Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 250758
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
258 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING STRETCHES FROM NEAR GREEN
BAY WI TO OLWEIN IA...MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. ALL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS NOW ACROSS NORTHEAST WI INTO THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MI. FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY 12 UTC. IN ITS WAKE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH
SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID CONDITIONS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION.

FOR TONIGHT...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT-WAVE ALOFT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHEAST IA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WI...ALTHOUGH THINK MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 12 UTC SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 60S
WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

PRIMARY CHALLENGE FOR NEXT WEEK WILL BE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN SYNOPTIC PATTERN...OVERALL
CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE IS LOW UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL USE A
BLENDED SOLUTION OF THE 25.00Z GLOBAL MODEL SUITE...BUT WILL FAVOR
THE DRIER ECMWF/NAM SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO THE MUCH WETTER GFS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS SETS-UP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A SERIES OF ILL-RESOLVED EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVES WILL RIDE
THE RIDGE...BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DAILY
TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE PROFILES WILL ALLOW MUCAPE TO CLIMB INTO THE
1000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...LITTLE TO NO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UNIMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LIMIT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. FOR THESE REASONS...CAPPED POPS IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY THAN WET.
DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...EXPECT MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MUCH DEEPER EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS
TIME...A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWEEP ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMING WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...BUT
WITH MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AN 80
TO 90 KT 300 HPA JET STREAK...WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER STORMS. WILL KEEP CONSENSUS LIKELY POPS TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER IN THE DAY
BEFORE THE FRONT...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER
80S IF NOT THE LOWER 90S IN SOME AREAS. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE
70S...MAKING FOR ANOTHER MUGGY DAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...CONDITIONS WILL MORE
COMFORTABLE WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH LESS HUMIDITY.
SOME LINGERING CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT
MAKES A COMPLETE EXIT FROM THE REGION. OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIP MAINLY
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SOME STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PAST
KRST...BUT KLSE STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO BRING BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME WIND GUSTS THROUGH 07Z OR SO. WITH THE ACTIVITY
LOOKING ISOLATED...WILL CONSIDER A VCTS...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP PCPN
OUT OF FORECAST UNLESS RADAR DICTATES ITS NEEDED.

WINDS GO WEST POST FRONT...AND THEN WILL SHIFT NORTH ON SAT.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK


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