Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 062008
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
208 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM INCLUDES A COUPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
THAT MAY IMPACT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN WI TONIGHT AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST
IA/SOUTHWEST WI LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL BE WATCHING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN TOWARD THE AREA. BY
SUNRISE...THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND BE LOCATED JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LIFT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
BRING IN/THICKEN CLOUD COVER BUT APPEARS ANY SNOW CHANCES WILL
REMAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN WI. KEPT SMALL-END 20-30 POPS ACROSS CLARK
AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...WITH CLOUD AND WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT...PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
MIDDLE 20S.

FOR SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY DAY AS THAT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS TO THE EAST KEEPS US IN A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE SOME CU/STRATOCUMULUS IN LINGERING
CYCLONIC FLOW. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE. FAIRLY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION
NOTED BEHIND THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE THERMAL FIELD...SO
LOOKS LIKE HIGHS SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS A DECENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/NORTHEAST IA..INTO SOUTHERN WI. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS AND
INTERACTION WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION 90-110KT 300MB JET/850-500MB
FRONTOGENESIS. LATEST 06.12Z GEM AND ECMWF NOT FLINCHING MUCH FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS YIELDING QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST
IA/FAR SOUTHWEST WI. THE NAM AND GFS HAVE SAM SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT
KEEP PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OUTSIDE THE ARX FORECAST AREA. AS
SUCH...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAINTAIN A 40-ISH POP FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGH
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER WAY...SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF AROUND AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PAST THE SNOW LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH SUNDAY
MORNING...WARM-UP LOOKS UNDERWAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVERALL WESTERLY WIND TRAJECTORY
OFF THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW WARMER/DOWNSLOPED AIR OVER THE
PLAINS INTO OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S...WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE
40S/LOWER 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...IT APPEARS
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES WILL BE SEEN AS A
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TURNING WINDS TO
A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AWAY FROM THE WARMER PLAINS. LATEST
GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN A BIT AS A TROUGH
RIDES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS DOESNT APPEAR TO HAVE TOO MUCH
AFFECT ON HIGH TEMPERATURES THOUGH AS BLENDED MODEL OUTPUT STILL
YIELDS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1118 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A MAINLY VFR PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A FEW WIND DIRECTION/SPEED CHANGES GOING ON. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
THE WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING...THE SPEEDS WILL DROP BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH THE DIRECTION
GOING BACK TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAUSING AN
INCREASE IN THE SPEEDS TO OVER 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN GO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING CHANGING
THE DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST AND BY LATE MORNING...SOME GOOD LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP AT KRST ALLOWING FOR SOME GUSTS TO
DEVELOP. THE 06.12Z NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SIMULATED FOG/LOW CLOUD PRODUCT FROM THE 06.00Z NSSL WRF ALSO SHOWS
THIS POTENTIAL...SO PUT IN A TEMPO PERIOD FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...04



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