Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 171809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1209 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...This Afternoon
Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

With only intermittent rain and drizzle expected this afternoon,
little additional glaze was expected to occur. Due to this opted
to let the Winter Weather Advisory to expire on time and then
replace it with a Special Weather Statement which would talk about
the secondary and less traveled roads remaining slippery until
they are treated.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 217 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Water Vapor imagery/RAP 500mb analysis shows tightly wound mid-level
low (responsible for the Monday/overnight icy mess across our area)
spinning northeast through northern Illinois early this morning.
Radar was showing out area pretty much void of precipitation with
just hit/miss showers. Stretched deformation area between that
northern IL low and trough pushing southeast through MN was
producing a band of wintry mix precipitation from southeast MN into
northern WI. Otherwise...quite an icy mess left over across the area
from freezing rain. Some fog has formed overnight with light winds
and ample lower boundary moisture. Not really dense at this point,
but will be keeping a close eye on visibilities through this
morning. Temperatures across the area as of 2 am were in the
lower/middle 30s.

Aforementioned deformation forced mixed precipitation will drift
east across the area early this morning...affecting areas mainly
along and north of I-90 through mid-morning...then
diminishing/exiting the area by early afternoon. As such, and with
the morning commute in mind, will keep Winter Weather Advisory
headlines in tact until noon or until improvements are noted.
Portions of the area may be trimmed out of the headline if
improvements are noted. Otherwise, will have plenty of stratus to
contend with today with relatively mild mid-January highs in the 30s.

High pressure builds in tonight with stratus diminishing from west
to east. Temperatures expected to dip into the 20s. So, expect some
refreeze of melted off glaze/snow. This could cause some slick spots
on untreated roadways and sidewalks. High pressure remains in
control though Wednesday for partly cloudy skies and mild highs in
the 35-40 degree range...much needed to melt off/hopefully dry any
left over icy mess. Could see some refreeze problems again Wednesday
night from daytime melt-off as lows dip back into the 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 217 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

January thaw will be in place through the period with highs in the
upper 30s/lower 40s. Am a bit concerned for stratus/possible fog
potential given the thaw and release of moisture into the lower
boundary layer. As such and unfortunately, looks to be mostly cloudy
through the period. Also, appears there will be on/off precipitation
chances through the period as increasing southerly flow sets up over
the region.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

With the BUFKIT soundings suggesting that the clouds would linger
longer into tonight, delayed the trend for clearing and improving
ceilings and visibilities. It now looks like LIFR/IFR ceilings
will continue through the afternoon and then gradually become MVFR
this evening and VFR overnight. It now looks that it will become
VFR at KRST around 18.08z and at KLSE around 18.12z. Visibilities
will improve rapidly to VFR by early evening.




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