Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 032020
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
220 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

SURFACE MAP SHOWING LOW PRESSURE THAT GAVE THE AREA ANYWHERE FROM A
COUPLE INCHES TO NEAR A FOOT OF SNOW NOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT DEFORMATION SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO EASTERN WI
WITH INTERMITTENT FLURRIES ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUD COVER LINGERING
ACROSS OUR AREA...BUT LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING
CLEARING WORKING IN ACROSS MN/IA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. OTHERWISE...FAIRLY BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE MIDDLE 20S.

LOOKS LIKE A CLEARING TREND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT PER
SYNTHETIC NSSL-WRF GOES-R IMAGERY...BUT SHORT-LIVED AS MID CLOUD
RACES IN AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE
AREA FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA/DAKOTAS. PLAN ON LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ROTATE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NAM INDICATING FAIRLY STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING IN ACROSS NORTHERN WI BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO AROUND
AN INCH LOOKS LIKELY...MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-94. PLAN ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S.

STILL SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
GOING INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE BECOMING PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGS ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN AN INCH. LOOK FOR HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE
20S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE TEENS/NEAR 20.

SATURDAY LOOKS QUIET WITH A SLIGHT WARMING AS HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE
UPPER 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CANADA ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PUSHING WELL INTO THE 30S. LOOKS LIKE
A CHANCE OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY CLOSELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW/BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF FALLING SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS...AND WITH GUSTY WINDS...COULD
SEE SOME BLOWING AROUND OF THE SNOW. OTHERWISE...CHILLING DOWN SOME
ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.

COLDER/MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS TAP SETS UP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE TEENS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE WINTER STORM CONTINUED TO EXIT THE AREA AT MID-DAY. THE TRAILING
EDGE OF THE LAST OF THE SNOW /WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS/ WAS COMING THRU
KRST AT 18Z...AND LOOKS TO BE EAST OF KLSE BY 20Z. CIGS IMPROVE
BEHIND THIS LAST BAND OF SNOW AS WELL WITH THE MVFR DECK BECOMING
SCT BEHIND IT...AND SKC OVER MUCH OF MN WEST OF A KMSP-KAEL LINE AS
OF 17Z. THIS IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH THRU THE AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH BLSN IN THE KRST AREA
ENDING. GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THRU
EARLY THU MORNING. NEXT SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST SPREADS INCREASING LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE AREA THRU THU
MORNING...WITH SOME 2500-3000 FT CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
KRST/KLSE AFTER 15Z. APPEARS ANOTHER ROUND OF -SN OR SCT -
SHSN...WITH WHAT WOULD BE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...TO SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION.....RRS


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