Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 232334
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
634 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Main impactful weather concerns are on rain chances this evening
into Wednesday.  Focus then turns to rain chances, with the
potential for a few thunderstorms, later this week into the
weekend.

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue across the area
as low pressure continues to impact the region. The low responsible
for this activity will slowly move south and east late tonight into
Wednesday. Surface based CAPE this afternoon has been pretty low,
generally in the 100 to 200 J/kg range south of Interstate 90. A
couple of very subtle boundaries to keep an eye on for potential
cold air funnels. Mainly one across far southwest Wisconsin and
another over central Wisconsin. Any thunderstorms that interact
with this boundary may produce a few funnel clouds. This potential
will quickly diminish by this evening with the loss of daytime
heating. Shower chances linger into Wednesday then we will finally
dry out a little by Wednesday night as high pressure edges in
from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Thursday will be a dry day across the region, during the daytime
hours anyway, as the upper level ridge moves through. Plan on
pleasant weather on Thursday with highs climbing into the upper
60s to lower 70s under partly sunny skies. A couple of weak
shortwaves move through the area Thursday night into Friday. At
this time, the main timeframe for any showers and storms appears to
be Friday morning. Flow aloft then turns zonal Friday afternoon
into Friday night with a couple of weak shortwaves noted for
continued low chances for showers or perhaps a couple of
thunderstorms. Stronger forcing for precipitation arrives Saturday
into Saturday night as a trough dives into the Upper Mississippi
River Valley. Forecast models are in pretty good agreement with
this idea, so plan on periodic chances for showers and some
thunderstorms through the Memorial Day weekend. Plan on high
temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s. Memorial day looks to be the
coolest day with highs will mainly be in the 60s along with
continued chances for showers an maybe a few thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

The area of low pressure at the surface was beginning to make some
very slow eastward progress late this afternoon and was now
southwest of KDLL. The low will continue to ease away from the
area as the upper level low swings southeast across Iowa into
Illinois tonight. With the slow movement of this system, not
expecting much change in the airmass to occur overnight and the
models are also suggesting a good slug of wrap around moisture in
the deformation zone on the northwest side of the surface low.
With this moisture trapped in the cyclonic flow, ceilings should
gradually come down overnight to IFR/MVFR. There may also be some
light fog overnight with all the low level moisture that is in
place. The 23.18Z NAM forecast soundings show saturation occurring
at the surface despite the surface winds staying in the 5 to 10
knot range. Will introduce some MVFR visibility reductions for
KRST and may have to do so for KLSE as well with later forecasts.
Conditions should improve slowly Wednesday with KRST going up to
VFR by mid afternoon but look for KLSE to be stuck with MVFR
ceilings most of the day.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Minor flooding will continue along portions of the Mississippi
River this week. Flooding is forecast to continue on the
Trempealeau River at Dodge through Thursday. Monitor river
forecasts closely if you interests along these rivers.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wetenkamp
LONG TERM...Wetenkamp
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...Wetenkamp


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