Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KARX 242034
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

WE WILL BE DROPPING THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN SHORTLY AND
DOWNGRADING TO AN ADVISORY. SNOW CONTINUES BUT WE DONT FEEL WE
WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE 4.5 TO 5 INCHES THERE. A HIGHER END ADVISORY.
SNOW SHOULD BE ON THE SLOW DOWNWARD TREND. HAVE ALSO ENDED THE
ADVISRY AT 06Z/12AM LIKE OTHER ADVISORIES.

COLLABORATED THIS DOWNGRADE WITH NWS SULLIVAN AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CURRENTLY...A DEEPENING LOW WAS LOCATED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE...STARTING TO DRAW COLDER AIR IN
OVER THE ARX FORECAST AREA. RADAR/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING MAINLY
AREAS OF RAIN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHILE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...RAIN WAS CHANGING/HAS MADE THE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A VERY POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI. PLAN ON THIS WAVE
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WISCONSIN TODAY WITH STRENGTHENING 700-
500MB FRONTOGENESIS. IN ADDITION...BUFKIT SOUNDING/-12 TO -18C OMEGA
FOR GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL BE BLOSSOMING FOR AREA EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR SOME
GOOD SNOW RATES. COULD SEE SNOW RATES OF 1/2-1 INCH/HR. RIGHT
NOW...LOOKS LIKE AREAS OF CENTRAL WI WOULD BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH
INDICATIONS OF SNOW TOTALS OF 5-7 INCHES FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES
FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT. FARTHER WEST...TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...IT APPEARS ANYWHERE FROM 3-5 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THIS
EVENING...TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT. WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...WHICH WILL BE DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER STORM
DYNAMICS...PLAN ON SNOW TOTALS TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING OF 1-2
INCHES. TO COMPLICATE MATTERS...LOOKS LIKE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH OVER MORE WIND PRONE AREAS
WILL PRODUCE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW.

AS SUCH...HOISTED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTY IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN VALID 9 AM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY AND EXPANDED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...TO INCLUDE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
MISSISSIPPI UP TO THE WARNING IN CENTRAL WI.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH TODAY INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED FRO TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC AS
THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STRATUS LINGERING UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE BACK TO COLDER THAN NORMAL WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S.

LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A FAIRLY POTENT MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SURFACE LOW DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
THROUGH IOWA. ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL
PRODUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS TO BE COLD AND DRY AS SOME MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THAT DEPARTING LOW. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY IN THE
TEENS TO A FEW LOWER 20S.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS OUT
THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION.
THEN...LOOKS LIKE A MINI-WARM-UP FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. APPEARS HIGHS WILL CLIMB
FROM THE 20S ON FRIDAY...INTO THE MIDDLE 20S/LOWER 30S ON SATURDAY.

PLAN ON A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY SUNDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING BACK
INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

BULK OF HEAVIEST SNOW HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AIRFIELDS. IN FACT
KRST DEVOID OF SNOW FOR THE TIME BEING. RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE
BACK EDGE OF THE MAIN SNOW AREA SHOULD PUSH EAST OF KLSE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT BACK EDGE WILL SLOW OR
EVEN STALL FOR A TIME. MEANWHILE...BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WAS SENDING SOME SNOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS MN
AND THAT LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE
MOST PART TAFS WERE ISSUED TAKING THESE FACTORS INTO ACCOUNT. BUT
ONE OTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS IS
OCCURRING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IA WHERE THE DEEPER CLOUD AND
SUPPLY OF ICE HAS MOVED OUT. FEELING FOR THE TAF LOCATIONS WAS
THAT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THEM AS THE ICE CLOUD SOURCE WOULD
LINGER LONG ENOUGH FOR THE CLOUD INFLUENCE FROM THE NORTHERLY
SOURCE TO ARRIVE. BY TUESDAY MORNING...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARING
AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS AWAY.

LAST CONCERN IS BRISK NORTHWEST WIND. EXPECT SPEEDS TO CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP AROUND 30KTS THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING AS THE INFLUENCE FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WANES.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ017-
     029-032>034-041>044-053>055-061.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ088-
     096.

IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR IAZ011-
     030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM....DAS
AVIATION...MW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.