Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 232305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
605 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Cold front slated to push eastward from the Plains to across the
Upper Mississippi River Valley by 12z Tue, getting a shove by an
upper level shortwave trough swinging northeast from the northern-
central Plains. The low level jet/moisture transport noses into
northern MN by 18z Mon, pushing into and across an west-east running
warm front. The combo of this interaction with the upper level
trough should be a broad area of showers across northern parts of
the region, with perhaps a few showers farther south ahead of the
front. Little if any instability, so don`t see much of a thunder
threat at this time.

Should see a better shot for some rain locally as another shortwave
trough tracks through the central plains and into the cold front
later tue afternoon-night. 50 kt 850 mb jet pointing into southwest
WI by 00z Wed, but better upper level jet support is shifted into MN
as a 300 mb jet streak runs from IA into northwest WI. Models place
the higher rain threat mostly behind the cold front, from northwest
IA into northwest WI - more associated with the shortwave. Don`t see
much of a thunder threat with any of this activity either as
instability holds mostly south.

Yet one more piece of upper level energy is progged to move
northeast into the cold front Wed/Wed night. Trends in the
NAM/GFS/EC suggest enough transition east with the front that the
higher rain threat would be across IL into southeast WI. It should
be noted that it looks cold enough to support snow...especially
north of I-94 Wednesday night. Could be some minor accumulations on
grassy surfaces - but wouldn`t stick around very long.

Overall, its going to be a wet start to the week, but on the plus
side, the heavier rains could fall just outside the local area.
Amounts likely wouldn`t negatively impact the already high river

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Another round of wet weather for the region looks likely next
weekend. 500 mb trough/closed low over the desert southwest is
progged to lift northeast to across parts of the Upper Mississippi
River Valley Sunday. Some differences in placement/timing between
the GFS and EC, but both agree on widespread rain accompanying the
system. Nice push of gulf moisture with the low and another 1-2
inches certainly possible. The rain would keep it rather cool with
highs in the low 50s - about 10 degrees below the late April


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

VFR conditions will continue through Monday. An area of low
pressure over South Dakota will lift northeast into northern
Minnesota by late Monday afternoon as a short wave trough moves
across southern Canada and the Dakotas. There will continue to be
lots of low level dry air in place ahead of this system, so only
look for some high level clouds/ceilings with this system. The
gradient will tighten ahead of this system Monday to push the
sustained south winds into the 15 to 20 knot range. Once the low
level inversion breaks Monday morning, good mixing will create
gusts of 25 to 30 knots.


Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Near critical fire weather conditions expected for parts of
southwest into central Wisconsin Monday afternoon as minimum
humidities fall to near 30 percent and brisk south winds produce
gusts upwards of 30 mph (sustained 15 to 17 mph).




LONG TERM....Rieck
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