Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 200953
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AT 3 AM...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS SYSTEM PRODUCED SOME
LIGHT SNOW EARLIER IN THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 10 TO 19. A WEST WIND
AT 10 TO 20 MPH WAS PRODUCING WINDS CHILLS RANGING FROM -7 TO
15. THE COLDEST WIND CHILL WAS -7 AT DEXTER MINNESOTA.

THE 20.00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 1026 MB SURFACE
HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL THEN
DRIFT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURES IN THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON IN
DESPITE OF THE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THESE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A FEW COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS TO BE TIED OR BROKEN. THE LA CROSSE WI RECORD IS ALREADY
SAFE AND THE ROCHESTER RECORD CAN ONLY BE TIED. MORE ON THE
COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS CAN BE FOUND IN THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW.

WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO NEAR ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL
COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES OF THIS COLD SNAP...MANY OF THE RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT ARE SUB-ZERO. THE ONLY ONE THAT LOOKS
TO POTENTIALLY BEATABLE IS AT WINONA DAM 5A WHERE THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FOR TONIGHT IS 8 BACK IN 2000.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...THE 20.00Z MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT MODERATE 290 TO 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE
MODERATE TO STRONG 925 MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUNDINGS LOOK VERY DRY ABOVE 850 MB...SO
NOT SEEING ANY SEEDING OF ICE CRYSTALS FROM ALOFT. AS A RESULT...
THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN IN THE FORM OF LIQUID.
BOTH AIR AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE INITIALLY AND THEN AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM
INTO THE 30S...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
DRIZZLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKELY FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD DUE TO THE LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE BEST 925 AND 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS VERY LITTLE LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW
925 MB. AS A RESULT...LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE ARLATEX TO
THE QUAD CITIES. THIS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAT PREVIOUS RUNS...SO
LOWERED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES A BIT OVERNIGHT. LIKE THE PAST 3
NIGHTS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRID LOOKS TOO COLD FOR THIS NIGHT.
THE LAST 5 RUNS OF COBB DATA HAS LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...SO ONCE AGAIN RAISED THEM BY A FEW
DEGREES. THIS KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW...AND THEN THIS
SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE DEFORMATION BAND MOVES
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT
OF SPREAD IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS. THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

CLOUDS FELL APART WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH MOSTLY
SCATTERED VFR SKIES PER LATEST FOG/STRATUS IMAGERY AND SFC OBS.
HRRR/RAP/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED CLOUDS
WHILE THE NAM STILL HOLDS SOME HOPE FOR A BKN MVFR CIG. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BKN CIG DEVELOPING...MORESO THU AFTERNOON
WHERE CYCLONIC FLOW AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER COULD GEN UP SCT/BKN CU. A FEW -SHSN WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO. BUT FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH SCT VFR.


&&

.CLIMATE...TODAY
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WHILE THE COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS LA CROSSE/S /20 IN
1872 AND 1964/ IS STILL SAFE. OTHER COLD RECORDS COULD BE
JEAPORDY OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN TODAY.

AUSTIN MN               15       1978
BLACK RIVER FALLS WI    26       2000
CHARLES CITY IA         17       1985
DECORAH IA              17       1985
FRIENDSHIP WI           24       1937
LANCASTER WI            20       1964
MONDOVI WI              19       1926
NEILLSVILLE WI          18       1978
PRAIRIE DU CHIEN WI     21       1937
PRESTON MN              20       1978
RICHLAND CENTER WI      20       1937
ROCHESTER MN            14       1985*
SPARTA WI               19       1978
VIROQUA WI              21       1978
WINONA DAM 5A MN        24       1996

* IT WAS 14 AT MIDNIGHT...SO THIS RECORD COULD ONLY BE TIED.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
CLIMATE...BOYNE



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