Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 302018
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON WINDY CONDITIONS AND COLDER AIR
ARRIVING TONIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO FRIDAY. A BREEZY AND COLD
HALLOWEEN IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER
SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S AND THIS SAME AIRMASS IS HEADED OUR WAY.
850 COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. PLAN ON WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO
20 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH AT TIMES. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM -1 C LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO TO AROUND -10 C
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
FOR FRIDAY TAKING A LOOK AT WHATS OCCURRING UPSTREAM. WHILE MOST
OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF THE INTESTATE 94 CORRIDOR. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE LAKE SUPERIOR SNOW BELT
WILL SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE...THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY NIGHT. PLAN ON LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER
TEENS OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES  WARMING BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
AFTERNOON  INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN OUT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY/TROUGH PUSH EAST OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY TAKING ANY LINGERING RAIN WITH IT. A FEW SNOW
FLAKES COULD MIX IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING BUT THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE THAT THE PRECIP WILL EXIT BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR  PUSHES IN. TEMPERATURES WONT CHANGE MUCH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WITH HIGHS RAINING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA. ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY
SNOW TO AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL ABRUPTLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 30.21Z AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS INTO THE MIDDLE 20 KT
RANGE. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS. SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL COVER THIS WITH VCSH FOR NOW. BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY FRONT...BUT EXPECT CLEARING
CONDITIONS AFTER 31.05Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WETENKAMP
LONG TERM...WETENKAMP
AVIATION...ROGERS



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