016
FNUS73 KAPX 070723
FWSAPX

Spot Forecast for Frost Pocket Unit 4...MIDNR
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
323 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 EDT on May 07.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Passing high clouds this morning at the burn site
gradually thicken/lower this afternoon in advance of increasing
rain shower and isolated thunderstorm chances, mainly at 4 PM.
Prior to rain arrival, a brief window exists for RHs to fall to near
30 percent. Light winds this morning turn breezy out of the southeast
with gusts as high as around 20 mph through the afternoon/evening.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Becoming cloudy (85-95 percent). Scattered
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........29 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 10 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near any thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 21 to 22 mph.
Mixing height.......3300-3900 ft AGL.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Ventilation index...Good (725.0).

TIME (EDT)      1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........46  55  67  79  91
Weather cov.....                SCT
Weather type....                RW
Tstm cov........                SCH
Temp............66  67  68  68  66
RH..............32  30  29  31  37
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind spd..14  14  14  14  14
20 ft wind gust.21  21  22  22  22
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.21  21  21  21  22
Vrate kt-ft.....761 801 808 792 725
Ventrate Cat....GD  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the
                    evening. Scattered rain showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 12 mph in the evening and
                    overnight becoming light, then becoming
                    southwest 5 to 6 mph after 3 am. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near any thunderstorms.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 20 mph shifting to the south 7
                    to 8 mph overnight, then shifting to the
                    southwest 9 to 10 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......500-2000 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (43.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........89  88  86  85  84  82  79  75  72  76  80  84
Weather cov.....NUM NUM NUM NUM NUM SCT SCT SCT CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH
Temp............63  61  56  54  52  53  52  52  52  52  52  50
RH..............43  48  66  71  80  80  86  89  89  89  89  100
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SW  SW  SW
20 ft wind spd..14  14  14  13  13  13  9   9   9   7   7   7
20 ft wind gust.21  21  21  18  18  18  13  13  13  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...2.0 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.6
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  W
Transp wind spd.20  16  16  15  13  12  13  7   8   8   10  9
Vrate kt-ft.....385 229 200 175 101 88  127 70  75  43  60  59
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning. Chance of rain showers
                    late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 63.
Min humidity........60 percent.
20-foot winds.......West winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the morning.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph increasing to 18 to 24 mph
                    late in the morning.
Mixing height.......800-2000 ft AGL increasing to 3100-4600 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Poor (90.0) increasing to good to very good
                    (720.0-1037.0) late in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........80     72     79     73     80     76
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC
Temp............52     55     56     60     61     61
RH..............93     86     83     69     62     60
20 ft wind dir..W      W      W      W      W      NW
20 ft wind spd..10     10     13     13     13     12
20 ft wind gust.16     16     22     24     24     23
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1300   2000   3500   4500   4400
Haines index....4      3      3      3      3      3
Transport wind..W 12   W 16   W 20   W 23   W 23   W 21
Vrate kt-ft.....90     201    396    808    1037   896
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   GOOD   VYGD   GOOD

$$
Forecaster...MJG
Requested by...Nate Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413283.0/APX
.DELDT 05/07/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stearnsn@michigan.gov