Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS73 KAPX 142215
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Mack McKinley Unit 8...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
615 PM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on March 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Widespread rain will come to an end this evening as
low pressure passes through far Southern Lower Michigan and then
pushes into New England later tonight and Friday. Clouds will
gradually clear overnight into Friday as high pressure builds into
our region.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........37 percent.
20-foot winds.......North winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 6 to 9 mph late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 9 to 13 mph.
Mixing height.......1600-3200 ft AGL increasing to 3800-4100 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (20800.0).

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........47  44  34  27  22  17  12  8
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............33  35  39  41  43  47  48  49
RH..............85  78  70  62  57  45  42  37
20 ft wind dir..N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   9   9   9
20 ft wind gust.14  14  14  14  14  16  16  16
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.1 4.1
Haines index....5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.13  10  9   9   9   10  12  12
Vrate kt-ft.....20K 21K 20K 24K 29K 39K 47K 47K
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers and snow showers early in the
                    morning.
Min temperature.....Around 31.
Max humidity........82 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest
                    5 to 9 mph overnight.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 12 mph shifting to the southwest 12
                    to 14 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......2400-4000 ft AGL decreasing to 400-800 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (3300.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........5   5   5   8   11  16  23  31  39  46  52  61
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            RS
Tstm cov........
Temp............47  45  40  36  34  33  32  32  33  33  33  34
RH..............38  41  50  59  64  69  72  72  72  75  75  75
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..8   8   8   5   5   5   7   7   7   9   9   9
20 ft wind gust.15  15  15  10  10  10  12  12  12  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...4.0 2.4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  8   8   8   9   8   9   12  13  14  14  14
Vrate kt-ft.....46K 19K 65005600530033003400390050006700900011K
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 50.
Min humidity........56 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 12 to 20 mph shifting to the
                    west 18 to 20 mph late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 23 mph shifting to the west 24
                    to 26 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......900-2800 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4900 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (13500.0) increasing to excellent
                    (121700.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........71     84     87     86     81     71
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....RNSN   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............34     33     39     43     46     47
RH..............75     82     76     70     63     58
20 ft wind dir..SW     SW     SW     SW     SW     W
20 ft wind spd..17     17     18     20     20     20
20 ft wind gust.25     25     26     30     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)....900    1300   2300   3100   3600   4700
Haines index....4      4      4      4      3      3
Transport wind..SW 15  SW 17  SW 23  SW 25  W 24   W 26
Vrate kt-ft.....13K    22K    52K    78K    87K    121K
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

$$
Forecaster...MLR
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2406957.0/APX
.DELDT 03/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov


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