Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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424
FXUS63 KARX 151751
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1151 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Main forecast concerns in the short term are on dense fog
potential early over north central Wisconsin. Focus then turns to
falling temperatures through the day and potential for a few rain
or snow showers over north central Wisconsin this afternoon and
gusty northwest winds.

A cold front continues to march east across the area this morning
and as of 3 AM was positioned near the Interstate 35 corridor.
Light rain/drizzle continues at times early this morning over the
area along with patchy to areas of fog. A weak surface low was
moving into west central Wisconsin and is expected to slide over
north central Wisconsin early this morning. A brief period of
dense fog is possible as this low moves through. Otherwise, look
for the light rain/drizzle to end as the front pushes through.
Cold air advection will then be in place for late this morning
through the afternoon hours. So, high temperatures for today will
be early this morning then look for temperatures to fall through
the day. Most areas should be in the low to mid 30s by late this
afternoon. A compact shortwave will move over northern Wisconsin
late this afternoon and may trigger a few rain or snow showers
north of Interstate 94. Also, as the pressure gradient tightens
today plan on gusty northwest winds. We could see some wind gusts
to around 35 mph in open areas.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Main forecast concerns in the long-term are on chances for light
snow or freezing drizzle Thursday night into Friday. A switch over
to light snow is possible Friday night into early Saturday
morning as colder air works into the region.

Another cold front then approaches the region Thursday night as a
broad upper trough moves across the northern plains. Low stratus
and possibly fog will overspread the region ahead of the front
Thursday night into Friday. Precipitation will also overspread
the region during this timeframe but then the question is what
will the precipitation type be? Looking at forecast soundings, it
appears most of the precipitation should be in the form of drizzle
or freezing drizzle. There is currently a wintry mix of
sleet/freezing rain/snow in the forecast for Friday morning over
central into northern Wisconsin. If the saturation doesn`t deepen
this likely won`t happen. So through coordination  As mentioned
the main precipitation types would be drizzle and freezing drizzle
where surface temperatures are cold enough. Lingering drizzle
should switch over to a period of light snow Saturday morning
before ending as colder air wraps into the region with low
pressure deepening over Lake Huron. At this time any snow
accumulation looks minor. We then look to enter a potential dry
and cool period from Sunday all the way into the middle of next
week with cool northwesterly flow aloft and surface high pressure
attempting to dominate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

MVFR conditions are expected at KLSE and KRST through the forecast
period. Current observations show IFR ceilings at KRST. Looking at
upstream trends, these ceilings should rise back to MVFR levels by
around 15.19Z. There could be some breaks in the MVFR clouds this
evening through Thursday morning, but confidence on when and even
if this will happen is too low to include in the TAFs at this
time. Northwest winds will remain strong through the afternoon,
with gusts approaching 25 kt at KLSE and 30 kt at KRST. Winds will
gradually diminish this evening through the overnight. Look for
winds to turn southeasterly Thursday morning while remaining under
10 kt.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...Hollan



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