Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 281110
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
610 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLUSTERY/COOLER CONDITIONS TODAY ALONG
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN ND
WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IR
IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWING SOME CLEARING WORKING EASTWARD INTO THE
WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARX FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.

FOR TODAY...LOOKING FOR THAT CLOSED LOW OVER ND TO TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN WI. PLAN ON SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW. THINKING SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL STAY
NORTH OF I-90. OTHERWISE A BLUSTERY AUTUMN DAY IN STORE AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG WITH FAIRLY DEEP MIXING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
MIDDLE 50S.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER NORTHERN WI CLOSE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL LOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW. A FEW
FLAKES MAY EVEN MIX IN AT TIMES OVER NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE LOWER 30S. THE REST OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SOME
CUMULUS BUILD-UP FOR AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94 AS LINGER COOLER AIR
ALOFT/SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERS THERE. THE REST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN...BUT IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH
HIGHS ONLY TOPPING IN THE 40S.

MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT NOW WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NAM
SHOWING DECENT AMOUNT OF 800-700MB WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. FEEL THIS
FORCING SIGNAL IS ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A SMALL-END CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR SOME REBOUND IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS WELL...TOPPING OFF
IN THE 50S.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...FEATURING A FAIRLY VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH WISCONSIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEST FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO
AREAS NORTHEAST OF I-94. CARRIED 20-30 POPS THERE FOR SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS
COLDER AIR SPILLS IN. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATION RIGHT
NOW...BUT IF SHOWERS GET VIGOROUS ENOUGH...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT DUSTING. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS
ACROSS THE AREA LOOK TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.

COOL/DRY CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS...CHILLY TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF
ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S/MIDDLE40S FRIDAY AND IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S
SATURDAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE HIGH
SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
PLAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND TO WARM AIR
ADVECTION WITH READINGS INCREASING FROM THE 40S/50S ON SUNDAY...INTO
THE 50S ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN IS WINDS. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KT
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE IN A FEW HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING
BRINGS HIGHER WINDS TO THE SURFACE. BOTH SITES SHOULD SEE 15-20 KT
SPEEDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
PLAN ON THESE WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THOUGH
GUSTS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT AT RST BEING AT A
HIGHER ELEVATION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRATUS
DECK OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE SHOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...AJ



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