Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS73 KAPX 130953
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Spot Forecast for Parliment RX...USFS
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
553 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on March 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative... contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (989)732-9306, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Quiet weather is expected across the area today,
with a dry air mass in place and winds generally at or below 10 mph. A
weather disturbance will approach the area tonight into Thursday night,
accompanied by rainfall. Winds will will remain relatively light until
Saturday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........29 percent.
20-foot winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 8 mph.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL early increasing to 4000 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (4700.0) increasing to excellent
                    (54100.0) late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........10  10  9   6   5   6   4   7
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............45  49  53  56  59  61  61  61
RH..............62  56  48  42  34  31  31  29
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 ft wind spd..6   6   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 ft wind gust.9   9   12  12  12  12  12  12
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.0 1.4 2.4 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.5
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.9   8   8   9   10  10  12  10
Vrate kt-ft.....4700770011K 22K 41K 47K 60K 54K
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 30.
Max humidity........100 percent.
20-foot winds.......North winds 6 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 5 mph late in the evening, then
                    becoming light overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 9 mph shifting to the northeast
                    6 to 8 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL early decreasing to 400-900 ft AGL.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (2100.0).

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........13  19  24  16  15  29  42  39  36  46  65  75
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............60  56  51  47  45  43  41  40  38  37  36  33
RH..............32  38  48  56  62  67  73  76  82  82  85  92
20 ft wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..7   7   7   6   6   6   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 ft wind gust.10  10  10  8   8   8   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.9   8   7   7   7   6   8   7   7   6   6   7
Vrate kt-ft.....42K 71004500260031002700350032002800230021002500
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers late in the morning. Rain showers
                    likely in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 48.
Min humidity........64 percent.
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 13 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 12 mph shifting to the east 16
                    to 21 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Ventilation index...Excellent (1900.0).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........76     77     77     89     89     89
Weather cov.....       S CHC  CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............33     33     39     44     47     47
RH..............92     92     82     70     65     64
20 ft wind dir..NE     NE     NE     E      E      NE
20 ft wind spd..3      3      8      10     10     13
20 ft wind gust.5      5      12     16     16     20
Mix hgt (ft)....300    300    700    1100   1300   1400
Haines index....5      4      4      4      3      3
Transport wind..NE 6   NE 7   E 12   E 17   E 18   E 21
Vrate kt-ft.....1900   2400   7900   19K    24K    27K
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

$$
Forecaster...PBB
Requested by...Travis Wiltse
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2406253.1/APX
.DELDT 03/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL travis.a.wiltse@usda.gov


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