Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 150843
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
343 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal today and Saturday, then more seasonable
  as a series of cold fronts usher in cooler air; continued dry
  with periods of brisk winds.

- Near-critical fire weather conditions Saturday mainly due to
  on-going drought and winds gusting 25 to 40 mph.

- Ensembles continue to show low probabilities for 0.05" or more
  of precipitation into next week (15 to 35% next Thursday)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Overview:

Beneficial rain fell across parts of northeast Iowa and southern
Wisconsin with one report of 1.70" 1W of Platteville (the PVB AWOS
had 0.67), 0.71" at PDC, 0.69" at Boscobel, and 1.09" at
Dubuque. Parts of southeast MN has some light rain overnight,
but unfortunately much of the area along and north of I90 was
left high and dry Thursday with the storm track remaining a
county farther south. This more southern track allowed warmer
temperatures along and north of I90 in the mid and upper 50s vs.
the lower and mid 50s.

Latest water vapor satellite imagery, heights, and lightning showed
the closed low over Southern California with general troughing
extending northeast through the Upper Mississippi Valley.  A robust
line of thunderstorms continued from the Dallas area northeast
through the Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys at 06Z with a few
severe weather watches out and several flash flood warning
across parts of Arkansas. Locally, winds are out of the north
and light. Temperatures at 08Z were mild for this time of year
in the 30s and 40s with a few high clouds. Two areas of surface
high pressure were noted with one over the U.P. of Michigan and
the other over the western High Plains.

Warmer than normal today, then more seasonable as a series of cold
fronts usher in cooler air; continued dry with periods of brisk
winds:

The 500mb pattern keeps the forecast area under a general northwest
flow aloft pattern through Monday.  Today through Monday, the low
levels will be characterized by steep low level lapse rates which
will enhance mixing and lead to periods of stronger winds and
drier low level dewpoints. It is a cold air advection pattern,
thus it will make temperatures more challenging when deeper
mixing occurs.

Upstream, note the warm front over Manitoba with light echoes over
parts of Saskatchewan.  Cold air advection persists today with
northwest low level winds becoming westerly by evening with the mid-
tropospheric trough working into Ontario.  Ceilings across the
Dakotas vary from VFR to LIFR. Forecast of relative humidity
show drying through the day as this area moves southeast into
the local area. Some of the clouds are expected to reach the
forecast area during the afternoon/reach the convective
temperature with cool air aloft, meanwhile, deeper mixing
develops with breezy winds. The moisture looks shallow, thus
think it will not hinder high temperatures rising into the 50s.

Tonight, the trough deepens over Ontario with an increasing low
level jet and warm air advection ahead of the cold front. Snow
is forecast well to the north of the area and have some
sprinkles or a sprinkle/snow mix in north of I94 tonight. Some
of the hi-res models hint at some light sprinkles/snow mix with
the front farther south. For now will keep some silent 5 to 10
pops in due to the clouds expected to accompany the cold front
and steepening low level lapse rates Saturday. Even stronger
cold air advection occurs Sunday and lasts into Monday. Highs
Sunday and Monday are forecast to remain in the 30s with 850mb
temperatures dropping to -10 to -16 deg. C. It will be a period
of stronger wind gusts with gusts 20 to 40 mph Saturday. The
stronger gusts in the open areas of SE MN/NE IA, 20 to 35 mph
Sunday, and 20 to 30 mph Monday. See the FIRE WEATHER section
for more details.

Above normal temperatures return Tuesday through Thursday.  The
mainly dry pattern continues outside of some minor light rain/snow
potential with the back-door cold front Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. The current high
cloud deck will gradually clear up by the early morning hours.
Northwest winds on Friday will increase to 10kts to 15kts
across the area. More mid to high level clouds will return by
late Friday evening however, the CIGS will be between 15kft and
20kft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Today through Monday look for low relative humidity values of 20
to 40 percent. Brisk winds are forecast during the period with near-
critical fire weather conditions Saturday for those area that
did not see the soaking rains mainly due to the on-going
drought and windier conditions with gusting 25 to 40 mph. The
relative humidity of 30 to 40%, clouds and temperatures 40 to 54
are not as favorable , but dry fuels are present. Caution
should be used if burning and during the periods of stronger
winds, burning should be avoided.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Zapotocny
AVIATION...Cecava
FIRE WEATHER...Zapotocny


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