM...KEYSOR
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...KEYSOR


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