Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 171731
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1131 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Welcome to April!

Models are, and have been, in solid agreement on a significant warm
up for the region this weekend. All build an upper level ridge
across the region today, shifting it east tonight as a shortwave
slips across southern Canada, with more ridge building then for
Sunday. 850 mb temps progged to jump from around +5 C at 00z last
night, to +15 C by 00z Sat. A slight cool down Sat but right back to
around 7-8 C Sun. NAEFS 850 mb temp anomalies close to +3 for today
and sits from +1 to +2 Sat/Sun. 925 mb move from +2 C to +14 C
today. Lots of warm air a loft - can we tap into it? Bufkit
soundings still have February and snow cover on their mind, and keep
a strong sfc inversion in place all day today, weakening somewhat
through the weekend. Doesn/t seem reasonable given the lack of snow
cover now across the local area. A lot more sun today compared to
Thursday, with mostly sunny conditions favored for the rest of the
weekend. So how will this play out for out temperatures? Source
region isn`t that far away with low-mid 60s across central Iowa
Thursday. Won`t push it that far, but a few locations have a good
shot of breaking 60 today and Sunday. Near record to potentially
record heat.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Models in pretty good agreement with sliding an upper level west
coast trough eastward to across the Upper Mississippi River Valley
by 06z or so Tue. Some hints that it could link up with what
eventually becomes a cutoff low in the southern flow - but whether
or not it would doesn/t appear to have a big impact on the resulting
sensible weather for the local area. A decent fetch of 850 mb
moisture transport leads the system into the region, along with some
low level warming. Frontogenetic forcing fairly meager at this time
and limited/if any instability indicated. Plenty of saturation per
bufkit soundings/relative humidity fields. Expectations would be
for a band of showers to move through Mon/Mon night - and with
temps so warm, it would fall as liquid. Don`t see a thunder threat
at this time.

No end to the unseasonably warm conditions as broad ridging is
progged to move right back in post the quickly moving trough. While
not looking as warm as this weekend, highs 10 to 20 degrees above
the mid Feb normals are anticipated.

The GFS and EC point to a cool down for the following weekend with a
storm system slated to drive across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

A warm front will work its way across the area today and then be
followed by a very weak cold front tonight. High pressure will
then settle in over the region for the weekend. Not much sensible
weather is expected with these front with only a wind shift from
the south around to the west. Wind speeds should remain around 10
knots or less, but there will likely be some speed shear for KLSE
this evening. Stronger wind speeds above the inversion of 30 to 35
knots will be in place until the cold front moves through and
these settle down a few hours behind the passage of the front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 321 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Temperatures will be some 20 to 30 degrees above normal Friday
through Monday.

Here are some record highs and record high lows for La Crosse and
Rochester for Friday February 17th through Monday February 20th:

                          Record Highs
                          ------------

             La Crosse                     Rochester
            -----------                   -----------

Fri (17th)    64/1981        Fri (17th)     63/1981
Sat (18th)    64/1981        Sat (18th)     60/1981
Sun (19th)    59/1930        Sun (19th)     59/1930
Mon (20th)    61/1930        Mon (20th)     60/1930

                         Record High Lows
                         ----------------

Fri (17th)    41/1981        Fri (17th)     35/1981
Sat (18th)    38/1981        Sat (18th)     37/1954
Sun (19th)    38/2002        Sun (19th)     36/2002
Mon (20th)    41/1930        Mon (20th)     34/1954

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...04
CLIMATE......DAS



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