Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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000
FXUS63 KARX 312336
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
636 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VERY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY BUILDING HEIGHTS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE HIGH
WILL PROVIDE A DRY EAST FLOW OVER THE AREA THAT WILL KEEP THE DEW
POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S. BECAUSE OF THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR...ONLY
EXPECT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS AS IT PASSES BY. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE PATCHY FROST FOR THE FAVORED COLD LOCATIONS BUT NO
PLANS FOR A FROST ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOWLY MODERATING WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST
SPOTS BY TUESDAY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO GET FLATTENED AS ENERGY
COMES OUT OF THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITIONED ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. ONCE THE WAVE MOVES
PAST...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE MOVING ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD THEN TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO START THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BEFORE A NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM CANADA FOR NEXT SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND IS
THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OUT UNTIL THE WAVE COMES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH
FOR SUNDAY. IN THIS PATTERN...THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES JUST
ABOUT EVERY DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN LOOK TO COME THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE 31.12Z ECMWF SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH CAPE AROUND TO SUPPORT THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS WELL BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LACKING SO SEVERE
CHANCES LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 6364 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A BROKEN DECK OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 01.08Z...AND THEN SKIES WILL CLEAR.
THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BOYNE



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