Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 192332
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
632 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL ALLOW
A COLD FRONT TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THIS FRONT THEN STALLS NEAR THE INTERSTATE 90 AND AND 94
CORRIDORS ON SUNDAY. 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS RATHER
WEAK AND PARALLEL WITH THIS FRONT...SO KEPT THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT
RANGE.

ON SUNDAY...THE 925 MB AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS A BIT MORE
CONVERGENT ALONG THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES
CLIMB INTO THE 250 TO 750 J/KG RANGE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THIS...INCREASED
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP A BIT HIGHER. WITH THE 0-3 KM AND
0-6 KM SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS...NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH THE FRONT FINALLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THAT MOST UNSTABLE CAPES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. IN
ADDITION...THE 0-6 KM SHEAR DOES EXCEED 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER THE
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE CAPE IS VERY SKINNY...SO NOT OVERLY
CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH STRONG 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...THE 50-60 PERCENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STILL LOOK GOOD
FOR NOW. HOWEVER WILL LIKELY HAVE TO RAISE THEM EVEN MORE AS WE
APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE GFS HAS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES IN THE
250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE ALONG THIS FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER BOTH THE 0-3 KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR REMAINS LESS
THAN 30 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

FROM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...A STRONG COLD
FRONT AND NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE REGION. THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB INTO THE 500 TO
1000 J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LIKE YESTERDAY...THERE
APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPER CELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IF THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THIS WILL BE THE
CASE.

FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE 850 AND 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
ZERO C...SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING. AS A
RESULT HAVE KEPT THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY SINK TOWARDS THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. A BAND OF SHOWERS HAVE FORMED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
LIKE THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...THEY ARE ALSO MOVING VERY SLOWLY.
SOME OF THE SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO RST AS EARLY AS 01Z...BUT
OVERALL BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN COME AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY
AFTER 09Z. THE RAIN COULD TAKE ON A PERIODIC OCCURRENCE ON
SUNDAY...BUT FOR NOW JUST KEPT PREDOMINANT SHOWERS. ANOTHER
REASON FOR THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE RAIN IS DRY AIR PRESENT ACROSS
THE TAF SITES...WHICH WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS TO CONTINUE THIS DRY AIR FEED...CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY VISIBILITIES COULD DIP TO MVFR IN
HEAVIER RAIN...BUT WHEN THIS WOULD OCCUR IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
ADDITIONALLY...SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BUT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND TIMING PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME.

REGARDING WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD OCCUR AROUND 06Z AT
LSE...BUT IT IS VERY MARGINAL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS CRESTING FROM GENOA TO GUTTENBERG FROM
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ONLY PLACE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED FLOOD STAGE ALONG THIS STRETCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS
MCGREGOR. FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BETWEEN 0.35 AND
1.00 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED FALL. DUE TO THE LONG DURATION...NO
FLOODING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS RAIN. HOWEVER...IT WILL KEEP RIVER
LEVELS ELEVATED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...EASTER
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE AREA WILL RECEIVE ITS FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN ON AN EASTER
SINCE 2008 /MARCH 23RD/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE RECEIVED 0.03
INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 0.02 INCHES. WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...IT WILL BE LIKELY THE WETTEST
EASTER SINCE 2006 /APRIL 16TH/. ON THAT EASTER...LA CROSSE
RECEIVED 0.54 INCHES AND ROCHESTER RECEIVED 1.20 INCHES.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...AJ
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
CLIMATE...BOYNE



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