Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231752
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
152 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1042 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Not much of an update with such quiet weather. The cold front has
now made it into far nrn lower, with widespread stratus and some
sprinkles and possibly some flurries in the cold air in it`s wake.
Sunny skies out ahead of the front and another day of warm
temperatures. Gonna have quite the thermal gradient out there,
with eastern upper locked in the middle 40s, and far SE counties
into the middle 60s with additional hours of warming prior to the
front. There still looks to be some clearing in the stratus later
today, as the narrow corridor of moisture shears out with the
departure of a shortwave in Ontario.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...A few rain/snow showers far north...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Sprawling surface high stretches from the
central plains across the lower Great Lakes, while a secondary more
Arctic like high pressure rotates east across central Canada. Cold
front on the south side of the latter making steady progress
southeast, about set to reach eastern upper Michigan within the next
few hours. Front is largely moisture starved this far east, and best
mid level support is detached well to the north. Just enough forcing
and moisture convergence to kick off clouds and a band of light rain
and snow showers just along and behind the front, some of which
looks to skirt eastern upper this morning. High pressure dominates
the weather south of the bridge, bringing another star-filled night
and seasonably chilly temperatures.

Just enough push from that Canadian high to drag the cold front
south across the area this morning and early afternoon. Attendant
moisture axis shears out in the process, likely resulting in a dry
frontal passage for northern lower Michigan. Surface ridging looks
to dominate our weather once again through tonight, with next round
of waa driven precipitation likely developing well to our northwest
by late tonight.

Primary forecast concerns: Addressing light shower potential with
passing front this morning. Cloud and temperature trends through
tonight.

Details: As mentioned, cold front expected to make steady south
progress across our area this morning into early afternoon.
Attendant moisture axis stretches out across eastern upper this
morning, shearing out and thinning with time as mid level wave
rotates off well to the north. A few light showers, perhaps mixed
with a bit of snow, still looks reasonable this morning for areas
north of the Straits. Simply not enough forcing nor deep enough
moisture to support rain chances across northern lower, although
clouds should definitely increase, especially for areas north of M-
72. As moisture channel thins, will likely see some thinning of the
cloud cover heading through this afternoon. Temperature trends
definitely remain the trickiest part of todays forecast. Cold air
advection will be kicking off first thing this morning across the
north, and when combined with that greater cloud cover, looks to
keep areas in the Straits and eastern upper stuck in the 40s. Much
longer window for good temperature recovery further south, with
enhancement via more sunshine and downslope flow resulting in
temperatures reaching into the 60s on the south side of the sunrise
side. This does raise some concern for fire weather, with deeper
mixing helping scour out morning low level moisture. Relative
humidity values may once again reach critical levels down near
Saginaw Bay. Will use our latest fire weather forecast products to
highlight this concern.

Really not a ton of change heading through tonight. Developing
elevated waa advection will likely result in a thicken back up of
the mid and upper level clouds for northern areas. Best advection is
well removed to our northwest, and model derived soundings continue
to indicate plenty of low level dry air. May be just enough moisture
to result in a few sprinkles and flurries once again for eastern
upper. Definitely not convinced this will occur, and trends support
what is able to reach the surface will be off to our northwest.
Light northeast to east flow and those clouds will prevent
temperatures from falling like the last couple nights. Widespread
30s expected, with northeast lower and eastern upper making a run to
or just below freezing.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Increasing shower chances...

High pressure and associated dry air hang on across much of the area
Monday as low pressure systems are located to our west and
southeast. This should lead to decreasing clouds north (with just a
slight chance for a rain or snow shower early) and mostly sunny
skies south. The dry air is expected to win out for the most part
Monday night as well. Slow moving low pressure from the west will
edge closer to the area later Tuesday into Tuesday night bringing
increasing chances for showers (especially across northern and
western zones). It looks like there will be a wide temperature range
Monday with highs only in the upper 40s far north but the middle 60s
southwest. Highs Tuesday much warmer with temperatures ranging from
the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south. Lows in the upper 30s to
middle 40s Monday night and the milder middle 40s to lower 50s
Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

...Fairly unsettled...

Low pressure is very slow to move across the region. This will
likely prolong showers and possible thunderstorms Wednesday all the
way into at least the first half of Thursday. A cold front is then
shown to usher in a quick shot of chilly air as it moves through the
area Thursday morning (though model timing as been all over the
place over the last few runs). Models vary on just how cold the air
is behind the front as well as how much moisture there will be.
Either way more chances for instability driven showers Thursday
afternoon and possibly even Thursday night when it may be cold
enough for a mix with snow showers. The chilly air should hang
around into Friday before warmer readings return to start next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

A cold front continues to drop south of the area with winds out of
the north and gusting in spots. There is also a band of better
moisture/clouds behind this front, but it has been thinning out
over time with only PLN seeing some periodic MVFR CIGS. Lighter
winds tonight into Monday morning as winds turn easterly due to
higher pressure working into the nrn Great Lakes. Winds will be
more SE later Monday and gusty at times as the cold front to our
south gradually starts to lift back north. Maybe see some
additional low to mid level clouds, but right now, do not see much
indication that skies will be much more than mostly clear to
just partly cloudy.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Winds turn northerly today behind a weakening cold front
dropping south across the area. Despite the attendant cold air
advection and diminishing over-water stability, winds will remain
below advisory levels due to a weaker pressure gradient. This front
returns as a warm front Monday with winds turning southerly and
increasing through Monday night.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...MSB
SHORT TERM...AJS
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...MSB


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