000
FXUS63 KAPX 200951
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
551 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool and breezy again today with scattered rain/snow showers.

- Breezy northwest winds expected Sunday.

- Rain showers Tuesday into early Wednesday along with breezy winds.

- Mild temperatures return late this upcoming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing centered over the Great Lakes/southeast Canada will
continue to pivot eastward today as the associated surface cyclone
treks far to our northeast across Quebec. A second strong trough
looks to dig south across Canada towards the region tonight.
Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds across the heart of the
CONUS today, nosing into the region heading into Sunday.

Forecast Details:

Similar weather to yesterday is expected across northern Michigan
again today. Persistent west-northwest winds on the backside of
low pressure will remain breezy, gusting between 20-30 mph at
times through the afternoon. Steep lapse rates and sufficient
low-level moisture will remain in place to support isolated to
scattered rain/snow showers this morning into this evening.
Light snow is mostly likely across the eastern U.P. and higher
elevations of northern lower where temperatures look to stay
close to freezing under falling precip. Very little to no
accumulation is expected. Otherwise, clearing cloud cover is
expected later today into tonight with overnight lows expected
to drop well into the 20s for those away from the immediate
lakeshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Upper low passes well to the north of the Canadian border Sunday
resulting in a wind shift across northern Michigan and breezy
conditions. Zonal flow aloft takes hold early this week in addition
to a return to southwest sfc winds. Next trough and subsequent sfc
low pressure system will swing through on Tuesday producing
predominantly rain showers across the area and additional breezy
winds. Heights aloft rise towards late week with warming
temperatures and dry conditions.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Energy will pass to the north of northern Michigan on Sunday
resulting in a wind shift to the northwest and breezy conditions
during the daytime hours. Boundary layer heights approach ~5-7K+ ft
AGL and mix into 25 to 30 kts through the column, thus, a breezy day
will be on tap for the region (gusts generally 25 to 35 mph). Based
on recent past, these types of setups have resulted in quicker low
level drying and thus lower relative humidities that modeled. Thus,
blended in some NBM10th percentile. Interior and southeast portions
of northern Michigan could see elevated fire weather conditions,
thus outdoor burning will not be recommended.

Next piece of energy and low pressure system will approach the
region Tuesday resulting in largely rain showers across the region.
Hints of a little instability possible in some of the guidance as
the low pressure system tracks generally to the north of the area,
so slight chance for a few thunder-storms/showers. Nevertheless,
probs for 0.5" of precip are quite low on the GEPS/EPS for this
event (leaning towards the upper level pattern evolution within this
guidance) thus not too terribly impactful in regards to the heavy
rain threat. Anticipate some breezy to windy conditions as well with
this system mid week with temperatures in the 40s most locations
Wednesday.

After a cooler mid week, temperatures rebound quite nicely to close
out the work week. Heights aloft will begin to rise, thus fostering
a quick rebound in temperatures (from the 40s Wednesday to the 50s
and 60s Thursday and Friday). Expecting largely dry conditions
during this time but more active weather is likely shortly
thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected across northern Michigan through the
duration of the issuance period. Low VFR CIGs are likely across the
eastern U.P. and interior northern lower through this afternoon as
cloud clover gradually scatters out through the day. Clear skies are
in store for tonight. West winds around 10 kts with gusts around 20-
25 kts are also expected through this afternoon before weakening
this evening. Scattered light rain/snow showers will work across the
area into tonight, but are not expected to impact TAF sites with
lowered VSBYs at this time.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     LHZ345>349.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-
     341-342-344>346.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ322.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJC
LONG TERM...JLD
AVIATION...DJC