Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 230449
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

At 3 PM, high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, was
producing light winds and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures were in
the lower and mid 60s. This is just a couple degrees above normal.

For tonight and Sunday morning, a Canadian cold front will move
south through northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. With the
soundings only showing some very shallow moisture near 800 mb,
only some scattered clouds are expected with this front.

On Sunday afternoon, the front will become stationary across
north-central Wisconsin. High temperatures will be in the lower
and mid 60s north of the front and range from upper 60s to mid 70s
south of this front. Like the past couple of days, the dew points
seemed a bit too high, so lowered then by 3 to 5 degrees. This
lowered the relative humidity values into the mid to upper 20s
along and south of Interstate 94. Fortunately, the winds remain
rather light, so there will be fire weather concerns.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

From Monday afternoon into Wednesday, a series of short troughs
will move through the region. The first of these troughs will move
through on Monday night. Much of the forcing and moisture
transport associated with this wave will remain north of the
area. As a result, kept rain chances in the 20 to 40 percent
range. Also with this wave being even a bit further north than
previous model runs, the cold front only moves through parts of
southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa on Monday night and Tuesday
morning.

Another short wave moves through the region from Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night. This wave is much further south. This results
in much stronger moisture transport and synoptic lift. As a
result, there will be a much higher chance of rain (60 to 80
percent). At this time, it looks like this system will produce up
to an inch of rain.

From Thursday night into Saturday, the models continue to struggle
with the timing of a short wave trough ejecting out of the
Southern Plains. The GFS is much faster than either the ECMWF or
GEM. As a result, the GFS moves the rain into the area much
sooner. Opted to trend more toward slower ECMWF and GEM and
lowered the rain chances from Thursday night into Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

VFR conditions to continue through Sunday evening. High pressure
remains centered from Nebraska into southern Wisconsin late this
evening. This will slowly sink south through Sunday as a cold
front drops toward the area. The front should make it into central
Minnesota and northern Wisconsin Sunday afternoon before stalling
and then starting to return back north Sunday evening. There could
be a few afternoon cumulus clouds ahead of the front, otherwise,
just some high level clouds expected. Light southwest winds
tonight will go back to the west Sunday ahead of the front and
then go south/southwest for Sunday evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Through Monday Evening
Issued at 334 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

The Black River is currently causing minor flooding at Galesville
WI. This will continue through Sunday afternoon.

The Trempealeau River is currently causing minor flooding at Dodge
WI. This flooding will continue into Sunday evening.

The Yellow River at Necedah will continue to rise above flood
stage this afternoon. Minor flooding is expected through Monday
evening.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boyne
LONG TERM...Boyne
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...Boyne


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